The Russians are seemingly extending more effort to gain control of internal information production and distribution even if it harms military operations against Ukraine. Huh.
The war goes on. I hoped Ukraine might have a strategic reserve to mount a counteroffensive to exploit Russian casualties and communications problems. But on the bright side, they are at least doing what I've long hoped they could achieve as a Plan B--local, sharp counter-attacks against the spearheads of Russian attacks to punish the Russians for pushing forward away from their trenches and support.
Notwithstanding Ukraine's local initiative, Russia continues planning for a spring offensive:
Russian forces have likely begun artillery and drone preparation of the battlefield for the anticipated Russian Spring-Summer 2026 offensive against Ukraine’s Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast.
At some point the Ukrainians have to stop trying to advance and start digging in lest their counter-attacks simply make them more exposed to the Russian offensive.
The Kremlin has been intensifying its efforts in recent weeks to restrict access to Telegram, WhatsApp, and other Western social media platforms, news sites, and internet services as part of broader efforts to regain control over the Russian information space and dismantle the open internet in Russia. The Kremlin has been manufacturing justifications to ban Telegram in order to coerce Russian citizens to abandon other messaging apps for the state-controlled messenger app Max. The Kremlin may use its expanded powers to create an information blackout in the event of a possible mobilization or to further tighten state control over the Russian information space.
The military impact of Russia losing access to its Starlink terminals has been well covered. I don't hear as much now about the impact of restricting Telegram use which Russian troops had adopted for communications. Or is Max working as a substitute for Telegram? If so, it doesn't seem to have coped with the loss of Starlink, too.
The interesting part is why Putin has ordered this despite the impact on his invasion. Is it to block public online expressions of dissent for a future mobilization? Just the fact that Putin is worried about that reaction is significant apart from the need to supplement recruitment with mobilization of civilians for the military's attrition campaign. Putin is not acting like a confident tsar:
The recent intensification of this campaign suggests that Russian President Vladimir Putin may not be as confident in his regime’s stability entering the fifth year of his war in Ukraine as he was earlier on.
Why is Putin worried about public dissent now? His regime has coped with that well enough so far. Is Putin really more worried that people in power are unhappy with the war? Might people blame Putin and the war for their growing problems?
With the Ukraine War taking half the government budget, the [Russian] government had to reduce what was usually spent on many items essential for the population.
Does he worry they could use Telegram and other social media platforms to exploit public online dissent in order to lead a coup under cover of public protest? And to rally support for the coup?
I made this recommendation in a March 2022 column: "The best way out of this stupid, murderous war -- for Russians, for Ukrainians, the rest of the world, including greedy oligarchs -- isn't more sanctions or more war. The way out for the oligarchs is a Kremlin coup toppling Putin. The gallows humorists call it a nine-millimeter solution -- a bullet to the insane man's head."
Once we worried a coup could be by a pro-war faction eager to fully wage the war. At this point, is anybody unhappy about Putin really convinced that Putin hasn't warred hard enough?
Sheer speculation on my part. But this crackdown is different. Why is it different?
How interesting are these times?
NOTE: ISW updates continue here.
NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
NOTE: Image from here.
