Thursday, November 03, 2011

Greeced PIIGs

Lord knows what is going to happen in Europe now:

Greece's prime minister abandoned his explosive plan to put a European rescue deal to popular vote and opened emergency talks Thursday with his opponents, who reversed themselves and agreed to broad austerity measures in exchange for a European bailout.

The question of what Greece should do is one the Europeans have been wrestling with for years, now, with no resolution that seems to work. So now there is no chance of making Greeks grapple with the problem and decisively choose? Just a deal among governing elites that the people can disavow?

I think it is a mistake to let the Greek people off the hook on this. They should have been pinned down on how Greece would see this crisis through to the logical end of whatever path they take. Instead, elites will do what they want (and it might even be the best choice--I'll make not claims to know better on this, although I suspect the Eurozone should just let Greece go) and protesters will be free to squeal in horror at the results, and deny legitimacy to what the elites decide.

This could just mean the unravelling of Portugal, Ireland, Italy, and Greece, killing the Euro everywhere in Europe. What's the saying? If you wrestle with a pig you both get dirty--but the pig likes it? That sounds about right.

I confess this post was almost all about using the title.

UPDATE: I don't think the Greek referendum was a bad idea for the purpose of establishing clarity one way or the other, despite what Samuelson writes (but I respect his views--he's the only reason to read Newsweek, where he also writes). But it is true that we aren't going to be able to help with this crisis, unless we succeed in "lending from behind." We may all hang separately.

UPDATE: Austin Bay had the same reaction about democratic clarity that I had:

Papandreou gambled on democracy, and he appears to have lost. The democratic clarity the vote would have provided would have served as a tool for reform, potentially for Greece, but ultimately for the entire euro-zone. Either the euro-zone has rigorous economic standards or it doesn't. Member nations are responsible for meeting those standards.

The irony in all this is that many European elites claim that without the European Union and the Euro currency, Europe could be plunged into violence as they had in the past. But the Euro itself, offered too cheaply to nations that couldn't afford to borrow them, and an EU structure that wants to sacrifice member state freedom of action at all costs to preserve the Euro as the foundation of the EU, may in the end spark the violence within the states who find that they can't afford to stay within EU rules and don't want to live without the cheap Euros that the EU provided.

I'm sure the elites will want to blame the grubby people for this failure. And to be sure, the people share some blame. But without a referendum to establish what the Greek people actually want to do, it will not be a guilty verdict but just the prejudice of elites who always blame the peasants for unrest and war.