Mexico is struggling to avert a collapse of law and order along its northern border in a region that generates a quarter of its economic output, with two states already facing the threat of criminal anarchy.
Even after four years of dramatic military sweeps, drug cartels in Chihuahua and Tamaulipas are extending their control over large areas and the state governments seem powerless to stop them.
Mass jail breaks, abandoned police stations, relentless killings and gangs openly running criminal rackets such as gasoline stolen from pipelines are the new reality in regions once at the forefront of Mexico's efforts to modernize and prosper under the North American Free Trade Agreement.
And the shooting of two of our ICE agents (one survived) inside Mexico highlights the violence.
But we aren't at failed-state status yet. Remember that Colombia remained a functioning--not a failed--state even when communist and drug gang gunmen made large swathes of territory no-go zones for the government. This situation lasted decades until we managed to help the Colombians grind down the rebels and drug cartels to more manageable levels and begin the reconquest of the lost territory.
Unlike in Colombia, however, the lost territory would be next to us and not remote and out of sight. So we couldn't tolerate years or decades of lost territory right on our border.
Yes, there really is a war going on in Mexico, and if it keeps getting worse and Mexico loses the ability to fight the gangs in the north, we might have to return to Mexico after a century's absence. (I remember my grandfather telling me that he was deployed to the border back then when he was in the New York National Guard.)
No need to panic about this, but we need to take the problem seriously. I find it hard to believe that we can't build a fence (virtual or real) along the border (and defend it, of course, no fence can do more than slow down intruders--even the Great Wall of China wasn't meant to stop raiders from the north). We've already contemplated a border surge.
If the Mexicans lose control of border provinces, we'll need anti-tank ditches, berms, mast-mounted surveillance gear, drones, and heavily armed paramilitary border guards.
