Sunday, February 02, 2014

When the Reasonably Enlightened Autocrat Goes

Thailand, which has been an American ally for a long time--including being the last bastion standing in mainland southeast Asia at the nadir of our influence after the fall of South Vietnam--is in for some rough times.

Thailand's ailing king is fading as a stabilizing influence (tip to Instapundit):

It’s unwise to understate how important King Bhumibol is to modern Thais. When he ascended to the throne in June 1946 he immediately sought to reverse years of decline in the power of the Palace, which had become politically powerless and financially broken. He soon established himself as a beloved figure in the eyes of millions of Thais. ...

The king, the army and the Thai business elite stood together and with the United States during the Cold War. Thailand was the last domino standing when Indochina fell to the communists in the 1970s, and the ties between Thailand and the United States strengthened afterwards as Thailand’s booming economy tied it more closely into the US-based international system.

King Bhumibol, now 86 years old and said to be in poor health, has been on the throne for more than 60 years. ... No other figure is trusted by as many people to work out compromise solutions and despite the constitutional limits on monarchical power, the king’s soft power (combined with the army’s unswerving loyalty) give him a uniquely powerful role.

The ethnic divisions and divisions between the rural-based majority ("red shirts") and the urban "yellow shirts" minority (which has the advantage of location) could break Thailand's peace without this king.

Good thing we pivoted to Asia. I'm sure we're right on this. Oh wait, Kerry is pursuing a Nobel Peace Prize peace deal between Palestinians and Israel.