Monday, January 08, 2018

A Seriously Big Fish in a Small Pond

Erdogan is tired of waiting for the EU to accept Turkey:

French President Emmanuel Macron suggested Friday that the European Union develop a partnership with Turkey after its leader said he was "seriously tired" of waiting for the bloc to decide if it wants Turkey as a member. ...

"One cannot permanently implore and wait to be finally included," he said, adding that frustration over the EU stance might tempt Ankara to turn its back to Europe. ...

Erdogan unleashed a series of insults at NATO allies, accusing European officials of racism, harboring terrorists and behaving like Nazis.

With dreams of a restored Ottoman caliphate to build his legacy, I think Erdogan has little interest in being a small fish in a big EU pond dominated by Germany and France.

With European worries of migrant floods that Turkey enabled without being inside the EU walls, I find it hard to believe the EU will hand Turkey the keys to the borders.

So Turkey will pull away from EU talks after extracting maximum outrage in his public at being pushed away; and will eventually pull out of NATO in practice if not formally. All to build an independent role as the dominant power in the eastern Mediterranean, the Middle East, and Central Asia.

Iran, Israel, and Saudi Arabia will object to that role with some power to resist. And Egypt with its own grand history will chafe at that notion even though it lacks the money to resist independently.

It won't be a formal empire, of course. But Turkey will seek to build influence in their old Ottoman stomping grounds.