Wednesday, April 27, 2005

A Big 'Well, Duh' Moment

Iran is going nuclear.

The EU is trying soft power to stop them.

Others are positive that force is not the answer in any way. Or as they put it, violence is the "last resort." We all know that "last" means "never" in practice. There is always one more thing to try short of force, eh? Even if that means sending Jimmy Carter and Jesse Jackson to Tehran at the same time! Oooh.

Well what about those measures short of force? Would Iran be impressed? Well you decide:

Day after day, Iranians shrug off the prospect of U.N. sanctions, Washington's key threat against Iran's unwillingness to abandon nuclear ambitions — and for good reason: Tehran has powerful friends with keen financial interests in blocking such punishment.

But even if Iran cannot secure a Russian or Chinese veto of any attempt at imposing U.N. Security Council sanctions, it has weathered an American embargo for 25 years. Many Iranians, while acknowledging some pain, credit the U.S. embargo with making them more self-reliant.

A Foreign Ministry spokesman, exasperated by repeated warnings for Iran to end its nuclear ambitions or face U.N. sanctions, said recently that "we don't know with what language to tell the Europeans and Americans that Iran is not afraid of the U.N. Security Council."

"We have been subject to sanctions in the past," Hamid Reza Asefi added. "In the short term, it has put us under pressure. But in long term, it has helped our economy to flourish."


Tehran doesn't fear UN sanctions. Tehran has several lines of defense. First, China or Russia or perhaps France will run interference. Second, Tehran can count on ineffective sanctions. Third, Tehran can count on people to cheat on the sanctions.

Ah yes, the power of the combined actions of the vaunted "international community." Does anybody seriously think that Tehran can be talked out of nuclear weapons?

Regime change is the only answer to Iran's threat to world peace. This does not mean invasion. It does mean supporting people who oppose the mullahs.

And soon. We're running out of friggin' time.