Tuesday, December 09, 2008

Tripwire

The Mumbai attack was not, as many speculated, an attempt to disrupt Pakistan's offensive in the tribal areas. The planning goes back prior to the offensive.

That doesn't mean that somebody who pretended to be the Indian foreign minister in a call to the Pakistani president couldn't have tried to exploit the attack for that purpose:

Some officials and analysts fear the hoax may have been part of an elaborate plot to provoke a conflict between India and Pakistan, thereby diverting Pakistani forces away from the fight against Islamist militants near the Afghan border.

No-one on either side believes the call was a joke as people on both sides are acutely aware of the potential for war.

However, it remains unclear who placed the hoax call, from where, and why Mr Zardari's office appears to have disregarded standard operating procedures.


The threat of war is not over. India may yet deem Pakistan's cooperation insufficient to satisfy their anger:

The [Pakistani foreign] minister also said that India's demands for the extradition of suspects in the Mumbai attacks were out of the question and that Pakistan, which has arrested 16 people since Saturday, would keep them on home soil.

"The arrests are being made for our own investigations. Even if allegations are proved against any suspect, he will not be handed over to India," Qureshi said. "We will proceed against those arrested under Pakistani laws."


The Festivus "airing of grievances" may have just begun.