Monday, January 07, 2013

The Gift of Time

This could be inconvenient if it goes much further:

Islamist rebels in control of northern Mali pushed south, close to government positions on Monday, army sources said, raising fears of fresh clashes after months of tense standoff. ...

Heavily armed Islamist groups in convoys of pick-up trucks had been reported in the Mopti region, where government troops have been stationed since the revolt, a Malian military official told Reuters.

"The rebels have been advancing and have been sighted in several places ... We are waiting for them. If they attack us, we will fight back," said the official, who asked not to be identified.

Don't the Mali jihadis know they are just supposed to sit there in the desert waiting for Mali, ECOWAS, France, and the international community to organize an autumn 2013 offensive to destroy them?

I always say (really, I do, and people seem to get annoyed), give an enemy time and they just might use it.

UPDATE: The first clash went against the jihadis, it seems, according to Mali's government:

In a communique, the ministry said government forces had clashed with fighters from al Qaeda's north African wing AQIM as well as the Ansar Dine and MUJWA Islamist movements late on Monday close to the town of Mopti, 450 km (280 miles) northeast of the capital Bamako.

Convoys of pick up trucks carrying Islamist fighters had been reported moving southwards towards Mopti, which has a large military barracks and airport.

One of the mostly northerly towns still controlled by the government, Mopti lies at the bottleneck between Mali's arid north and the more populous south.

"The armed forces have driven off this attempted attack," said the ministry statement, read out on Malian radio and television.

We'll see how it goes in the second clash.

The government is waiting for the fall to do something, after all.

The jihadis seem like they just won't wait around for the government and their allies to get ready. After all, the government and their allies have telegraphed the fact that they are about 10 months short of being ready to fight. Why wouldn't the jihadis try to push south while they can?

UPDATE: Strategypage:

The army has moved hundreds of additional troops to the northern town of Mopti (450 kilometers northeast of the capital). Several hundred al Qaeda gunmen showed up on the outskirts of the town two days ago, halted when troops opened fire, and began establishing themselves within sight of soldiers. Mopti is a market town at the junction of the Niger and Bani rivers and has become the base for efforts to retake control of the north or keep the rebels from moving south (where most of the people, water, and national wealth are). In the last few days al Qaeda gunmen have taken control of a village of Bourei which is 40 kilometers north of Mopti.

If the jihadis work their way south of that outpost, interfere with retreat routes, and then make a serious effort to take Mopti, I have my doubts that the Mali army defenders will be terribly eager to die for Mopti if the jihadis keep coming after the first few hours of an attack.