Soldiers heading to war this summer are likely to see their tours shortened from 15 months to 12 months, even if troop cuts in Iraq are suspended in July as expected, the Army's top general said Tuesday.
Gen. George Casey said that while his forces are strained by nearly seven years at war, the Army can maintain 15 combat brigades in battle for at least a couple of months after July while military commanders assess the situation in Iraq.
"Fifteen deployed brigades, for us, is sustainable for a bit longer, certainly enough to cover what I would think the length of this pause might be," said Casey, the Army's chief of staff.
My amateur number crunching bears this out. To keep a brigade in the field for one year takes a little more than one brigade to account for overlap (1.15, I think). So count each brigade as 0.87 brigade equivalents for this purpose.
With 42 actual Army brigades (building to 48 in the next three years), we have 36.5 brigade equivalents on an annual basis. With one year on and one year off, that means we can support a little more than 18 brigades in the field. This matches our Iraq and Afghanistan deployments after the surge fades. You could also add about 3 National Guard brigade equivalents per year (4-5 brigades per year each serving 9 months in the field). Also remember our 9 Marine regimental combat teams that could add at least a couple regiments to the rotation in addition to afloat MEUs.
Get us down to 12 Army brigades in the field and we can get to the goal of one year deployed and two years home. Actually, the Army hopes for 9-month tours and 18 months at home (which is still 2:1):
Casey also said for the first time publicly that his goal is to eventually shorten war deployments to nine months, with soldiers getting 18 months at home between tours. One of several key factors that would enable him to do that, he said, would be to have just 10 Army brigades deployed to war -- nine fewer than there are in battle right now in Iraq.
With 48 actual brigades, we could support nearly 14 in the field at one time at a 2:1 home-to-deployed ratio. I'm assuming that the 10-brigade reference must include keeping a strategic reserve permanently constituted and out of the rotation mix and leaving out the Korea-based brigade as well.
The stress on the Army is finally waning. Add the satisfaction of victory and we will emerge from the Iraq War with a battle-tested Army and not a broken Army.
