Ukraine has been able to cope with Russia's size advantage by getting Western assistance.
Russia seems to be trying to gather reserves for a summer 2026 offensive:
The Russian military command is reportedly planning to deploy its likely limited strategic reserves to a planned Summer 2026 offensive in southern and/or eastern Ukraine. The Russian military likely lacks sufficient reserves to both adequately prepare for such an offensive and achieve the offensive’s objectives, however.
Either the Russians have no interest in ending the war or the Russians want to push a better deal by acting as if they aren't desperate for a deal.
Ukraine has more money to fight on:
At the end of 2025 European nations agreed to loan Ukraine $105 billion to help cover the Ukrainian non-military budget over the next two years.
Ukraine is a good kill ratio and has allies with much higher GDP than Russia (which to be fair does have some help from China, Iran, and North Korea) to balance the scales that made it wrongly seem like Russia would inevitably win. Early in the war, I compared Russia's size advantage to Iran's advantages over Iraq in the Iran-Iraq War:
Like Iran, Russia has a 3:1 advantage in population. But Russian morale as a conqueror, that is clearly not liberating people from Nazis, is not superior. This could break Russia before Ukraine. ...
What about GDP and defense spending? You'd think Russia clearly has the edge with a 9:1 GDP advantage.
But Russia is under Western sanctions that will harm Russia's ability to go to war production levels. Russian Soviet-era stockpiles will run low in time--or reach the material and ammo almost more dangerous to Russian users than Ukrainian targets.
And Ukraine is being supplied by the West, which has an immensely greater GDP advantage than Russia's advantage over Ukraine. So you can't just count the value of the arms and services provided to Ukraine when comparing the economic advantage. You'd have to count the research and development and logistics value on Ukraine's side of the ledger that provides the weapons, supplies, and services.
So when you compare the scientific, industrial, and military effort on both sides, is Russia really superior in material?
Has Trump given Russia and Ukraine a June deadline to end the war? You have to admit that if Trump then punishes Russia and Ukraine equally, Ukraine's much lower reliance on American help will really just put the screws to Russia.
Russia has not steamrollered Ukraine any more than Iran could steamroller Iraq with human wave assaults. Could Russia be looking for an excuse to end the war just as the Iranians seized on American intervention in the Persian Gulf in 1988 to end that war?
Mind you, unless Russia's ground forces break, I don't see the Ukrainians willing to sacrifice the men and money to drive the Russians out of all--or even much--of Ukraine's territory that Russia has captured since 2014. And rumors of a significant Ukrainian counteroffensive developing rather than simple local counter-attacks exploiting Russian communications problems (Starlink cut off; and social media platforms like Telegram shut down by Moscow) aren't solid enough for me to change my mind on that issue. The planned presidential election and referendum on peace in May may be revealing on Ukrainian will to drive the enemy out, eh?
But on the other side, does this mean Putin is more worried about internal enemies than about Ukraine?
Russia is blocking WhatsApp and other Western social media platforms, media outlets, and means of bypassing internet restrictions as part of an intensification of the Kremlin’s campaign to reassert control over the Russian information space and prevent access to the global internet.
Interesting. Is there an active threat? Or could Russia be imposing control before a dramatic step to end the war that could provoke online opposition from his pro-war base?
NOTE: ISW updates continue here.
NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
NOTE: Photo from the peace deadline article.
