The problem is that Pakistan has only sought to keep the jihadis quiet and out of the cities rather than defeating the jihadis. Pakistan has been willing to let the jihadis survive as long as the jihadis attack Afghanistan and not Pakistanis. Only after our pressure or some jihadi bombings that kill Pakistanis have the Pakistanis sent the army in on punitive missions into the tribal areas. These army missions would end when the jihadis promised to behave inside Pakistan and after the reason for our pressure subsided.
Then the process would repeat. And with al Qaeda beaten in Iraq, more al Qaeda resources are going to Pakistan to fight us in Afghanistan. The stalemate is now at a higher level of carnage. And with more American troops scheduled to go to Afghanistan (three or four more brigades, it seems by the end of summer 2009), more American troops will die without addressing the basic problem that we can't easily solve the Afghanistan problem without getting Pakistan involved in our war.
Secretary Gates wants Pakistan to feel that fighting the jihadis is necessary for their very survival:
"The nature of the threat that they face, beginning with the assassination of the current president's wife and now most recently the attack on the Marriott hotel, makes very clear to the Pakistani government that they face an existential threat in the western part of their country," Gates told the Senate Armed Services Committee.
The remote mountainous region believed to be a safe harbor for Al Qaeda and other groups also poses the greatest threat of terrorism against the United States, Gates said in hearing testimony that underscored the dangers posed by the tribal lands along Pakistan's border with Afghanistan.
US officials have increasingly looked to Pakistan as a vital part of their strategy against an intensifying insurgency in eastern Afghanistan, which the Americans say is being fueled by militant strongholds in Pakistan.
Top US defense and diplomatic officials recently began reviewing American strategy in the region and Navy Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has specifically called for a new military strategy that encompasses both Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Gates is right, of course, about the threat the jihadis pose to Pakistan. If Pakistan will fully commit to beating these guys, it could be the last jihad by al Qaeda.
But if Pakistan won't fully commit, the problem of Pakistan remains, and we will have to solve it.
I'd rather have Pakistan join us. But do we have a Plan B just in case that relies on Pakistanis but not Pakistan?
