Basically, I worried that a surge would exhaust our far more valuable patience stocks to increase military effectiveness in the short run for what is an essentially long-run war. Worst of all, even war supporters have a disturbing tendency to talk of this surge as "one last chance." While the surge may have some benefits I did not anticipate, the shortcomings I worried about remain. That's why I haven't boasted of short-term reductions in violence as the result of the surge. I knew this could be fleeting. Violence is down in Baghdad, which is an achievement, but violence is up in areas we are surging into around Baghdad in pursuit of the enemy that fled Baghdad.
Although I think the surge is fine as it is being implemented in a purely military sense, the expectations are just too much:
Wednesday's broader report, the eighth in a series, said that while violence fell in the capital and in Anbar province west of Baghdad during the February-May period, it increased in other areas, particularly in the outlying areas of Baghdad province and in Diyala province northeast of Baghdad and in the northern province of Nineva.
The article says violence is up overall. I don't worry about this since I know the war will take time to win as long as we are driving other metrics of government capacity foward. But the anti-war side is focused exclusively on casualties, and this is our weak point. And this is what the Senate Majority Leader and Speaker are emphasizing:
"As many had forseen, the escalation has failed to produce the intended results," the two leaders wrote.
"The increase in US forces has had little impact in curbing the violence or fostering political reconciliation.
"It has not enhanced Americas national security. The unsettling reality is that instances of violence against Iraqis remain high and attacks on US forces have increased.
Never mind that increased combat is the natural result of the surge. That's the whole point of surging. Of course attacks on our troops will increase. We have more and we are using them more aggressively. Yet casualties are the entire metric for judging the mission.
We are winning this war. But violence is a metric of war intensity and not war direction. Sadly, we run the risk that the surge will exhaust our willingness to fight.
