Two weeks after a protest that culminated in gunfire and bloodshed, the rebellious farmers and fishermen of Dongzhou have been reduced to submission. Authorities have sealed off the seaside village and flooded its streets and lanes with police patrols, residents said, and an unknown number of men have been summoned by a knock on the door and hauled away for interrogation.
And the Chinese government is mightily worried over this and other incidents:
The Public Security Ministry has acknowledged that the number of riots has risen sharply in China, reaching more than 70,000 in 2004 and developing into a major concern for the government. But the violence in Dongzhou stood out because police used their guns. Most of the recent uprisings have been suppressed by riot police armed with tear gas and truncheons. Members of the People's Armed Police, who carry automatic weapons, rarely have been deployed.
You might want to keep in mind all the discussions over necessary troop strength in Iraq to suppress a rebellion. For serious resistance, security forces of 2% of the population to be controlled are necessary.
Right now, for isolated outbursts, the Chinese authorities can move in police, PAP, or even regular troops to flood the areas in unrest with enough force density to smother unarmed resistance.
But consider the problems Peking would have if 1.2 billion Chinese tired of communist rule: 2% of 1.2 billion is 24 million security forces.
China has 4 million PLA army troops (active and reserve) and People's Armed Police (formerly the foot infantry units of the PLA. I don't know how many police they have but if we assume 0.5% (twice the ratio of the US), the Chinese can add 6 million police.
Ten million total security forces won't cut it if even half the Chinese people raise the banner of revolt in a serious way.
No wonder the communist rulers are concerned.
