I'm duplicating the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You can read it there if you prefer. Or if you really want to comment online.
Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.
In case you missed it on Substack: A Land Mission in the Persian Gulf
In case you missed it on Substack: Europe is a Crucial Staging Area
In case you missed it on Substack: Blood, Mud, and New Technology
In case you missed it on Substack: Strengthening Both Pillars of the Trans-Atlantic Alliance
The shockingly bloody 1859 Battle of Solferino led to the Red Cross and “the Geneva Convention of 1864, the first international treaty to establish legal protections for wounded soldiers and medical personnel.” Sadly, proliferating NGOs have become the logistics arm of war factions.
This last week Team USA defeated the Canadian men’s and women’s hockey teams to win gold medals; and Canada discovered its per capita GDP is less than Alabama’s, our poorest state. I think we can kiss that F-35 sale to Canada goodbye. You’re welcome, Sweden.
Securing the Western Hemisphere: “A major Mexican resort town was under siege on Sunday as drug cartels lashed out after the leader of the brutal Jalisco New Generation Cartel was killed in a military raid, authorities said.” Alert “Blackjack” Pershing.
The Axis of El Vil crumbles: “Cuban security advisers and doctors have been leaving Venezuela as Interim President Delcy Rodriguez's government faces intense pressure from Washington[.]”
Russia provided Venezuela a lot of weapons. It would be hilarious if one form of American aid was sending S-300 SAMs and “dozens of Su-30 jet fighters, hundreds of armored vehicles including T-90 tanks and scores of artillery systems, mainly multiple rocket launchers” to Ukraine.
American relations with African states wouldn’t suffer from “history” so much if we didn’t fixate on our slavery—that we ended at high human cost—to the exclusion of African slaves sent to the Islamic world in larger numbers (with no surviving ancestors) and the Africans who sold the slaves.
This ignores a great difference: “Trump’s performance on the other current challenge by a major U.S. adversary–Russia’s invasion of Ukraine–does not provide comfort to the government and people of Taiwan.” Taiwan is our main defense line. Ukraine is well forward of our main line of resistance.
The Mexican-American War. My view is that is was impressive militarily; in line with contemporary norms that Mexico shared; and that Mexico’s inherited and largely sparsely populated imperial territory inherited from Spanish imperialism denies them sainthood.
An American-Israeli strike on Iran must include targeting defensive and offensive missiles. The other targets will tell us if we are trying to destroy or weaken the mullah-run government. Will we emphasize Iranian internal security assets or hit economic and power projection targets?
Will Trump choose a deal with Xi that sacrifices Taiwan? Trump’s ambivalence about defending Taiwan is part of a long line of ambiguity—America doesn’t want to give Taiwan the power to provoke China and drag America into a war.
More on the cartel-related violence in Mexico.
This is true: “The A-10 Thunderbolt II (‘Warthog’) Isn’t Just an Airplane — It’s a Promise Kept to Ground Troops”. It was always about trust and not the plane, which in fairness is very old. I’d settle for F-35 dedicated close air support squadrons.
Russian aircraft nose around former Russian territory: “Five Russian aircraft were intercepted by the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) while flying near the Alaskan coast Thursday.”
Amidst trans-Atlantic kerfuffles, that’s boring (other than to the sailor): “Denmark’s military said its arctic command forces evacuated a crew member of a U.S. submarine off the coast of Greenland for urgent medical treatment.”
Will Russia pay for North Korean military help by sharing nuclear weapons technology? Maybe. But it is something China should worry about, too.
Let’s end that talk about America siding with Russia, okay? “A new Army National Guard unit took over the training of Ukrainian forces in Bavaria this week[.]”
It’s a dangerous region: “A major war is imminent in East Africa.” I’ve been worried.
Sure, side with the communist tyranny: “Canada announced Monday that it is working on an aid package for Cuba as it faces blackouts and severe fuel shortages worsened by a U.S oil embargo.”
American special forces are training for Arctic warfare. Good.
I thought this was old news: “Russia's SVR foreign intelligence agency has taken over mercenary group Wagner's influence operations in Africa[.]”
Coincidence? “Iran was rocked by fresh protests across its universities over the weekend as fears rise of US military intervention against the Tehran regime.”
If the CCP implements policies to encourage it, will the people trust the CCP enough to spend rainy day savings? “As China’s rate of economic growth slows, the country’s leaders have become increasingly concerned that the economy remains overly dependent on investment- and export-driven growth.”
Sh*t got real: “U.S. State Department on Monday ordered all non-emergency personnel and their families to evacuate from the American Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon.” Tip to Instapundit.
Expanding the fleet better not require increasing personnel: “The American navy, like most other navies, is suffering from a shortage of new personnel, causing a problem with providing ships with enough sailors.”
Russia is touchy about their Barents Sea SSBN bastion. Indeed. Tip to OPFOR Journal.
How can the Navy bolster sailor retention by shortening their second cruise when first-cruise sailors are part of the crew?
2027: “The Air Force and Northrop Grumman have struck a $4.5 billion deal to speed up production of B-21 bombers by 25 percent.”
C-130 variant: “The Pentagon has secured $194 million to build the first of a fleet of new ski planes that will support troops flying over the Arctic and Antarctic.”
America and Japan exercised to set up outposts on Japan’s Ryukyu Islands prior to any war. A2/AD isn’t a monopoly of China’s.
South Korea complained to America about the recent U.S.-China aerial standoff over the Yellow Sea?
Delivering blood with drones [video].
Canada and Denmark both use MQ-9B drones, which may provide a basis for cooperation in Arctic ISR.
The Army wants its 600-mile range Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) anti-ship variant faster. Also, moving ground targets.
Designed to thwart submarines, “the ADC MK6 generates acoustic signatures that confuse and divert incoming torpedoes, adding a critical layer of undersea protection.” Is there a weakness to exploit?
Is a Compact of Free Association between America and an independent Greenland really superior to just working with NATO ally Denmark and its Greenland possession to define increased American usage of the island?
As the crisis over Iran’s mullah regime grows, “nobody cares about the EU. Because it has simply become insignificant.” That’s good for America—and for Europeans who value freedom. European countries should want to be significant actors.
Is Peru on track to align with America and reject China?
Is optimism over Lebanon disarming the Hezbollah state-within-a-state justified?
Can Mexico treat the disease rather than the symptoms? “The Mexican state will continue to offer up big-name cartel figures ad infinitum, but their elimination alone changes little. What would be transformative is bringing to account the politicians who enable, protect and promote cartels.”
Congress recommends policies to end the persecution of Christians in Nigeria. The broader problem is—as a kindergarten teacher might say—that Islam doesn’t play well with other children.
Does “Europe” want to be Western? Well, "Western civilization” predates the spread of democracy and freedom. But if you mean a free West, “Europe” as defined as the EU absolutely does not. But many Europeans who the EU fanboys fear and despise do.
Smuggling Starlink terminals into Iran had something to do with this: “Students at Iran's Sharif University of Technology launched a new wave of anti-regime protests over the weekend, calling for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death and clashing with government security forces[.]”
Via Instapundit, some random guy inadvertently took control of 7,000 Chinese-made robot vacuum cleaners. Suddenly my F-35 pucker factor skyrockets. I know ALIS was replaced. But the plane is very networked.
If we don’t deal with Iran now, the next time will be harder: “Iran is close to a deal with China to purchase anti-ship cruise missiles[.]”
The Ukrainians and Russians are exploiting UGVs for logistics and rescue missions. That does seem promising. But I am not impressed with UGVs as a replacement for armored combat vehicles.
Ukraine has become a “steel porcupine.” Sorry, that’s not nearly good enough.
Docking? Why? “The USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest aircraft carrier, is set to dock in Haifa as part of US reinforcements in the Middle East, amid rising tensions with Iran.” I wondered if Ford was bringing something vital. Is it delivering something?
Sure: “Russia is betting on its submarines and experimental nuclear weapons to make up for the smaller military force that it fields compared to NATO, a top Norwegian military official told Business Insider.” Sea nukes defended by subs. It’s Russia’s only hope.
Survival of the fittest Ukrainian brigades in combat. Help from family and friends is interesting, as I addressed in this post about digital camp followers.
“Battleships” and ship class evolution.
What’s going on in France? Tip to Instapundit.
Fascinating that Russia’s KIA seems to be about four to eight times greater than Ukraine’s. Ukraine eventually explicitly organized its defenses to kill Russian troops as the priority over holding (or liberating) territory.
Also—and you don’t see me slapping my forehead—Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza that sidelines the United Nations has the feature of escaping a Chinese or Russian (of French?) Security Council veto. Well played, sir.
Did the Pentagon warn Trump that military action against Iran will make the U.S. military’s magazines too empty to fight China? If I may be so bold, if that warning was given, it is also true that America doesn’t have enough to fight China even if we don’t attack Iran.
In space, nobody can hear you experiment: “China's reusable space plane is circling Earth once again.”
Simply surviving in the Arctic is a skill to learn even before you test your skills and equipment in EOD in that environment.
A pilot in an experimental aircraft turned over control to an AI to evade a simulated missile attack. And AI for the F-35. Is the future going to be C/Fe rather than C or Fe?
I can see low-threat fronts being held by 12 troops on a 5-10 km. front, but I suspect the infantry shortage is real but exaggerated by the examples given. I’ve also read that on Ukraine’s 1200 km. front they have built 2200 platoon strongpoints to hold the line.
Rising sun: “Japan plans to deploy upgraded air defense missiles on its westernmost island — within sight of Taiwan — by 2031[.]”
Israel decided not to let their officers’ cars spy on them for China.
South Korea’s bunker-busting precision ballistic missile will have to do for coping with North Korea. Until South Korea puts nuclear warheads on them.
The Marines are buying a mobile light mortar system. I had to find an article about the Army looking at it to see it is an 81mm weapon. Before (and after) small drones, mortars allowed infantry to reach out and touch someone.
There’s some validity to this: “From China’s perspective, sustained Iran-U.S. tension – short of full-scale war – can be strategically advantageous.” But don’t let it stray into Looking for Mister Good War paralysis in the face of a massive threat.
The importance of Taiwan’s integrated air defense system.
Excellent overview of trade policy and tariffs for national security purposes since 1945. No less true even if Congress must put that presidential weapon on a broader legislative foundation.
Threat: “Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Ground Forces units held an exercise on February 24 at the Madinah ol Munawarah Operational Base near the Strait of Hormuz[.]” Shield?
Toss in the fact that the mullahs have been waging war on us for nearly fifty years and this sums it up: “In his speech, Trump pointed to Tehran's support for militant groups, its killing of protesters and the country's missile and nuclear programs as threats to the region and the United States.”
The threats of Russia, China, and jihadis couldn’t get Canadians to enlist or spend more on defense. But the threat of Trump did the trick? Whatever. LOL.
Egad. If NASA can’t restore its culture of innovation that works that led to landing on the Moon, perhaps it should just be the minor league team for the private space companies. Tip to Instapundit.
Self-criticism is good. Self-hate is not: “Sracic said that the West has been engaged in years of self-criticism. ‘Instead of focusing on our achievements, we have been obsessed with our sins,’ he noted. ‘This has undermined our confidence and our unity.’” Tip to Instapundit.
Not sure what happened, but if American civilians in a boat decided to shoot it out with a Cuban patrol boat a mile from Cuba’s coast, that was fatally stupid. But we’ll see.
I reject the military punishing Senator Kelly as a retired officer still subject to the UCMJ for his “unlawful orders” video. But the video was hyper-partisan. To avoid conflict of duties, retired officers serving in Congress or other partisan national office should resign their commission and forfeit their pension.
Friends in need recognized our help: “Six pilots and crew from a New York National Guard helicopter unit made a pair of flights into an active firefight in 2023 to rescue a team of French special forces soldiers who had been ambushed by Islamic State fighters.”
The HAVOC conventional hypersonic missile can be launched from ground, air, sea, and space launchers. The story implies the military will get this. Also, thus far China and Russia work on nuclear hypersonics while Congress bars such work here—for now.
A CRS report to Congress on Yemen and Red Sea security.
Sh*t got real: “Several countries have begun withdrawing dependents of diplomatic personnel and non-essential staff from some locations in the Middle East, or advising citizens to avoid travel to Iran[.]”
I resent the claim that America redefined its alliances by requiring allies to do enough for their defense to earn our help. One, it is practical. A weak ally may not survive long enough for us to help it. And two, haven’t weak allies already redefined the alliance into one where we fight and they don’t?
The U.S. deployed F-16s and a Burke-class destroyer to Diego Garcia. Just in case the Iranians have long-range suicide drones. I assume the F-16s have counter-drone rocket pods. I think an A-Whacks plane would be better.
Is using a UAV to spoof other aircraft a Chinese test to disguise drones during an attack on Taiwan? Maybe. But if Taiwan sees hundreds (or thousands) of innocent airliners heading to Taiwan, they’ll suspect something is off.
Is war going to return to Ethiopia’s Tigray province?
Is China’s future a nightmare and not a dream? “Behind the Chinese illusion of strength lies a Soviet-style system sustained by subsidy, suppression, and the ongoing exhaustion of its own foundations[.]” The essay says China is following the USSR’s economic development path. Could be right.
We assume Xi’s military purges are about corruption: “In China, corruption in military procurement is an ancient and destructive tradition.” I start from the assumption that the PLA’s primary mission is to preserve CCP control of China.
The Pentagon-Anthropic dispute.
The 45th U.S-Thailand Cobra Gold exercise once again kicks off—with 30 countries participating.
Space Force: “Officials insist there are no plans to deploy troops in orbit, but commercial infrastructure and cislunar ambitions are reshaping the debate[.]” I patiently await SMOD.
On the bright side, we can shoot down small drones along our border.
The Army ordered a lot of Switchblade suicide anti-tank drones.
Sounds good to me: “The Royal Navy’s First Sea Lord Gen. Sir Gwyn Jenkins plans to hold a Navy summit in April as he calls on his service to take the lead in uniting Northern European navies against Russia’s growing threat in the Arctic and Atlantic.”
Remember when Pakistan backed the Taliban against America in Afghanistan? “Pakistan declared “open war” Friday on Afghanistan, after the two South Asian neighbors traded overnight attacks in a sharp escalation of their long-running dispute.”
AI is not a military planning breakthrough. Maybe stop calling it Artificial Intelligence. Call it Artificial FUBAR.
Is Cuba’s communist government shaky enough to fall?
We’ve had liberty so long that too many have forgotten to value it: “The real problem is the decline of the idea of liberty itself, as a governing principle, and of its advocates and defenders.” This is what Vance was talking about.
Apparently, China’s new carrier cannot launch and recover aircraft at the same time, meaning its sortie generation is just 60% of a Nimitz class.
Sh*t got real as America orders non-emergency staff and families in theIsrael embassy to evacuate.
Suspicious Russian real estate purchases in Finland. I assume this is a problem throughout the West. We really should all closely scrutinize such deals.
Here we go: “The US and Israel have launched an attack on Iran.” It appears one purpose is to give Iranians the chance to overthrow the mullah regime. But without tying our objective to their success. Targets hit may tell us if we think the mullah regime will fall.
Despite Ukraine’s modifications to the Abrams tanks it has received to counter drone attacks, Ukraine has failed to operate them in a combined arms team—the ultimate means of protection and lethality.
Shield: “Israel is to call up around 70,000 reservists, most of them air defence specialists and home guard troops, a military spokesman said on Saturday.”
Exactly! “The development of sophisticated anti-missile and counter-drone platforms could reintroduce maneuver warfare to Ukraine—and modern war planning more generally.”
Kharg Island has been a big target question for me. Destroying the oil export hub would hurt the mullahs. But it would also hurt a new government if the mullahs fall. Apparently we narrowly hit a power plant, meaning the hub is down but more easily restored.
Reading views of people I respect on the Iran strikes (or any other issue) doesn’t offend me. I view their differing views as challenges to my analysis and not a personal attack. Or they’re just wrong, of course—but not evil. I annoy people across the spectrum, so it is really a survival strategy.
I hope the Pentagon is alert to the potential threat worldwide from Iran using missiles or masses of small drones fired from standard shipping containers hidden on civilian ships.
Going to note that hurting Iran will reduce Iran’s ability to supply Russia with weapons and ammunition to hurt Ukraine.
A kindergarten teacher would say Islam doesn’t play well with other religions: “Nigerian Christians are being slaughtered. Call it genocide.”
Chinese biolabs in America seem like a big effing deal to me.
