Russia's economy is hurting. But Russia has muddled through with an ability to endure deteriorating economic conditions. Predictions of collapse have passed repeatedly. Is a bill in Congress a "this time for sure" moment?
The war goes on. Starlink seems to have closed the gap that allowed Russia to control its drones deeper into Ukrainian territory. And CSIS has new estimates on the casualties that both sides have endured:
Russia suffered 1.2 million casualties, including up to 325,000 troop deaths, between the start of Moscow’s full-scale invasion in February 2022 and December 2025. ...
It estimated that Ukraine, with its smaller army and population, had suffered between 500,000 to 600,000 casualties, including up to 140,000 deaths.
I keep worrying that if Russia could form a reserve of a fully equipped and acceptably trained combined arms army that Russia could charge through Ukraine's thinly manned drone belt on a fifteen mile front. It would be costly but would push through the kill zone with enough to break through and roll up the flanks. In the long run it would be cheaper. So far Russia appears incapable of that kind of discipline, preferring constant pressure along multiple points of the front line.
The most significant development of 2026 isn't a new missile system; it’s a tariff. The Graham-Trump Bill, greenlit by the White House on January 7, has fundamentally rewritten the rules of economic warfare. By threatening a mandatory 500% tariff on any country—including China and India—that continues to purchase Russian petroleum or uranium, the U.S. has finally weaponized the one thing Russia’s allies value more than cheap crude: access to the American consumer.
Will this work? Could Russia's war effort sputter to crawl? Will Putin finally take Trump's offer to end the war as a last chance to declare victory in the special military operation gone horribly awry?
Or maybe this is just another "best by" deadline that Russia will continue to muddle through.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here.
NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
