“We should therefore be entirely clear that it is entirely possible that Iran may be on the 2012 end of that spectrum, and act in accordance with that warning."
Pity that uprising in Iran in 2009 didn't keep rolling. But back then, we valued stability more than anything else.
Still, at least we have a candidate for what an October Surprise could be that year!
UPDATE: Th IISS, they who make the bible of global military forces, The Military Balance, think that two years is a reasonable time frame for Iran to get nukes (I assume they are the basis of the Defense Minister's statement):
Iran could make a nuclear weapon in as little as one or two years if it wished, an influential think-tank said Thursday -- but industrial sabotage and the Stuxnet computer worm had probably slowed its progress.
Evidence showed "beyond reasonable doubt" that Iran was seeking the capability to produce nuclear weapons should its leaders decide to go down that route, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said in a report.
They don't see evidence of chemical or biological programs and think that their 1-year time frame is unlikely given the technology involved to go that fast.
