The fight is surely intensifying this year as the enemy exploits their sanctuary in Pakistan. The Pakistan sanctuary is absolutely a major problem for which there are no easy solutions.
But what has been the result of the enemy actions in 2008?
Total Taliban related deaths in Afghanistan this year will probably be close to 5,800. About half of them Taliban and a third of them civilians (ten percent by foreign troops, over 70 percent from Taliban violence). The Taliban were not able to get an offensive going this year. It was not for want of trying. Taliban (and their al Qaeda allies) attacks were up by over a third compared to last year. Most of this was because of suicide bombers and roadside bomb attacks. These mostly killed civilians, even though they were primarily aimed at foreign troops and Afghan security forces. So far this year, 268 foreign troops were killed, with about 290 expected for the entire year.
So this year, with a month to go, there will probably be 5,800 dead, including 2,900 Taliban and 290 foreign troops.
Last year, the total was 7,700 dead, including about 4,500 Taliban and 232 foreign troops.
In 2006, the total was 4,400 dead, including about 2,500 Taliban and 191 foreign troops.
In 2005, there were 1,700 dead, including about 850 Taliban and 130 foreign troops.
The attacks are up by a third over last year because of the use of suicide bombers and roadside bombs. This could be the result of al Qaeda expertise focusing on Afghanistan after mostly abandoning al Qaeda in Iraq. This is a Pakistan problem, really.
Even the past years saw increases because drug-enriched Taliban were recruiting in the Pakistan villages and sending idiot recruit cannon fodder into Afghansitan to die.
And remember that we have more troops in Afghanistan doing more fighting. Our casualties would go up just from putting more troops into the country and using them more aggressively.
We have work to do. And the work is much harder if we can't do something about the Pakistan tribal area sanctuaries our enemies have.
But don't buy the idea that we are in a crisis inside Afghanistan. The enemy is no closer to taking over the country than they were in 2004 despite the higher levels of violence starting in 2005.
