Is Russia going to settle into vassal status under China's thumb? Or will it stand up and finally pivot east to the real threat?
I've long figured vassalage is the path Russia is on. The war against Ukraine is accelerating that journey. This author looks at the question:
To what degree will Russian dependency on China continue after the war? I predict this dynamic will be centered on two competing forces: China will serve as the economic lifeline for Russia, with the latter expected to align within the former’s sphere of influence. At the same time, Russia will attempt to reduce this dependency by developing alternatives to China with success depending on its level of geopolitical isolation following the war.
In the short run, Putin wrecked his military enough to require him to continue his post-Soviet policy of appeasement of China while he rebuilt Russia and its military. The result should be alarming in Moscow:
Russia is increasingly dependent on China for economic support and help in rebuilding an economy ravaged by more than four years of war in Ukraine. China is willing to help, but not as an ally but as a patron for its new Russian client state. China seeks to turn Russia into a vassal state.
In the long run, to break free Russia will have to erase the long-term need for China and the pointless and insane framing of NATO as a threat to Russia. Does anybody doubt Europeans would reverse rearmament if Russia pivoted east and stopped behaving like total a-holes?
If Russia can admit that China is their primary enemy, as Russia rebuilds its military--again--it could have the power to organize resistance to China if Xi's priority of undoing the Century of Humiliation hits too close to home, and earn NATO support to do so.
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NOTE: I made the image with Bing.
