Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Squelch This Fast

Al Qaeda in Iraq seems eager to provoke an Iranian-supported Shia backlash against Sunni Arabs in Iraq:

Twin car bombs ravaged a popular shopping area in Baghdad's biggest Shiite district Wednesday, killing at least 41 people in another powerful strike by suspected Sunni insurgents seeking a return to sectarian chaos.

In less than a week, blasts have struck the heart of Shiite traditions and unity: hitting Shiite pilgrims, a revered shrine and now teeming Sadr City in attacks that have claimed nearly 200 lives.

The once-powerful Shiite militias have so far largely held back from retaliations — and reopening memories of the back-and-forth bloodshed from Iraq's 2006-7 sectarian slaughters.


We endured the 2006-2007 effort to ignite full blown civil war in Iraq. I doubt if the far weaker combatants can succeed with this tactic, but I'd rather not take any chances. If al Qaeda gets Shias to reactivate their death squads, the Sunni Arabs could abandon the Awakening movement to defend themselves from Iranian-supported Sadrist death squads. That would be foolish and just result in the ethnic cleansing from central Iraq of all Sunni Arabs plus a long grinding fight in Anbar.

The Iraqi government would win this new war, but it is still not something we should welcome. Protecting the Shias must take a very high priority.