The United States sent more aid to Ukraine.
In cyberspace, no one can hear Russia scream in failure.
As persistent surveillance linked to firepower (or police power) expands, the race to hide from that network proceeds.
ISW assessment: Belarus is supporting Russia's invasion of Ukraine with its territory, bases, equipment, and facilities. Russia pushes Belarus to support it more, which has the effect of more completely ensnaring Belarus in the Anschluss. This threat requires Ukraine to guard its border with Belarus. But Russia is unlikely to push Belarus to wage war on Ukraine. Which would have only a temporary boost for Russia given Belarus military weaknesses and internal dissent.
And now for something completely different:
Statistical proof of racism caused by wildly different definitions of hurricane deaths. Which is why I always say to check the definitions section. Mind you, I have no strong opinion on which definition is correct. But pick one only before making damning charges.
Iran's mullah regime begins executing the resistance. Executing protesting or resisting Iranians may or may not break the resistance. But it also could break the solidarity of the ruling mullah class.
This is shocking: "Three of the Royal New Zealand Navy’s nine ships are now docked at the Devonport naval base indefinitely, due to insufficient personnel." I mean, who knew New Zealand has a navy?
America and its allies are trying to stop jihadis in Niger.
Camp Blaz, the future home on Guam for American Marines leaving Okinawa in the next several years. If America island-hopped in World War II at the rate this uncontested move is taking we'd still be fighting Imperial Japan in the Pacific.
Ukraine is working hard to attack Russia's fuel supplies directly and by interdicting lines of supply. Russian troops will lack mobility and even heat to survive if it gets bad enough. But: "Although this will not end the war, this move will allow the Ukrainian counteroffensive to make significant gains this winter." As I've noted, you can't break an army if you don't attack it.
And now for something completely different:
The Ukrainian War and the debate on massed versus precision firepower. I've noted this issue before. Until Ukraine, I thought precision was winning, notwithstanding my worry about precision-targeted mass. Although to be fair, with two militaries unable to attack and punch through enemy lines to create a war of movement, artillery has more ability and opportunity to use mass fires. We'll see if Ukraine manages to punch through Russia's lines and observe how artillery functions in a non-static battlefield.
Yeah, I think I've noted Russia's efforts on this: "Russian saboteurs were at work over the past eight years going after Ukrainian ammunition storage. There are reports of some 210,000 tons of munitions being destroyed prior to the February 24th invasion." Especially near a major Kharkov arsenal.
Belarus will allow Ukraine to ship grain through its territory to Lithuanian ports. Interesting.
Germany will deploy Patriot air defense missiles to Poland, ending a pointless diplomatic spat Poland started with Germany around that issue.
Fuck the teacher unions and damn their leaders to Hell.
How people can believe 2 + 2 = 5.
The friends of the Taliban--the Russians, Chinese, and Pakistanis--are being targeted by jihadis inside Afghanistan. How will the jihadis act toward America when the jihadis get back their global reach from Afghanistan sanctuaries?
China had 3 years to "bend the curve" and still will likely see their health establishment overwhelmed by a Covid wave. Tip to Instapundit.
How the Great Firewall of China was overwhelmed by angry Chinese subjects. I'm not the first to say this, but China's advancing economy hasn't led to freedom in China. Yet.
China's expanding nuclear arsenal. Note how assumptions can vary what you see. As I've said, surprising an enemy is less about hiding what you are doing than in convincing the enemy there is a benign explanation for what they see.
Russia could run out of reliable rocket and tube artillery ammo in "early 2023." Does that mean by June? Also: "Because their ammunition stocks are 'rapidly dwindling,' Russian forces are likely using more ammunition in 'degraded conditions,' which may not fire or explode correctly, the official said." I wondered about that. Russia would reduce usage before just running out. Can Russia match production and imports to their usage?
Balance of really fast terror: "The Air Force on Monday carried out the first live-fire test of its first hypersonic weapon, which can travel at least five times the speed of sound, according to service officials."
The Russian air force was actually much more active over Ukraine early in the war in air defense suppression missions. Air power is very useful. But I think that if you can greatly degrade or nullify an enemy's air force--or if they don't have much--that you can succeed with ground-based firepower to support your troops. I base this on centuries of gunpowder warfare before planes were invented. Pretty bold, right? Still, bolstering Ukrainian fighter aircraft strength would be helpful. Here's a way.
Huh: "Viktor Bout, the Russian arms dealer the US swapped for WNBA star Brittney Griner last week, officially joined a far-right, ultranationalist party, which could set him up for a seat in the Russian parliament."
Maybe if America didn't pretend Afghanistan a nation-state rather than tribes and clans, we could have done the same: "A determined but often chaotic uprising by clan militias supported by Somali government troops has forced the al-Shabab militant group, one of al-Qaeda’s wealthiest and strongest global affiliates, onto the back foot, say Somali and U.S. officials."
A C-17 as a ground-based refueler. That's nice. I guess. But I always shake my head when I see alternate uses for our already inadequate airlift. What secondary capabilities project our power abroad, eh? I'd grimace no less watching a B-21 unloading pallets of MREs and water bottles.
British negotiations with Mauritius will have an effect on whether America's leased Diego Garcia base can continue its vital role in protecting the Indian Ocean. Britain, of course, uses the island.
Slovakia prepares to give upgraded MiG-29s to Ukraine.
Remember, Russia has a history of admitting Crimea is part of Ukraine. The record on the Donbas is just as damning of Russia's current claims.
Estimated casualties in the war: Ukraine (13,500 – 16,500 killed; with WIA four times the KIA). Russia and Donbas proxy forces (16,028 – 19,028 killed; with WIA four times the KIA).
The Altay tank is armored with corruption.
The broad outline of Japan's rearmament.
Wait. What? I thought Democrats loved illegal immigrants?
Gosh, why don't I trust the media?
Israel continues to wage war on Iran inside Syria.
I honestly think Democrats want Republicans to take out Biden. All the while complaining--with massive media support--they are victims of horrible MAGA Republicans who must be defeated by a more sentient Democrat in 2024. But I'm cynical that way.
The right to die evolves into the duty to die and eventually becomes an order to die.
As a rule I side with incompetence over malice as an explanation. But I'm willing to consider a deliberate effort to anger a voting base: "9 million people received emails that mistakenly said their student loan forgiveness was approved [.]" Via Instapundit.
Insider trading? It could be coincidence, of course.
Germany announced a deal to buy 35 F-35 fighters. In part this continues Germany's ability to carry American nuclear bombs.
State of national emergency in Peru.
Will Russia renew its offensive on Kiev in early 2023? Or the Russians could reinforce the Donbas front where the infrastructure of an active--if unsuccessful--offensive already exists.
Is this a sign of Chinese friendship or a Chinese opportunity to loot a desperate Russia? "China's President Xi Jinping ordered Chinese officials to forge closer economic ties with Russia, offering a lifetime from punishing Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine, The Wall St. Journal reported." My bias is not to see significant Russian-Chinese alliance activities. I need to be careful about that lens.
Russia is warning of consequences if America sends Patriot air defense missiles to Ukraine.
This seems prudent: "Vietnam has conducted a major expansion of dredging and landfill work at
several of its South China Sea outposts in the second half of this
year, signaling an intent to significantly fortify its claims in the
disputed waterway, a U.S. think tank reported on Wednesday." Defend them before China takes them.
The Army's new light tank gives infantry added punch to take on enemies who generously decline to support their infantry with heavy tanks. Also, the MPF can be airlifted! LOL. Years ago I read that airlifting a Stryker brigade to South Korea would take longer than shipping it by sea. Smaller units could be airlifted faster, of course. Assuming the Air Force makes it a priority.
China bans the export of its Loongson CPU to Russia because it needs them for its own military uses. Huh. Russia should really worry about that.
Is Iran's economy going to be significantly disrupted by protests?
The people for whom naming the ship Fallujah is a controversy don't like the Navy very much anyway. We killed a lot of jihadis there, especially in the second battle. Commemorate the battles there.
I'd wondered why I haven't heard much about this lately, but Russia's officer corps continues to suffer heavy losses.
Interesting: "The Russian military has burned through its munitions stockpiles so quickly since it invaded Ukraine nearly 10 months ago that Russia’s armaments industry cannot keep pace with the need for more artillery shells and rockets."
I'm just pulling out two things from this article on the EU's response to Russia's invasion. Europeans agree Russia is a threat and while reacting quickly Europeans don't have a vision of what victory is. Sure, when Russia invaded it was easy to unite around the initial vision of victory centered on preventing Russia from overrunning Ukraine. Once past that, objectives will diverge. Who will provide leadership for Europe then? A European state? America?
An argument for providing ATACMS to Ukraine. In one sense, Russia's escalation to a war against Ukraine's cities and civilians negates our motive to avoid escalating the war. That ship sailed with wrecked utilities inside Ukraine. I'd rather help Ukraine build their own longer-range weapons from local components. That said, I can't say I'm against the proposal.
Strategypage reports that 20,000 foreigners have volunteered to fight for Ukraine.
In some ways, the new B-21 is more like a scaled-up F-35 than a smaller B-2.
I call BS: "China is the ultimate long-term planner, and we’ve never been able to replicate that in Washington." The Chinese do not have some genetic or mystical planning magic. And if they do, what good has it done them? America spotted China several thousand years of planning and here we are debating if China can overtake our economy and position in the world.
Elon Musk is settling business to protect his family.
Nice work if you can get it: China's neighbors would like to trade with China and have American power to balance China and guarantee their interests against Chinese pressure and aggression. They don't want the problems associated with siding with America? Ponder the problems associated with China defeating them. It's a delicate balancing act for America. We need to be strong enough for China's neighbors to resist China. But weak enough to encourage them to arm up.
Coal use increased in 2022. Clearly, Russia isn't able to find alternate customers for all of its oil and natural gas sales no longer going to Europe.
Every other illegal immigrant gets a free pass into America. But not somebody who fought on our side. He should have been able to enter legally.
Statements like this wouldn't get attention or traction if there was any transparency at all with home surveillance and police body camera video showing what happened at the Pelosi home that night. I assume authorities are buying time for the videos to somehow get lost or accidentally erased. Tip to Instapundit.
Are economic problems in small countries around China's periphery one more set of problems for China? I wonder if China may find intervening in some of them a way of integrating them into China's economy more effectively. Looking at you, Mongolia, while Russia is too busy in Ukraine and too reliant on Chinese trade to object.
The way Russia is willing to throw men and material into Ukraine's meat grinder at Bakhmut--a city with no real operational value for Russia--perhaps Ukraine should rename the small city to Zelenskygrad to really encourage Putin to kill off his army there.
About that Russian "hybrid warfare" so many Western analysts flung their panties at: "But many of the alleged innovations of hybrid warfare – disinformation, psychological warfare, political disruption – have been around since warfare began." Ahem. Pretending to support local rebels is not new. Buh bye.
Is Putin visiting Belarus to put pressure on Lukashenko to further integrate Belarus into Russia? And will the visit include maximizing the role Belarus could play in a Russian winter offensive on Kiev in 2023? Lukashenko continues to resist Russian control as much as he can.
I heard some speculation about China's navy operating in the Arctic based on melting sea ice. Pray tell, how does the Chinese navy get past Alaska to reach the Arctic?
I don't know what I got that is still hanging on to me after two weeks. It isn't Covid. I had that, and it's different. And in most ways was not as bad. And I had a flu shot. It seemed like a bad cold, but after getting mostly better I had a partial relapse. Dunno what it is. Not really bad but hangin on. It is interfering with life. Maybe my system got lax? I haven't been sick since before the pandemic. So could be. Tip to Instapundit.
Signs of Iranian resistance getting more desperate and serious: "Iranian security personnel clashed with prisoners in Karaj, Alborz Province on December 17, reportedly killing one and injuring up to 100 others." Iran kills dissidents abroad, too, where stirrings of revolt among exiles grows.
Own goal in the Middle East? Ignoring the problem doesn't make it go away.
Diversifying Europe's energy away from Russia. But well within range of Russian power to interdict. More non-Russian energy infrastructure.
Why did Kherson fall so quickly and easily to the Russians in the initial invasion? Did the army need to save itself to fight another day? Or was their collaboration contributing to the lack of defense? Still unclear. But I have long wondered why there was so little defense there and across the south--especially on the constricted terrain leading north out of Crimea.
Don't forget the NORAD Santa tracker for our little ones!
