First, we have the demonstrations that on the surface are directed against Japan:
SHANGHAI, China - Chanting "Japanese pigs get out," protesters here threw stones and broke windows at Japan's consulate and Japanese restaurants as tens of thousands of people defied government warnings and staged demonstrations Saturday against Tokyo's bid for a permanent U.N. Security Council seat.
Isn't that nice? Pigs? And the assertion that the people were defying Peking rather than doing what the government wants them to do is ridiculous. Tiananmen Square should disabuse anybody of the foolish idea that the Chinese government is unwilling to suppress protests (like here). Instapundit has a post with photographs. One is interesting in that like protesters everywhere, it is written in English for our benefit.
And Glenn doesn't need to speculate too much that the protests are orchestrated by Peking. Our embassy there isn't confused:
In a notice posted on its website, the US embassy in Beijing said it had received unconfirmed reports that "unknown persons are circulating a call to stage anti-Japanese demonstrations throughout China the weekend of April 16-17."
"The demonstrations are purportedly against Japanese interests, but could involve foreigners in general," the embassy said.
"Because of the fluid nature of such events, American citizens traveling in China should be alert for demonstrations and or marches occurring at other times and locations without prior warning," the notice said.
The announcement follows widespread demonstrations last weekend in several Chinese cities against Japan's approval of a school textbook that allegedly whitewashes Japanese wartime atrocities in China.
Protesters were also against Japan's bid for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.
And this Times article explicitly notes the hand of the Peking communists:
Enraged about Japan's tendentious textbooks and territorial disputes in the East China Sea, Sun Wei, a college junior, joined thousands of Chinese in a rare legal protest march on the streets of Beijing last weekend.
Yet the police herded protesters into tight groups, let them take turns throwing rocks, then told them they had "vented their anger" long enough and bused them back to campus.
It was partly a real protest and partly a political show," Mr. Sun said in an interview this week. "I felt a little like a puppet."
China has tapped a deep strain of nationalism among its people, gambling, analysts say, that it can propel itself to a leadership role in Asia while cloaking its move for power in the guise of wounded pride and popular will.
But the government also seems to have taken steps to control - some say manipulate - a nascent protest movement to prevent a grass-roots challenge to the governing Communist Party.
In the last few weeks, relations between Asia's two leading powers have reached their most serious crisis since diplomatic ties were re-established in 1972. China has confronted Japan over newly revised history textbooks that gloss over wartime abuses. It stepped up its claim to disputed islands and undersea gas reserves between the countries.
China took Japan and the United States to task for declaring that they would jointly defend Taiwan in case of an attack from the mainland.
After weeks of hints, Chinese leaders said outright on Wednesday that Japan did not have the moral qualifications to become a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. That effectively thwarted Japan's ambition to attain that status as part of an overhaul plan this year.
Of course, this course is dangerous for a regime with falling legitimacy:
The steps have proved immensely popular at home. But stirring up patriotic sentiment to unite the country carries big risks, because party officials fear nothing more than unscripted political activity. Furthermore, they depend heavily on the good will of the major foreign powers to keep investment flowing and the economy humming.
Unscripted political activity? Read that as a revolution or chaos. The aging communists who rule with an ideology that few of them believe in anymore (and that few Chinese people believe) are playing with fire. American Thinker puts it well:
The fact that China's government is repressive often leads foreign observers to assume that it is strong. In fact, China's rulers know very well that their hold on power is tenuous, and that the threat of popular discontent boiling over into rebellion and even disintegration is very real. China's history has many cycles of poltiical fragmentation, alternating with cycles of centralization, and this is familiar to all.
Market reforms which have loosened up central control have also produced greater stresses on social order, as winners and losers have emerged. Losers are nearly always restive, while winners sometimes get ideas about their own power and influence.
Keep a careful eye on the possibilities for rebellion in China. The rulers in Beijing certainly do.
I don't know whether China will be a threat or a friend. Communist or fascist. Aggressive or inward looking. Powerful or weak. United or fragmented. But China certainly should be watched.
And keep our powder dry just in case.
UPDATE: Welcome Instapundit readers. It's been a month since my last Instalanche. An Instalanche is kind of like blogger Crack. No more shakes--for now. Thanks Glenn!
