Sunday, February 20, 2011

Uprising China?

Chinese authorities are awfully nervous for people claiming to be the next superpower:

Jittery Chinese authorities wary of any domestic dissent staged a concerted show of force Sunday to squelch a mysterious online call for a "Jasmine Revolution" apparently modeled after pro-democracy demonstrations sweeping the Middle East.

Authorities detained activists, increased the number of police on the streets, disconnected some mobile phone text messaging services and censored Internet postings about the call to stage protests at 2 p.m. in Beijing, Shanghai and 11 other major cities.

The campaign did not gain much traction among ordinary citizens and the chances of overthrowing the Communist government are slim, considering Beijing's tight controls over the media and Internet. A student-led, pro-democracy movement in 1989 was crushed by the military and hundreds, perhaps thousands, were killed.

Indeed, from here the chances do seem slim. But Chinese authorities didn't want to take any chances, it seems.

Of course, I worry more that the Chinese may resort to stoking xenophobic nationalism to prop up their legitimacy in the face of popular discontent and find themselves in the position of having to attack someone to maintain their nationalistic street credibility.

But then again, maybe the Chinese communist party is right to worry about a seemingly long-shot scenario of a spark setting in motion a wave of anger against the central government that leads provincial governors to split from the center to avoid being taken down by a growing mass movement.

Snowflakes have turned into snowballs that grow into an avalanche before. Best to sweep up the flakes early. Taiwan should watch closely. Destroying them could be a two-fer from Peking's vantage point.

UPDATE: Strategypage notes the nervousness:

For many Chinese officials, it's not a matter of if there will be a rebellion against corruption, but when.

Interesting times, indeed.