Friday, April 10, 2009

Sanity Prevails

As I've looked for problems to worry about in the post-surge Iraq, I've focused on the Kurds. If they get carried away and decide that they can go it alone as an independent state, that could crack apart Iraq when Iraq can least afford such a contest.

Strategypage writes:

The PKK remains angry with the Iraqi government, particularly Iraq's president Jalal Talabani (who is a Kurd), Iraqi media quoted him as saying that "an independent Kurdish state" in Iraq is simply not possible. Talabani pointed out that Turkey, Syria, and Iran --not to mention Iraq-- would close off the borders of a separate Kurdish state. He is of course right. What really angered the PKK, however, was Talabani's suggesiton that a separate Kurdish state is a "dream to be found only inside our (Kurdish) poems." Talabani was calling the PKK unrealistic dreamers. He also pointed out that nine out of ten Iraqi Kurds favor a new federal Iraqi constitution -- which means the vast majority of Iraqi Kurds have concluded it is in their interest to remain part of Iraq.


It seems that the Kurds understand they can have prosperity and autonomy within Iraq, but that unilateral independence would be a disaster and cut off the notional Kurdistan from the world.

This is good news and lowers the chance that this potential bad thing can upset the glide path to peace and prosperity in Iraq.