Will economic problems lead Russia to embark on more military adventures in their near abroad?
Since Medvedev is on record as saying Russia neither fears a Cold War, nor a rupture in ties with NATO, it is not clear whether the Kremlin can dispassionately evaluate the risks it might face in any future crisis. For this reason, the Kremlin’s sphere-of-influence attitude raises the likelihood of a future crisis in its neighborhood. Russia’s economic difficulties are bound to call into question its regional leadership status. No doubt Russia will be tempted to crack the whip in the CIS to show that it remains the regional boss.
This is a risk. It is a risk for our dealings with Iran and China, too, I dare say. And it has been our problem with North Korea for years--will they abandon hope of blackmailing us into supplying lots of cash and just invade South Korea, or bombard Seoul from their DMZ positions where they have lots of artillery?
So add a paranoid Russia to the mix.
Wonderful decade we're having, eh?
