All of a sudden, six nations are building aircraft carriers (the U.S., Britain, France, Russia, India and China.) For over half a century, most of the carrier building took place in the United States. ...
Why all this sudden interest in carriers? Partly it's because the United States has consistently demonstrated the usefulness of having a carrier that can quickly show up off a troublesome coast. Moreover, the 2001 operation in Afghanistan was a success partly because carriers were there, using smart bombs, to deliver a decisive amount of firepower. Thus demonstrating that, with the new, more precise weapons, one carrier can have a much more decisive impact than in the past. But partly it's because of the end of the Cold War, and a tremendous growth in world economies. Russia, China and India have larger GDPs, and defense budgets, than they have ever had. Gotta spend it on something, and carriers are a sign that you've joined the Big Boys Club.
Yes, against a backward Afghanistan, carriers were indispensible to fighting that war. But horse-mounted troops in Afghanistan worked, too. Will cavalry now make a comeback?
Carriers will always be very useful against an enemy that can't fight back at sea. And if we can deny an enemy the use of their own surveillance and targeting network while we maintain ours, our carriers won't be worthless even if they aren't themselves decisive. But in a networked environment, carriers will lose their usefulness.
Nations are embracing carriers just when they are on the path to becoming obsolete.
