North Korea, which has issued numerous threats concerning the launch, used some of its strongest language in its latest rhetorical blast.
"If Japan recklessly 'intercepts' the DPRK's (North Korea's) satellite for peaceful purposes, the Korean People's Army will mercilessly deal deadly blows not only at the already deployed intercepting means but at major targets," a military spokesman was quoted as saying by the North's KCNA news agency.
North Korea has deployed the newest jet fighters in its aging air force to an air field near the Musudan-ri launch site to prepare for any contingencies, South Korea's biggest daily Chosun Ilbo quoted government sources as saying.
If Japan shoots down the missile, and North Korea tries to use their ramshackle air force to attack Japan, it will be an aerial slaughter of North Korea's pilots. Japanese and American fighters will make short work of the North's junk.
The problem for North Korea is that South Korea will take no part in this air battle. If North Korea tries to make up for their losses with a vain attempt to use the only real military power they have--their large but rusting army--that makes sure South Korea gets involved. And that involvement might mean South Korea carves a no-launch zone north of the DMZ to push North Korean artillery and rockets out of range of Seoul. I'm not sure that Kim's regime could survive that.
And if North Korea wisely refrains from provoking a land war by restricting itself to air and missile strikes on Japan (American and Japanese targets), we get to play to our strengths by waging an air war against North Korean air force targets and strategic assets like nuclear and missile facilities and special forces bases. We could also hold open the option of going after their leadership.
I find it hard to believe North Korea would be stupid enough to respond to a Japanese interception of their missile launch. But they might do it anyway.
