Monday, February 25, 2008

Show and Tell

The Turkish foray into northern Iraq is quite limited:

The Turkish military said there were clashes with rebels in four parts of northern Iraq, but did not specify the locations. It said troops were destroying rebel shelters, logistic centers and ammunition. Retreating rebels were setting booby traps under the corpses of dead comrades or planting mines on escape routes, the military said.

The sound of artillery fire could be heard in the border town of Cukurca. Several military bases that support Turkey's ground incursion into northern Iraq are on its outskirts, and artillery units have been positioned on hilltops overlooking Iraq.


Note that some of the troops involved aren't even crossing the border into Iraq. The Turks are tearing up the logistics capabilities of the PKK in this operation.

But there is more to it than this:

The PKK has built a dozen or so camps and headquarters operations along the Turkish and Iranian border. From these bases, the PKK recruits and trains fighters, and plans terror attacks into Turkey and Iran. The loss of these bases will slow down PKK violence. The use of commandos is apparently an effort to capture documents and PKK members, or at least identify bodies. The Turks say about 150 have died in four days of operations, 90 percent of them PKK. The Turks want documents, and other evidence, showing the extent of PKK criminal activities in Europe. Turkey has been trying to get European nations to stop allowing the PKK to use Europe as a base for exiled PKK leaders, and to halt PKK fund raising among Kurdish migrants, and the locals. If the Turks can prove lots of PKK criminal activity, the PKK will lose some of its European sanctuaries.


Turkish special forces want documentation that won't be carted off or destroyed by PKK personnel too concerned with escaping.

Also, the talk of 3,000 troops may mean troops on the Turkish side of the border, too, with maybe only a third of that number actually crossing into Iraq. So when I wrote that 3,000 might mean a handful of battalions with their parent headquarters remaining in Iraq I was assuming the number meant units crossing the border. If the total refers to everything, it could mean just a regiment mostly remaining inside Turkey with some infantry and special forces crossing into Iraq.

This shouldn't last too long. And it isn't going to destabilize Iraq. If only people got as worked up over Iranian and Syrian operatons that have destabilized Iraq for years.

UPDATE: The Iraqis are close to having enough of this:

Iraqi government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh said the first confirmed Turkish military ground operation in Iraq in about a decade was a violation of Iraqi sovereignty.

"The Iraqi Cabinet has denounced the Turkish army's incursion," al-Dabbagh said after the government met to discuss the issue. "The Cabinet calls on Turkey to withdraw its troops immediately and stop the military intervention."


And American Lieutenant General Carter Ham confirms we are providing intelligence and confirm our expectations that this Turkish operation will not last long:

We continue to provide intelligence and appropriate information to the Turkish government as directed, and as part of that agreement, the Turkish military forces informed us and have now undertaken a limited ground operation against the KGK terrorist elements in northern Iraq. Central Command, European Command and Multinational Force-Iraq are clearly monitoring these operations very carefully.


This will help the Turks to wrap this up fast. Still, Strategypage says the operation will last a few weeks. We shall see. Perhaps the Iraqi statement was just a reminder to move it along and not an indication that Iraq will feel compelled to react to the incursion in the next several days or so.

UPDATE: Secretary Gates wants this finished:

"It's very important that the Turks make this operation as short as possible and then leave, and to be mindful of Iraqi sovereignty," Gates told reporters in New Delhi before leaving for a previously scheduled trip to Ankara.

"I measure quick in terms of days, a week or two, something like that. Not months."


The Turks say they won't go until their mission is finished:

"Our objective is clear, our mission is clear and there is no timetable until ... those terrorist bases are eliminated," Turkish envoy Ahmet Davutoglu told a news conference after talks in Baghdad with Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshiyar Zebari.


There isn't necessarily a divide here. It may be that the Turks will decide their mission is done within the timeframe Gates is suggesting of between one and two weeks. One week is already used up, it should be noted.