Ukraine faces internal problems that make them an easier target for Russia than they should be:
US Vice President Dick Cheney arrived in Ukraine on Thursday as a bitter row between pro-Western political forces in the ex-Soviet republic threatened to bring down the government.
Add in the pro-Russian faction and you have a recipe for real problems. Even in the face of Russian power, domestic forces refuse to unite or look to Russia for support in their internal politics.
This alone risks NATO membership in the short term. NATO won't accept a 51% commitment to NATO when the other 49% is pro-Russia. We can't accept a situation where successive governments exit and enter NATO depending on electoral fluctuation.
So to get into NATO, Ukraine has to settle whether they are in or out of the Russian sphere of influence. If Georgia hasn't focused their minds, I don't know what Cheney can do to persuade Ukrainians to do what it takes to join the West.
Georgia has learned the lesson the hard way and Cheney's visit to Georgia is to much more fertile ground:
Speaking during a closely watched trip to this strategic South Caucasus nation, Cheney also said the United States was "fully committed" to Georgian efforts to join NATO.
"Georgia will be in our alliance," Cheney told reporters while standing alongside Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili.
One of the U.S. administration's most hawkish figures and a longtime critic of Russia, Cheney was visiting Georgia and two other ex-Soviet republics — Azerbaijan and Ukraine — that are nervous about Moscow's intentions.
The trip signaled to Moscow that the United States will continue cultivating close ties with Georgia and its neighbors even after Russia showed it was willing to use military force against countries along its border.
The states on the periphery of Russia are being compelled by Russia to either be absorbed by Russia into a reborn Russian Empire or join the West. Russia refuses to allow a gray area.
So far these nations are willing to stand up to Moscow.
We in the West must decide whether small nations should have the right to choose their friends and alliances or whether we must accept Russia's logic that what was once theirs is always theirs.
So far America is refusing to be cowed by Russia's bluster and military adventures. Face it, since we bought Alaska from Russia, who knows how far back Moscow will go with that logic?
The Russians have told their neighbors that they are either within them or against them. Russia won't like the choices that these neighbors will make.
This people, is what alienating the world looks like.
UPDATE: More on what alienating the world actually looks like.
