A near-daily, frenzied exchange of words has added to bilateral tensions that touched the boiling point after last month's attacks in Mumbai in which 179 people were killed. India says the attackers were trained in Pakistan."
I believe if India deactivates its forward air bases and similarly, relocates its troops to peacetime positions, that will be a positive step," Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi said in a televised address."
I believe by this, the existing tension in the region will be reduced," he said, calling for resumption of a dialogue suspended by India after the Mumbai attacks.
Pakistan has condemned the Mumbai attacks and has denied any role, blaming "non-state actors."
But Indian Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee refuted suggestions India was mobilizing its military and aggravating an already tense atmosphere.
"We have not escalated any tension, so where is the question of our de-escalation?" he told reporters, referring to Qureshi's suggestions on reducing tensions between the two neighbors.
So let's review why I'm worried about all this.
India is stronger than Pakistan.
India may believe that a "surgical strike" on jihadi camps in Pakistan is not an act of war against Pakistan. The Indian government may reason that America launches Predator-launched Hellfire missiles against jihadis in Pakistan without more than a formal note of protest. Why not India? And besides, the Moslem world is getting all worked up over Gaza, who'd notice one little Indian air strike?
Pakistan will likely view any India military incursion as an act of war. And Pakistan is not Gaza--limited in its arsenal in how it can respond.
Pakistan's best hope for winning a war against India is to launch a preemptive strike and hope for a ceasefire before India can gather its strength and counter-attack.
India might see Pakistani defensive preparations as preparations to launch a preemptive strike, and so build up their troops to defeat a Pakistani offensive.
Pakistan might then see Indian deployments as shrinking their opportunity to launch a preemptive strike.
Oh, and both sides have atomic weapons.
Is that Missile TOW, I see? Yes indeed, the pucker factor is still high in South Asia.
Are we having a happy new year's eve yet?
