Whatever else the extensive strategic literature on the Black Sea teaches us, it surely teaches us that where a vacuum is created due to neglect, inattention, or any other reason, someone else, often a hostile power, will fill it at the expense of those who live there and their protectors, because nature abhors a vacuum. Alternatively, we might also say that this literature teaches us that the Black Sea, strategically speaking, is a “sacred area,” for as the Russian proverb states, “a sacred space is never empty.” If we do not fill this space, Moscow will and in a manner that conflicts with our and our allies’ interests.
Of course, deploying naval power to the Black Sea runs up against the restrictions on our forces that the 1936 Montreux Convention imposes on any outside powers deploying ships through the Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits into the Black Sea. Our deployments in response to Russia's invasion of Georgia in August 2008 were restricted because of that treaty.
So how could we avoid such restrictions? Especially the need to rotate a ship out after three weeks?
Could we base small patrol craft out of Romania? Perhaps sending the patrol craft up the Danube River to get them off the Black Sea after three week of deployment?
Or how about using modularized auxiliary cruisers to surge forces in the Black Sea when needed and then de-militarizing the container ships after three weeks?
Or how about using air ships for persistent patrols of the Black Sea? Could low-flying air ships--perhaps carrying small craft slung underneath for some work--be stationed on and patrol the Black Sea for long periods without triggering the limits that keep our ships on a short leash in the sea? Could we heavy them up so that they are more stable and durable at low altitudes of no more than a couple hundred meters at the price of not being able to reach very high altitudes like a traditional air ship? Or would we rather have a traditional air ship at higher altitudes able to fly for several weeks?
A Black Sea strategy is more than just military forces, of course. But strategy without force to back it is just wishful thinking, eh? And we unfortunately face severe limits on operating traditional naval forces in the Black Sea. So how could non-traditional forces do the job of such naval forces yet get around the treaty restrictions?
