"We might say there is a violent wind, a great hole in North Korean society," said Kim, whose team has just published the most up-to-date assessment of the North's economy, based on months of work culling myriad sources for information.
"The hole is getting bigger," Kim told Reuters at his office in mountains on the northeastern fringes of the capital, Seoul. "But we have to separate that from North Korea collapsing."
Later, the article states some of the problems yet doesn't make the leap to the problems actually affecting the regime adversely:
But a growing wealth gap that is alienating city dwellers and pervasive food shortages that stunt growth have yet to spark any known large-scale dissident activity, let alone a revolt of the kind seen in the former Soviet Union, most recently Kyrgyzstan.
"Absolutely impossible," said Kim when asked about rebellion, the "regime change" some Washington hawks advocate.
"North Korea may look like it is changing, but to think that it may represent a risk or the system might collapse is just our way of thinking," he said. "There is a unique logic and power that sustains North Korean society. That comes from the power structure, and that power controls the public."
There have been some reports of graffiti and critical leaflets, but any organized resistance is unlikely to last long because of the security services, prison camps and an obedience stemming from hunger, diplomats and security analysts say.
What unique logic is he talking about? Are we back to the days when Asians were naturally seen as craving dictatorships? Has the growth of democracy in Asia taught us nothing? How is it possible to catalog the problems he sees yet see nothing coming of it?
Do the math! Violence. Hunger. Wealth gap. Discipline breaking down. People fleeing in the face of terror. How can you deny change is happening? Make the leap of logic! I know you've probably predicted no change for fifty years now and updating your annual report would be a real pain but how is it possible to predict that revolution is absolutely impossible?
Violent winds and great holes do not prop up regimes. Regimes fall in the face of such forces.
