Are Russians aware of and sick of the slaughter Putin has inflicted on their men? Is a desperate bid to kill more Ukrainians worth the deaths of so many ill-prepared and reluctant civilians forced to wear a Russian uniform?
Putin is pushing virtually untrained and ill-equipped troops into the line to stop Ukrainian counteroffensives and to maintain an offensive in the Donbas. Putin is bolstering those new levies with veteran survivors of the Kherson front after withdrawing east across the Dnieper River to reduce the need for troops to hold that shorter front behind the river line. Russia is getting a respite during the mud season. As the ground freezes, cross-country movement will be restored until deep winter bitter cold adds new problems to overcome.
Honestly, this level of crisis that Putin is stoking might just provoke enough powerful and ordinary Russians to wonder if Putin himself is the foreign plot to destroy Russia. Could Putin end up hanging from a lamp post by his heels before this is over?
Or at least end his continued rule? Just how long will the Russian cannon fodder show up to do and die?
I only ask because after Ukraine savaged the Russian ground forces and seized the initiative, Ukraine has not been able to inflict a serious military defeat on the Russian occupiers. Sure, Ukraine took back significant amounts of territory in the east near Kharkov and on the Kherson front. But neither counteroffensive broke the Russian army and sent it fleeing back to Russia.
I expected a lot more during the autumn. Which I guess technically has a little more time.
If Ukraine can't take advantage of this moment of advantage to conduct winter offensives, Russia can eventually train and equip enough troops to fill that capabilities gap in Ukraine's favor to some extent. The Russian units won't be great, but they may be adequate. Perhaps enough to hold what Russia still occupies even if not enough to resume an offensive in the spring. And I can't rule that offensive option out.
Maybe Putin's destruction of the Russian army and sacrifice of cannon fodder to hold the line until spring will be his own undoing. But it is risky to count on your enemy defeating itself. But is that all Ukraine can do despite its often impressive performance thus far?
UPDATE: ISW writes:
If Ukraine’s allies and partners do not support Ukrainian forces to conduct large-scale decisive counteroffensive operations this winter—as the DNI’s statements might be construed to suggest – then Ukrainians‘ ability to conduct maneuver warfare will be constrained until likely at least after the spring mud season in March 2023.[14] Such a course of action will likely prematurely culminate Ukraine‘s current momentum and grant shattered Russian forces a valuable three-to-four-month reprieve to reconstitute and prepare to fight on a better footing.
That's my worry.
UPDATE: Russia's war against the cities continues: "Russia has fired a barrage of missiles at targets across Ukraine for the eighth time in eight weeks."
UPDATE: ISW discusses the latest Russian missile barrage and the Ukrainian drone "Doolittle Raid" on two Russian air bases deep inside Russia.
UPDATE (Thursday): Again, this is my worry:
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg stated that the Russian military seeks an operational pause in winter 2022-2023 to regain the initiative and conduct a counteroffensive in spring 2023[.]
It would be even more worrisome to me if Ukraine cannot continue their counteroffensive over the winter.
Putin, who met in a televised meeting of his Human Rights Council, said the "special military operation" could go on for a long time, and called Russia's annexation of part of the territories of Ukraine a major achievement of the operation.
Are the Russian people really fine with their role as cannon fodder for Putin's sick glory? Maybe string the SOB up by his heels from the nearest lamp post, eh?
UPDATE (Saturday): Shaping the battlefield:
Ukrainian forces’ interdiction campaign against Russian military assets and logistics hubs in southern Ukraine has likely degraded Russian forces, their logistics lines, and broader Russian morale.
UPDATE (Sunday): Because of Russia's persistent attacks on Ukraine's civilian infrastructure, the U.S. no longer objects to Ukraine striking targets in Russian territory. Not that Ukraine didn't strike some targets in Russia already. Does this mean new weapons to enable that will follow? Or just the components Ukraine needs to make their own?
UPDATE: The Russians are importing Chechen security and administrative personnel to carry out a more brutal control of Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory. As long as Ukrainians feel they will be liberated, I see that as more likely to inflame resistance than suppress it.
NOTE: ISW war updates continue here.
