Pakistani troops are preparing to defend the upcoming votes for parliament:
There are concerns that militants could launch attacks during the Feb. 18 vote, seen as key to Pakistan's transition to democracy after eight years of military rule under President Pervez Musharraf, a key U.S. ally in the war against terrorism.
But the main fear is a major outbreak of political violence if there are allegations of vote rigging.
Interior Ministry spokesman, Jawed Iqbal Cheema said provincial officials had asked for the troops to help maintain peace and order during the election, but promised that none would be stationed at voting stations — a move which could serve to intimidate voters.
"We want to make sure people can cast their vote without any fear," he said. "Nobody will be allowed to disrupt the polling process ... Anyone who tries to do so will be dealt with sternly."
Though the army would not reveal numbers, Arif Ahmad Khan, the home secretary in the southern province of Sindh, said around 24,000 soldiers would patrol streets in his area alone.
In Baluchistan and the North West Frontier Province, security forces would be placed on standby, responding only if violence flared, officials there said.
I've long argued that we have to press Pakistan for real elections and real rule of law to undermine the appeal of jihadi fanaticism as a solution to political corruption. Recent polls show that the jihadis themselves--as they do wherever they fight--have helped our cause a great deal in Pakistan:
Sympathy for al Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden and the Taliban has dropped sharply in Pakistan amid a wave of deadly violence, according to the results of a recent opinion poll.
The survey, conducted last month for the U.S.-based Terror Free Tomorrow organization, also identified the party of assassinated opposition leader Benazir Bhutto as the country's most popular ahead of Feb. 18 elections and said most Pakistanis want President Pervez Musharraf to quit.
The poll suggests that Pakistanis are looking to peaceful opposition groups after months of political turmoil and a wave of suicide attacks.
According to the poll results, only 24 percent of Pakistanis approved of bin Laden when the survey was conducted last month, compared with 46 percent during a similar survey in August.
Backing for al Qaeda, whose senior leaders are thought to be hiding along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, fell to 18 percent from 33 percent.
Support for the Taliban, whose Pakistani offshoots have seized control of much of the lawless border area and have been engaged in a growing war against security forces, dropped by half to 19 percent from 38 percent, the results said.
Voting is now a lot less risky given what the Pakistanis have seen of the jihadis close up. Secretary Gates calls it:
The presence of the Islamic extremists in the tribal region is not just "a nuisance" to Pakistan, but "is potentially a threat to their government," Gates told an international security conference in this southern German city.
Gates, who has been calling for NATO reinforcements to defeat the Taliban and Al-Qaeda in neighbouring Afghanistan, suggested the time had come for a Pakistani anti-insurgency sweep on its own side of the Afghan border.
With any luck, the voting in Pakistan will result in a government more able to press the jihadis in the frontier areas. Too often, the government has backed off out of fear of provoking a sympathetic backlash in favor of the frontier pro-Taliban tribes.
The Pakistanis should not have any doubts that the fight is coming to them. After years of hoping the jihadis would fight us elsewhere, the Pakistanis are discovering that jihadis are finding
it too difficult to fight us elsewhere:
Q Sir, it's Kristin Roberts with Reuters, hoping you can give us your assessment of the strength of al Qaeda right now in your area. The last time we spoke, we spoke about al Qaeda being driven into your area from the west and from the south. So can you give us an idea about their strength today versus maybe two weeks -- two months ago, rather, and the numbers of fighters you're seeing right now?
GEN. HERTLING: Well, Kris, I wouldn't want to give exact numbers, because I'd be wrong. What I will tell you is that there are less now today than there were six weeks ago. We know that for certain. We also know that they've moved to different places. They were in many of the major cities, like Baqubah, like Muqdadiyah, some in Mosul, some in Hawija. And we've seen them move outside of the cities into the desert areas in smaller groups. So we're doing exactly what we're trying to do, and that is, make the cities safer for the Iraqi citizens while continuing to target al Qaeda and the other extremist groups.
In terms of numbers, to be honest, Kris, I wouldn't want to hazard a guess. All we know is that they are still capable of inflicting harm on the Iraqi people. And until we substantially reduce that, we won't be happy.
Q Sir, are you driving any of them out of the country?
GEN. HERTLING: We have had indications that many of them are leaving the country because of what they perceive as an increasing amount of pressure. We have also had indications that several of their leaders are leaving the country with cash, the cash that they were sent to pay fighters with. We are seeing some indications in various forms that there is an attempt at reconsolidating outside of the country and coming back in, so we're watching the borders very closely and, in fact, have captured several fighters at some of the border posts. So not large groups are we driving out, but there are some that are definitely leaving because they perceive, rightfully so, that it's not safe to be here because of our pursuit operations.
MR. WHITMAN: Go ahead, Courtney.
Q Hi, General. This is Courtney Kube from NBC News. Just one quick clarification on that. Do you know where they're going? What countries these al Qaeda leaders or al Qaeda fighters going to? And then, can you give us a little bit more details about the ones who are leaving with cash? And where, specifically, is this cash coming from?
And do you have any idea about their intentions when they're leaving? Are they going to start up new cells in other countries, or are they just fleeing?
GEN. HERTLING: Well, it would be a conjecture for me to determine what their intentions are when they leave, but I do know that many of them are leaving with cash. I don't know if it's for personal gain or because they're tired of the organization and what it's doing and they just want to find another place to live. There have been some indications of that.
In terms of the countries I will state only one, that some of them we have seen specifically leaving to Syria. Some of them are going back to Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
Even if we can't track jihadis going directly from Iraq to Pakistan, we can be sure that any jihadis who want to fight will be directed to Pakistan and not Iraq where the jihadis are being forced out of the urban areas and out of Iraq itself.
Jihadis are voting with their feet. Pakistanis are voting. We shall see if the vote bolsters a Pakistani government with the legitimacy to hammer the jihadi tribes into submission. Whether the Taliban Campaign becomes the final jihad depends on both of these votes.
UPDATE: Amir Taheri sees a lot riding on the vote:
Pakistan has always needed a system where the public space reflects the nation's diversity. The label "Islamic Republic" can't hide the fact that it is home to a variety of Islamic "ways," not to mention some 22 million Christians and 6 million-plus Hindus.
Such a system can't work without free and fair elections. Where there are no elections or election results are fixed, the only way to express diversity and pursue different goals is civil war.
Right now, jihadi violence has reduced Islamist support. But continued political corruption and lack of democracy could push Islamist support right back up to where it was before. Critics of promoting democracy like to belittle the idea that elections are enough to have democracy. They're right. But just as obviously, elections are the very first thing required.
