The Pakistani military is still moving against tribes that support the Taliban even as reports of talks come out of the area:
In northwest Pakistan, troops cleared tribal rebels from a key road, and a tunnel through a mountain, to enable an offensive against the pro-Taliban tribesmen. The army is playing divide and conquer. There are truces with some tribes in North Waziristan have a ceasefire, while the army moved on tribes in South Waziristan. The tribes are on the defensive now, because the army has an easier time moving and fighting. The military has air power, and the tribes do not. This makes a big difference.
And in keeping with the tradition of the area of buying (or renting) loyalty:
The U.S. and Britain are going to try and buy the loyalty of the restive tribesmen of northwest Pakistan. Over the next five years, about half a billion dollars a year will be spent there on security (for the local frontier guard units) and infrastructure (roads, bridges and such). The big problem will be preventing local Pakistani officials from stealing most of the money before it gets to its intended recipients. This has thwarted smaller reconstruction efforts in the past.
In theory, this is the carrot part. But although the money will be spread around, in the end there will be roads and bridges that not only help commerce but will make it far easier for the Pakistanti army to move in when the tribes eventually tire of being loyal to the government and figure it is time to renegotiate the terms.
So maybe it is more accurate to call it a stick and carrot stick policy.
