Stay Alert

I don't know why the insurgent attacks are up in Iraq this last month. On the bright side, it has been a while since there has been a report of a large platoon-sized attack on any Coalition forces. I was disturbed that the enemy was able to mass that large a force early in the month. Where did they gather prior to the attacks. Did they train for the attacks? If they did, where did they train without being spotted?

Is handing off security duties to Iraqis allowing insurgents some more freedom of action with fewer US troops out going after the insurgents? Not that we should reverse this, since as others have noted, it is better for the Iraqis to fight the war tolerably well than for US forces to fight brilliantly. The Iraqis can't rely on us. If they do they'll watch the fight between us and the Baathists and stay neutral. I've argued for this for nearly two years and I'm pleased we didn't fall for the siren song of pumping up troop strength in Iraq. We'd have taken over the war and exhausted ourselves. We can get tired and go home. By contrast, the new Iraqi government has nowhere to go. If the Iraqis fight the insurgents, they have to win or die. The only question is how ruthless will the new government have to get to suppress the Baathist revolt with their jihadi buddies? And will true democracy be crippled? Whatever is there at the end of this insurgency will be better than Saddam but I've gotten my hopes up and would like some form of democracy functioning in Iraq at the end of the day.

With the Iraqi economy growing and the Iraqi military and governmental institutions being built, this war is being won. Even with attacks roughly the same this month as a year ago, in April 2004, the insurgents were on the offensive and the Iraqi government was a glimmer in our eye. Some were thinking of our side bugging out. Now the Iraqi government is growing stronger every day and the insurgents have seen our side take their best shot and keep going. The insurgents are looking for a way out. The insurgents haven't been able to stop this progress.

But I'm not sure what is going on in the field. I'm just a little nervous.

UPDATE: All those car bombs came from somewhere. Fallujah was a car bomb factory and we eliminated that sanctuary. The jihadis and the Baathists built those things somewhere and with so many, it must be relatively secure.

Turning over security to Iraqis will leave a problem. In the short run, the Iraqis will be less effective. But we can't keep the job just because we are more effective in the short run. There will be a learning curve for the Iraqis and we must let them learn. We can help the Iraqis find this latest sanctuary and destroy it. But in the long run, Iraqis must win this war.