Apparently the Iranian Navy has been unusually active the past few days, with a significant portion of its vessels underway. What this means is uncertain – no exercises had been announced, but it could be a surprise alert. None of the other Iranian forces seem to be engaging in any unusual activity. There are some major training exercises planned in the south, using, for the most part, ground forces.
One might sortie your fleet to keep it from getting destroyed in port if you anticipate war.
Yet the other Iranian services are not doing anything unusual.
And based on our clashes with the Iranian fleet in 1988, I find it hard to believe that they think that safety can be found at sea.
Of course, your fleet assets could be threatened by more than air and sea attack. If in port, people on the ground can be a threat to your ship. And I keep remembering that an Iranian warship dipped its flag on an anniversary of 9-11 when passing one of our ships. Add to this that I desperately want to believe that we are planning to do something about Iran when they are far closer to an atomic bomb than many insisted, and I hope I see the sign of a pro-American fleet getting out of harm's way for when the hammer falls.
Or I could be connecting dots that aren't connected or even there in the first place.
UPDATE: Strategypage says nothing unusual happened:
The Iranian navy activity turned out to be part of large scale military training exercises, that did get announced, and publicized.
Sometimes identifying what are dots is pretty tricky--let alone connecting them.
