Saturday, April 02, 2005

Digging In

The Syrians will not go easily from Lebanon, I fear. While Western forces represented by America, Britain, and France may well be enough to force Syria out, the Syrians gain too much money and leverage from their occupation and control of Lebanon to walk away lightly:

No one knows for sure who was behind the subsequent bombings. Anti-Syrian leaders blame Damascus and allied Lebanese security authorities, saying they are meant to show that Lebanon cannot cope without the Syrian army. The pro-Syrian camp blames saboteurs, saying they are destabilizing the country to invite international intervention.

The turmoil has raised fears of a return to civil war. So far, however, the political camps do not conform to the religious boundaries that figured in the 1975-1990 conflict. This time, there are Christians and Muslims on both sides of the debate.

But the bombings have all happened in Christian areas.

No one knows for sure? Get real. Bombings are the call sign of the Baathists in Damascus. And the habit of targeting the Christians hasn't gone away. The Syrians are trying to raise the spector of civil war to get Lebanonese to decide that the stability of Syrian rule is preferable to more chaos.

Syria appears to be digging in for a fight. This could get considerably uglier before it gets better.

Or maybe European human shields will start hanging out in Christian areas.