The real events are taking place outside of Kosovo:
Rioting also continued Tuesday in Belgrade, the Serbian capital, with protesters demonstrating outside Western embassies. The U.S. Embassy temporarily closed its doors.
International recognition of Kosovo's declaration of independence — led by the U.S., Australia and the European Union's biggest powers — appeared to feed Serbs' anger over a unilateral move the government in Belgrade rejected as illegal.
Russia, China and some EU members also strongly oppose letting Kosovo break away from Serbia over Serbia's objections.
Serbian President Boris Tadic implored the U.N. Security Council on Monday to intervene.
"The Republic of Serbia will not resort to force," he said. "On the other hand, this arbitrary decision represents a precedent that will cause irreparable damage to the international order."
Serbia itself won't challenge the declaration of independence, it seems. But countries such as Russia, China, and some EU members (so much for common EU foreign policies) who don't like the precedent of a province breaking free may carry the burden of the fight for Serbia--whether Serbia wants them to or not. Although Tadic seems to be signaling that he'd welcome help.
And that is the real danger, eh? That external powers will see the Balkans as their battlefield.
I won't start to worry that this could become a flash point until Russia sends a motor infantry regiment to Serbia to stand with their ally, either within Serbia or to forcibly take the Serbian enclave within Kosovo.
If Russia does this, it does not mean a new Cold War. First of all, Russia is far weaker than the Soviet Union.
Second, Russia will have no land line of communication for such a force. Russia will essentially be creating a Russian version of West Berlin that will be a political symbol incapable of doing more than dying in place should a shooting war begin.
Third, Russia remains vulnerable to NATO in their Kaliningrad enclave formed from the old East Prussia following World War II. Completely surrounded on the land side by Poland, a NATO country, the Russians would face the loss of Serbia and a chunk of Russian territory in a war with NATO.
But it would be another way for Russia to pretend to have a relentless NATO enemy ready to attack Mother Russia but for Putin's eternal vigilance. It's crap, but people have died for lesser crap than that.
Sure, it would be a damn fool thing to start a war over. But that judgment is no comfort in the Balkans, you know?
