Tuesday, February 17, 2026

Incentives in War

Are suicide drones the best weapon or the most profitable one? Ukraine's drone strike bonus system will hurt the Ukrainian military.

This is interesting:

At least four out of every five successful Ukrainian strikes against Russia's forces are being carried out by drones, said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy[.]

FPV recon and suicide air drones proved effective in the Winter War of 2022, and for Ukraine filled the gap during the artillery shell shortage. In addition, I've long thought their impact has been inflated by being the weapon uniquely able to advertise its successes with video. And I think the static nature of the front amplifies the impact of these aerial drones. But the statistics apparently show suicide drone dominance even as artillery shells seem to be sufficient now. Then I read this further along:

"Each of these strikes is recorded, which helps not only with hit verification but also with the operation of the bonus-based system for assessing military performance," the statement said, referring to a new system that rewards drone squads for video-recording their battlefield engagements.

For every confirmed kill, drone units are assigned points that can be used to procure equipment.

That's bad. Why would anybody choose the infantry that dies alone in the mud defending Ukraine when they can stay safe and collect bonuses? Do commanders use drones even when other assets would work better simply because of the lure of bonuses? And as one analyst asked, do Ukrainians target Russians based on ease of killing them for points rather than maximum effect on the Russians?

How long will it take for the more ambitious to fake verified hits to increase their bonus? And sell their equipment reward for actual cash. Which will undermine Ukraine's war effort.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here

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NOTE: I made the image with Bing.