Back in the day, I wanted to be an intelligence analyst. Life paths change. I'm happy with my life, but I know I'd have welcomed the challenge of connecting dots while actually having the ability to check those dots and connections against reality.
This is thin gruel, I admit. And I assure you I am working on the assumption that this is merely an imagination-filled picture. But this is a blog. So what the heck.
This starts by assuming that the reports that the plane had navigation gear turned off and that the plane flew for some time after that are accurate:
Analysis of the Malaysia data suggests the plane, with 239 people on board, diverted from its intended northeast route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing and flew west instead, using airline flight corridors normally employed for routes to the Middle East and Europe, said sources familiar with investigations into the Boeing 777's disappearance.
What if the missing plane is related to an attempt by Iran to buy a North Korean nuclear warhead and get it (or them) from North Korea to Iran?
Consider that there were two Iranian men traveling on stolen passports. Yes, the terror angle was ruled out from whatever background they looked into. But Iran could get two men for something this important with a clean background, could they not?
Consider that Iran and North Korea have nuclear ties. North Koreans were killed when Israel bombed that nuclear reactor secretly being built in Iran's close ally Syria back in 2007 (I think that was the year).
Consider that China seems to be getting worried about North Korea's nuclear drive and North Korea doesn't trust China much these days. China seems to be improving their ability to invade, while telling us that China reserves the right to deal with North Korea; as well as dueling with Kim Jong Un over the loyalties of the elites. So North Korea needs money in case China cuts them off.
Iran has money. Iran has more money with the suspension of some sanctions.
I've long thought that Iran would not approach the red line of having their own enrichment capacity for nuclear bomb-level fuel without having a nuclear weapon already on hand to deter a disarming strike campaign.
So what if Iran bought a nuclear weapon from North Korea and is trying to get the weapon to Iran before the interim nuclear deal negotiating period is over this summer?
What if last year's first-ever trip by the Iranian navy to the Pacific was related to moving the warhead from North Korea to Iran? Perhaps Iran didn't want to risk the United States Navy intercepting the ships on the trip across the Indian Ocean. So it was left somewhere along the path. And it was moved to an airfield. Heck, perhaps the Iranians had an airfield built just for this mission.
What if this plane is another leg of the trip? Could the Iranian navy have moved the warhead someplace on the route? And this plane was hijacked to some remote airfield in order to pick up the warhead and fly it the rest of the way to Iran?
And one more thing:
From high-resolution satellites to advanced warships, China's military build-up is on full display in the hunt for a missing Malaysian jetliner - putting Asia on notice as to what Beijing might do in the future to further assert its regional presence. ...
One aerospace and defense industry source with years of experience in the region said the Chinese response would stick in the minds of its neighbors.
"This is a demonstration of force in a peaceful context," said the source, who declined to be identified because he was not authorized to speak to the media.
China has deployed four warships, four coastguard vessels, eight aircraft and trained 10 satellites on a wide search area far from mainland China. Chinese media have described the ship deployment as the largest Chinese rescue fleet ever assembled.
This is theater to impress others? Could be. It could be that China is stinging from its earlier failure to respond to the massive storm destruction that swept across the Philippines last year. Indeed, it is probably very likely.
But if I was the paranoid type, I'd wonder if China was deploying the largest search fleet supported by 10 satellites for a missing plane or a missing nuclear warhead.
I'd be thinking that China is worried that a North Korean link to a nuclear Iran would prompt America to attack North Korea's nuclear facilities to prevent further proliferation and sales to Iran, and that I want to avoid having to make good on that red line I set for America and South Korea by preventing a pretext for attack.
The biggest search effort in their history would certainly make sense in this context.
If I was paranoid. Or writing a book.
But I'm not in the intelligence community. So I don't have the ability to check on dots and connections and see that any key element (or all) are mere speculation, and this scenario is merely the result of a fertile imagination.
I'll have to think about the book angle.
