Saturday, June 16, 2007

Half a Loaf

I'm finding it hard to work up a lot of anguish or any feeling of loss due to the recent Hamas-Fatah War in Gaza.

Yes, Hamas put Fatah to the sword. I find this a useful reminder of what happens when you think that jihadis should be voted into office to run your own affairs. Much like the Nazis gained power with a minority of votes and then seized power, these modern Islamo-fascists have done the same.

And now Fatah, unless it completely blows its advantage in the West Bank, is free to govern there without Hamas. And Israel effectively shields them from Hamas' more effective fighters.

And we will support Fatah without the anchor of Hamas weighing them down:

The U.S. strengthened its offer of support for President Mahmoud Abbas on Saturday, telling him an international aid embargo against the Palestinians would end as soon as he forms a new government without Hamas, aides to Abbas said.

When Fatah ran things with Hamas around, Fatah could argue they couldn't make peace with Israel because Hamas would take advantage of that "weakness." When Hamas led the government, Fatah could plead they could do nothing. Now Fatah has no excuse since they are in the same category as Jews now, in the eyes of Hamas.

Hamas was going to keep killing Israelis regardless of whether they were a junior partner or senior partner with Fatah. So the only thing that will change is that Hamas can no longer hide behind the hope that Fatah could moderate the Hamas thugs. Gazans can enjoy their Jew-hating paradise and sink further into poverty. Israel can hit Hamas which enjoys the backing of Iran without angering Sunni Arab governments and without angering Fatah.

With hardly any luck needed, much like West Germany outshined East Germany and as South Korea outperforms North Korea, a West Bank rump Palestinian Authority will outperform Gaza while making peace with Israel. What have they got to lose now? They've tried every other self-defeating strategy.

A three-state solution makes sense. With Hamas influence in the PA, the Palestinians were never going to make peace with Israel. With Hamas contained in Gaza, the Fatah-dominated Palestinians may have a bit more sense. Not that Fatah likes Israel, but you never can tell when sheer rock-pounding stupidity will finally end.

Half a loaf (or more like two-thirds, given the relative populations) is better than none.

UPDATE: Taheri doesn't seem in a panic, either:

The battle for Gaza also represents the defeat of the less radical faction of Hamas, under Ismail Haniyah, by hardliners led by Mashaal. Haniyah had resisted total dependence on Iran and Syria and tried to keep a dialogue with Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Misha'al opposed that strategy because Riyadh and Cairo insisted that Hamas should work with Fatah under Mahmoud Abbas, and help bring down tension with Israel.

The main loser in the Gaza battle is the Palestinian people, who end up divided between Gaza and the West Bank - and hostage, in both places, to gunmen motivated by personal greed or a lunatic ideology.

With Gaza under Hamas control, Israel is unlikely to find a credible Palestinian peace partner anytime soon. The dream of a Palestinian state, of whatever size and shape, has been postponed for an unknown period.

Calls for the so-called "international community" to step in to help Hamas consolidate its hold on Gaza are both impertinent and dangerous. Hamas, having pushed the Palestinians to the brink of civil war, must be left to assume the consequences of its strategy of alliance with Tehran and Damascus in a broader conflict that has little do with Palestine, as either a cause or a political project.

As to talking with Israel over an independent Palestine, I imagine a lot depends on whether Fatah can accept running the West Bank alone. Or rather, whether the Palestinians on the West Bank will let Fatah accept this. I imagine Fatah has had enough of Hamas for quite a while.

We shall see if Hamas has to fight its own civil war as their jihadi paradise sinks further into the abyss. Will Europe really fund these madmen? At least let Iran pay the bills for their jihadi outpost, for goodness sake.

Even before this round of fighting, it seemed like Palestinians were sick of Hamas' focus on killing Israelis at the expense of doing anything at all for Palestinians. Let Hamas screw up Gaza even more. Perhaps the contrast of a more prosperous West Bank will be illuminating.

I'm really in favor of letting jihadis run things if the locals really want this type of rule. Let them screw up, I say. My only exception is when these regimes threaten us with conventional arms, nukes, or terror. Then we must do something.

I admit my exception might very well encompass all real or potential jihadi-run states.