Tuesday, January 01, 2013

Strong Enough to Fight

Another sign of the Syrian government's relative weakness compared to even ill-armed rebels is that the rebels actually fight Syrian forces rather than rely on IEDs, car bombs, and mines.

These are weapons of the weak and are way down the escalation ladder of insurgencies that must pass through stages of remote weapons to demoralize the government and scatter them, to small-scale ambushes to pin government units into garrisons, to organized small units battling government units to defend freed territory and compel the government to hold with or move in larger units to avoid defeat, to larger units that can take and hold territory from the government.

Governments win by atomizing the insurgents so that troops can be scattered into small posts without much risk of being overrun in order to control territory and inhibit insurgent movement and recruitment by protecting/controlling the population. Government patrols and convoys don't need to be major efforts to avoid defeat by insurgents units if the enemy is atomized.

In Iraq, the IEDs and mines were loud and there were a lot (because of Baathist training, money, and weapons and explosives stockpiles leftover from the Saddam era), which led many in the press to conclude we were losing. But we weren't losing. Our enemies were largely atomized and after a couple years it was rare to see attacks in platoon strength (30-50) during the insurgencies. Attacks on bases were never carried out with the intention of taking the bases. It was just to get loud bangs and media coverage. The enemy got that media coverage and the media conclusion that we were doomed to lose. Then all of a sudden we won.

In Syria, rebels are inflicting heavy casualties on the Syrian ground forces in direct combat. Despite lack of imported weapons, the rebels emphasize making weapons for light infantry forces rather than IEDs and car bombs:

At a converted warehouse in the midst of a block of residential homes in a northern Syrian town, men are hard at work at giant lathes, shavings of metal gathering around them.

Sacks of potassium nitrate and sugar lie nearby.

In a neat row against the wall is the finished product, homemade mortars. Syrian rebels say they have been forced to make them because their calls for heavy weapons and ammunition to fight President Bashar al-Assad have gone unanswered.

I'm sure part of this story is just propaganda to show the plucky rebels doing what they have to do. More important are those imported weapons from Gulf Arab sources and from the Syrian military when bases are captured.

But reports of suicide bombings are rare. Basically, the rebels are fighting the government's forces with small arms. And winning. The government forces can't endure the attrition they are enduring for much longer. They'll break, and the Assad regime will collapse, possibly retreating to their core Alawite base of support in the west, depending on how widespread and fast the collapse of the ground forces is.