Monday, February 07, 2011

Have Patience, People

This Times article discusses problems we are having in an eastern province of Afghanistan. It even includes the MSM-patented term "the resurgent Taliban" right off the bat!

The picture is of an underground government by local fighters, organized under the Taliban’s banner, who have established the rudiments of a civilian administration to complement their shadowy combat force. They run schools, collect taxes and adjudicate civil disputes in Islamic courts. And when they fight, their gunmen and bomb makers are aided by an intelligence and support network that includes villagers, who signal for them and provide them shelter, and tunnels in which to elude capture or find medical care.

We face an estimated 400 full-time Taliban with 4,000 part-time supporters. That 10:1 ratio seems to be a standard assumption of insurgencies so I don't think it represents hard intelligence: Estimate the fighters and multiply by 10 for supporters. So how good is the intel on the full-timers?

Remember, however, that the eastern areas are not part of our current main effort. That is in the south and southwest. The forces we have in the east right now are in "shaping" operations to gain intel, soften up the enemy, and otherwise prepare for the influx of American and Coalition troops when we can safely draw down forces in the main effort regions.

This is simply what war is. Have patience. Don't panic over every little thing.