Let's Get Small

We are on the way to seeing low-altitude "brown skies" small drone campaigns running parallel to traditional air force campaigns in the blue skies. 

Russia is expanding its drone production and strikes on Ukrainian cities:

Russia's increasing missile and drone production will likely allow Russia to continue conducting increasingly larger strikes against Ukraine during Fall 2025, and ISW previously assessed that Russian forces may be able to strike Ukraine with up to 2,000 drones in a single night by November 2025 should the current pattern of growth in nightly Russian drone usage continue.

Ukraine is responding with fighter drones:

Zelensky says Ukraine aims to deploy at least 1,000 interceptor drones daily.

That will take time. And they are consumable suicide drones rather than the reusable fighter drones I advocated in Army magazine years ago. Yet Russia is aiming to use interceptor drones, too.

Will we see aerial campaigns of Russian attack and decoy drones escorted by fighter drones that are contested by Ukrainian ground-based systems and fighter drones? 

Drone versions of manned electronic warfare planes to support aircraft in penetrating enemy defenses are already in use by Ukraine. And this post on Ukrainian drone usage mentions retransmitting drones. Which seems like a form of aerial refueling in that it extends drone range.

And as the numbers of drones in the air climb, will there be opportunities for counter-air operations striking the crowded launch sites of the drones massed for the 1,000-drone raids?

Will the more complicated nature of the low-altitude air campaign lead Ukraine's Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Force to get a "Victory Through (tiny) Air Power" attitude and lose interest in their mission of supporting ground troops? It's a well-trod evolution.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

Cannon Fodder ... From the Sea Service

Putin claims he will strengthen the Russian navy. I wish! Instead the fleet will be converted to cannon fodder infantry to be thrown into the Ukraine meat grinder.

Ah, Navy Day in Russia! The time when a dictator at war gazes longingly at the manpower kept at pier side doing nothing of use:

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday announced the restructuring and further armament of the navy during the conclusion of a major naval exercise.

By the end of the year, two marine infantry brigades will be converted into divisions, with three more to follow shortly, Putin said.

That's not a navy move. God, I wish Russia would waste money on that sort of red sports car. What Putin ordered is a ground force move at his navy's expense. 

I wonder how many in the Russian navy who thought they were safe from dying in the war will be shifted to those new divisions? The crew of the battleship Potemkin was unavailable for comment. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: Image from the movie, Battleship Potemkin.

Putin Activates Muscle Memory in Germany

Putin has actually managed to get what I thought were the hopelessly and suicidally pacifistic Germans to rearm. Real Russians would punish Putin for that strategic disaster. 

Germany disarmed itself after the Cold War, with no signs it would pull its weight in NATO:

I keep reading that the Germans hate their militaristic past so much that they don't want to fight.

Let's try applying the clue bat to Germany's collective skull on this issue.

Conquering and setting up death camps under the shield of a powerful military? That's bad. By all means, don't do that.

Having a military capable of fighting death cult enemies or stopping the Russians from moving west? Well, that's a good thing. Try doing that.

Until Putin got to work. Now Germany wants to hit Moscow: 

Germany has officially requested to acquire US-made Typhon missile systems to enhance its long-range deterrence[.]

Bravo, Putin. 

When do the paranoid Russians arrest, execute, and prosecute (in that order) Putin for treason?  

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: Image from the Typhon article.

Enough--Not Cheaper--Is Needed

As we wring our hands over the problem of shooting down cheap attacking drones with expensive missiles, let's not forget the orders of magnitude more expensive assets we are trying to protect. 

Iran and its proxies have highlighted the unfavorable exchange cost between cheap attacking drones and expensive defensive missiles:

[The] U.S. Navy needed a cheaper way to shoot down hostile drones. Currently the navy is using 2.1 million dollar missiles to knock down drones costing a few thousand dollars each.

Given that the Navy ships being defended may cost multiple billions of dollars each, the fact that defensive missiles cost much more than the attacking weapons isn't really the issue. The issue is having enough defensive weapons to prevent the attacking weapons from wrecking the very expensive warship and killing its nearly priceless trained crew. Presumably the warship is being sent into harm's way for a very good reason.

I mean USS Stark in 1987 had a really favorable cost exchange between the two incoming missiles and the complete lack of defensive fire. Very efficient, if that is the metric. 

So high price is really a shorthand for not enough, no? Right now the Navy is looking at lasers to solve the "enough" problem. But fog and smoke cause problems. In addition to area electronic warfare weapons, I suspect we need a wall of precise lead on our ships. And A-Whacks patrolling overhead between the incoming drones and our ships. 

Yet "enough" must include the expensive defensive missiles. Have no doubt that we'll need the really expensive stuff to defeat the more expensive missiles the enemy will send at our warships trying to win the war. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: Photo of USS Stark by the U.S. Navy. 

Artillery Gets Some Respect Back

FPV drones get the love. Artillery still remains critical on the battlefield. 

BOOM: 

Ukraine has significantly boosted its production of the 2S22 Bohdana 155mm howitzers with funds from allies under the new funding system, ... . Artillery systems remain critical in this war. ...

The Bohdana is a NATO-standard, self-propelled howitzer produced by Ukraine's Kramatorsk Heavy Duty Machine Tool Building Plant, and Goncharov described it as "a symbol of resistance and the symbol of Ukrainian industry." [emphasis added]

The offering is good. 

Small drones have chrome and tail fins. Artillery is a work horse in what is still a combined arms effort.

UPDATE: The Army won't be able to ramp up its production to reach its goal of producing 100,000 155mm shells per month until mid-2026. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: Photo of 2S22 from Wikipedia: By Сергій Воронков - https://armyinform.com.ua/2021/05/udoskonalenu-sau-bogdana-pereviryly-bojovoyu-strilboyu/, CC BY 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=106068435

The Winter War of 2022 Gets Baked in Alaska

How will the Alaska meeting affect the Winter War of 2022 as it grows ever closer to 2026?

On the battlefield, Ukraine's commitment of a National Guard corps (a division as we'd call it) to deal with Russian penetrations of Ukraine's lines in the axis of advance northeast of Pokrovsk demonstrated what I said last week about what a Russian division could do if committed against Ukraine's thinly manned front line:

The Russian penetration of Ukrainian lines northeast of Pokrovsk last week was bigger and more dangerous than some analysts initially concluded.

We know this because we know what it took for Ukrainian forces to block further Russian advances—and then begin rolling back the incursion this week. It took all or some of around 10 brigades and regiments, including several fighting under the banner of the Ukrainian national guard’s new 1st Azov Corps.

The extent of the Ukrainian counter-attack is unclear.

I've long wanted Ukraine to hit those spearheads like this. Is this a one-off? A new trend? Telegraphing something bigger there--or somewhere else? Also, I was worried about Russia's penetrations in the area but several stories suggested it was fine, so I stopped worrying as much. But it apparently took a lot of Ukrainian forces to end the threat.

Amazingly, despite this development the most exciting action took place far from the front. Do we know what was agreed to in Alaska between Trump and Putin? 

This was an interesting pre-meeting point regarding America's secondary sanctions on India by imposing heavy tariffs as punishment for buying Russian oil:

It’s possible that the upcoming meeting could be promising but not decisive. It’s possible Putin will continue his negotiating strategy of delaying results to try and change the military situation in Ukraine. And it’s possible that the summit will be canceled or postponed. But in my view, the threat to India means that Putin needs a settlement. This will be a matter of geopolitics, but it will also be determined by internal Russian politics, or simply by Putin’s private consideration.

And let me just say that I appreciate the message from the U.S. to Russia by holding the meeting on former Russian territory that America bought from Russia that has proven to be a great buffer against Russian aggression. And which makes America an Arctic state so it isn't just smaller nations opposing Russian ambitions to dominate the region. Or maybe it was just a taunt. Which is fine, too. Which would reinforce the India tariffs point, I suppose.

Anyway. 

Did the meeting outcome reflect this Russian weakness? 

No it did not. There was no ceasefire deal. Putin's long discussion of anything but a ceasefire and Trump's game face during that telegraphed the lack of immediate results, and when he spoke he "emphasized that the meeting had been 'productive,' but that the US and Russian delegations reached 'no deal.'" 

For those speculating about a new Munich, the outcome should be a relief. That's a defeat for Putin, right?

And for those who say Putin won by simply appearing with an American president, why? What does that really do for Putin? Show that America gave him a chance to end the war and he refused to take it?

Nor is another meeting certain given Putin's apparent lack of movement away from his maximalist objectives to control or at least dominate Ukraine. Which should be puzzling given that Russia endures heavy casualties, economic problems, and looming secondary sanctions to punish those who essentially fund Putin's war on Ukraine, symbolized by American tariff actions against friendly India which buys cheap Russian oil. 

If Putin needs a settlement because of all this, Trump--who is willing to put business before pleasure when it comes to coping with Russia's current bout of aggression (seemingly more of a dead cat bounce than a true revival)--is Putin's best hope. Trump doesn't want Russia to win the war. But he is willing to provide an economic safety net to make it possible to end the war. While I think the threat of escalation to nuclear war is grossly over-stated, shit happens. All things being equal I'd like to end that small threat.

But if Putin needs a settlement--and I've long thought he does--he apparently doesn't need it right now. And part of the problem may be that Putin isn't balancing what is good or bad for Russia, but what is good or bad for his personal survival. Right now, Putin probably doesn't think he could survive what will look like a defeat by agreeing to stop trying to conquer or dominate Ukraine.

How might Putin portray a deal to end his invasion as a way to save Russia from China? America led by a president willing to put business (ending the Russian active threat and resisting the China "pacing" threat) before pleasure (punishing Russia for its crime of brutally invading Ukraine) could absolutely help with that.

There was no deal to end the Winter War of 2022 coming out of the Alaska meeting. At least not one that is apparent. Perhaps Putin's long-winded recounting of better days in America-Russia relations set the stage for a plan that saves Ukraine, Russia, and Putin. Hopefully, Trump's claim the meeting was "productive" hints at something bigger than just a ceasefire. 

Has Trump decided to expand the problem to overcome Putin's ceasefire reluctance?

After his high-stakes summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin and ahead of his meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Trump announced his intention to bring a more final end to the war.

"It was determined by all that the best way to end the horrific war between Russia and Ukraine is to go directly to a peace agreement, which would end the war, and not a mere ceasefire agreement, which often times do not hold up," Trump wrote in a Truth Social post on Saturday.

While some portray this as a victory for Putin, I've thought a ceasefire that never got to a peace treaty would simply replicate Russia's post-Crimea invasion policy. 

It is also interesting in light of my views on what Putin could do to save himself by posing as the savior of Russia who ended (turn down the lights and squint) the alleged NATO threat and gained its help to Make Russia Great in the Far East Again (probably a better acronym in Russian is available).

And Europeans were invited to remotely join Trump's meeting with Zelensky at the White House on Sunday. 

But I know I'm letting longstanding hopes for flipping Russia lead my speculation down that path. Heck, I tried to see that in the months leading up to Russia's invasion. We'll see.

UPDATE (Monday): I reject the notion that meeting Putin in Alaska legitimized Russia and/or its aggression. Russia's size, military potential, and nukes legitimize Russia as a great power. 

Americans met the Soviets all the time during the Cold war in recognition of that status without lifting the USSR economic isolation that largely held firm. Nor did America ever recognize the Soviet's conquest of the Baltic States or accept its occupation of Eastern European states yoked to Moscow with the facade of the Warsaw Pact "alliance."

As long as we don't try to give Russia what it hasn't earned on the battlefield and undermine whatever opposition there is to Putin by letting Putin claim he snatched victory from the jaws of defeat, talking is fine.

But we must view talks as a means to defeating Russia and not a means to getting any deal regardless of the details. 

UPDATE (Monday): Surely the parade of NATO member, NATO, EU,  and Ukraine's leaders heading into the White House shows that Putin has not divided the West over Putin's invasion. Breathe, people.

UPDATE (Monday): Just going to say that for years I've been advising people not to panic over Trump and Ukraine:

U.S. President Donald Trump told President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Monday that the United States would help guarantee Ukraine's security in any deal to end Russia's war there, though the extent of any promised assistance was not immediately clear.

And consider that this means supporting NATO states protecting Ukraine. So my similar advice about Trump and NATO applies, too. 

UPFATE (Friday): It seems like Ukraine is carrying out more significant local counter-attacks the last month or so. Is this telegraphing something bigger or just a decision to start punching Russian spearheads in the nose when they advance beyond their established lines? 

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. 

NOTE: I made the image with Bing. 

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.  

In case you missed it on Substack: Don't Worry. Be the Worry

In case you missed it on Substack: Navy in a Box

In case you missed it on Substack: Is Ukraine Proving Tanks are Less Important?

In case you missed it on Substack: War Plan Orange 2.0

The VP confirmed "the Trump Administration's consistent position that the United States will no longer directly fund the Ukrainian military effort, but that Europe can continue to buy weapons from US manufacturers for Ukraine and Europe's own defensive needs." Note the "directly" modifier.

Good: "The Navy plans to build a new dry dock at Puget Sound Naval Shipyard that can accommodate its largest aircraft carriers and nuclear-powered submarines into the 22nd century." 

This isn't the first time Western leaders have believed giving territory to Jew-hating monsters will provide peace for our time: "Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Monday that his country will recognize a Palestinian state in September, joining a growing list of Western allies ... "

Unlike the U.S. Navy and Coast Guard, the Chinese have ships to spare: "A China Coast Guard vessel was chasing a Philippine ship when it hit one of Beijing's destroyers."

Massing four carriers is a photo-op and not a demonstration of Distributed Maritime Operations. 

Subliminal offensive: "A flotilla of three Chinese cutters was spotted near the waters of Manila’s northernmost island chain, prompting the Philippine Coast Guard to track their movements in the Luzon Strait. " 

Via Instapundit, how humanitarian aid feeds war. Add that to the Well, Duh files. 

As long as humans fly them, that should be our advantage: "China has a lot of impressive new warplanes entering service. The men, and a few women, who pilot these aircraft are a problem."

Good: "The United States is restoring a World War II-era airfield on Tinian, a tiny, strategically important Pacific island in its territory in the Northern Mariana Islands[.]" I've mentioned this before. So take your time, eh?

The U.S. nuclear deterrent isn't vulnerable to a command-and-control decapitation strike. 

One aspect of North Korea's decision to send troops to fight for Putin is that they are trusted, quality light infantry. I had assumed North Korea would send ill-trained cannon fodder he'd be happy to see die in the war in exchange for Russian payment.

Was Iran too focused on nuclear warhead production to appreciate all that they need for a nuclear deterrent? Interesting question if Iran wants a nuclear deterrent and not simply enough nuclear warheads to detonate one in Tel Aviv. 

Trump ordered the National Guard to Washington, D.C. to free up police to control crime: "Between 100-200 soldiers at any given time will be supporting law enforcement with administrative tasks, logistics and physical presence, according to the Army." Will this last longer than 30 days?

Supply UGVs seem like they have real potential.

Is Guam too crowded for Singapore to train on? "The Department of the Air Force has scrapped a plan to base a dozen Singapore air force F-15SG Eagle fighters on Guam, a U.S. territory in the Pacific, according to a recent decision." 

Interesting: "some American special operations forces (SOF) will begin fielding new wearable tech designed to keep a real-time eye on their vitals as well as integrate with systems designed to warn command posts should the operator be exposed to dangerous gases or chemicals[.]" 

The president of the Philippines said his country would be dragged "kicking and screaming" into any war over Taiwan because of proximity and Filipinos working in Taiwan. America needs the proximity. 

Wargaming in the military. For learning or validating what you want? To be fair, if memory serves me, one major wargame intended to test command, control, and logistics was hijacked into an OPFOR-style ambush.

The Army observes how Russia fights a war. Good timing for that group. I've mentioned their recent report to comment on the risk of long wars. But I have not yet actually read it. Bad TDR. 

There has been a lot of commentary on the Alaska meeting between Trump and Putin. I have no idea what to expect so won't speculate. And the summit will be over by the time this publishes. So what would be the point?

The Iranians think they get the bad end of security deals with Russia. 

Getting fired from Navy command. Long and way outside my lanes. But you may find it interesting. 

Small fighter drones join the Navy. As foretold by the prophecy. I mentioned the new systems but doubt they provide enough volume.

Did America hand China the tools to dominate Artificial Intelligence? Sometimes I wonder if we are just trying to lure China down a technology dead end. AI has uses for speeding processes, but I'm not ready to fling panties at AI.

Huh: "Russian officials are sounding increasingly alarmed and even paranoid in their public statements about the future of their country. ... Lavrov claimed in September of last year that Western governments have assembled a coalition of at least fifty countries in order to dismember Russia." It's self-inflicted.

Hi! "Three U.S. Air Force B-1B Lancer bombers arrived in Norway on Aug. 9, 2025, to begin Ally-led training operations as part of the latest Bomber Task Force Europe  25-4B." While Putin is in Alaska he'll be thinking about the Kola Peninsula.

Via Instapundit, one reason I don't fret about civil war today is that I'm old enough to remember leftist violence in the 1970s. Social media fanatics may be annoying but they can't Tweet a bomb.

There is bipartisan support in Congress to keep the AUKUS pact. 

A possible large German purchase of 30mm anti-aircraft guns for drone defense is reviving interest in the old air defense weapon. Precisely aimed auto-cannons are necessary if electronic warfare or microwave weapons can't put a bubble over targets.

The U.S. tested a small drone mounting a Claymore mine for anti-drone work. It could also strike ground targets. The article doesn't mention if the drone firing the Claymore survives firing. 

Helicopters must be wary when near the front line because of the many threats to them. As I said, terrain is now "armor" for helicopters. 

This is a training agreement and not an alliance: "A defense pact between Manila and Tokyo will go into effect next month, furthering a new phase of security cooperation aimed at enhancing military-to-military training on Philippine soil."

The European Union is a new Soviet Union. Preaching to the TDR choir, he is.

No self-respecting air force should have them: "Next month India will retire the last of its Russian-designed MiG-21 fighters." 

The collateral damage of NGOs--many funded by America--keeps wars going. Development and social programs rather than food, medical care, and other aid to respond to a crisis led them astray.

Hopefully this sentiment exists in Russia, too--especially in leadership: "Most Ukrainians now favor ending the war with Russia through negotiations, as support for fighting until victory has dropped sharply since the early days of the conflict." But what price are Ukrainians willing to pay?

There is "famine" in Gaza because the UN-affiliated group that determines that loosened its definition. I always say to check the Definitions Section, don't I? Also, Hamas generates the data. And again, if Hamas didn't steal or stop humanitarian aid, the problem would be much less.

CRS report to Congress on hypersonic weapons.

The segregationist background of the Posse Comitatus Act. I don't think it taints it today. But it is humorous given who is insisting on interpreting its limits more broadly. But there are lawful roles. I had riot control training when I was in the Army National Guard.

Huh: "The United States is disputing China’s claim that it chased away an American warship conducting a freedom of navigation operation near Scarborough Shoal on Wednesday." Comrade Walter Mitty was clearly available for comment. 

Can Space Force make part-time Guardians work in a weird blend of active component and reserve component? Do they get active or reservist benefits? I'm skeptical. And I think Space Force reservists should be in the Reserves and not National Guard. 

South Korea is working on an air-launched ballistic missile. 

Sh*t got real. 

When I read that basic training "stress cards" in the past are "a bit of a myth" I interpret that as "not a myth." Tell me that barracks lawyers didn't use "stress control cards" exactly like that. Close enough for government work, I say. Not saying this was broad. I suspect it happened and surely symbolized laxity.

It seems to me that the Early Bird Brief by Defense News is noticeably infected with left-wing bias. You really need to sift the chaff from the wheat. I use it and find it useful. But I don't know what happened to it. Is the sponsor Lockheed Martin cool with this? I hesitate to complain ... .

Should America use its military against the drug cartels? No. Cartel money and ruthlessness mean a cartel defense is corrupting or intimidating our military in a lengthy campaign. Our military must remain untainted to defeat foreign threats. The China/cartel drug threat is real. But find or make another tool.

Using AI for propaganda and disinformation purposes. You might want to be careful about obeying odd orders just because you recognize the voice of your commander who you've known since West Point. AI is being used to conduct cyber-war on us. Is it safe to unleash AI within our systems to defeat those attacks?

The Thailand-Cambodia border dispute and Thai internal fissures. 

The Russian Mediterranean naval squadron was NATO target practice before Russia's Black Sea losses and the loss of naval facilities in Syria stretched it thin.

Can mercenaries defeat gangs and stabilize Haiti? "[Vectus Global has] reached a 10-year agreement with the Haitian government to fight the country's criminal gangs and set up a tax collection system." The UN has failed. Mercenaries could have a role. Fingers crossed. Depends on whether the media pounces.

From September 12-16, Russia and Belarus in "Zapad-2025, ... will simulate air defense and ground combat scenarios." The Anschluss continues. Which provides access for attacking NATO. Stay on alert in the Suwalki Corridor, eh? Ukraine should pay attention, too.

The notion that the U.S. military should have refused to follow lawful orders despite the orders being "credibly perceived as an ominous" act by one particular political faction is frightening. Shame on those authors.[LINK FIXED]

A big reason to stop throwing panties at small FPV drones: "Ukraine is still taking heavy casualties and slowly losing ground to Russian assaults despite being a world leader in developing, using and innovating with military UAS." Not a silver bullet. 

National Guard troops are essentially manning guard posts in Washington, D.C. 

Good: "The Space Force will assume control of all space missions currently handled by Air National Guard units by Oct. 1, a consolidation move that bypasses years of lobbying for a separate Space National Guard." 

CRS: "The size and composition of U.S. naval forces reflect the position of the United States as a Western Hemisphere power with a traditional goal since the 1940s of preventing the emergence of regional hegemons (and otherwise defending and promoting U.S. interests) in Eurasia." Indeed.

Homeland defense: "The U.S. Army will soon assume a broader mission in defending the U.S. homeland, expanding from a focus on countering intercontinental ballistic missiles to address a much wider variety of threats, from drones to cruise missiles to hypersonic weapons[.]" CONUS is no longer a sanctuary.

The Marines are serious about being a third navy as they practice anti-submarine warfare with their Ospreys on a big-deck amphibious warship. It's an expeditionary strike group rather than an amphibious ready group.

Russia learns: "A surge in Russian use of ballistic missiles with enhanced maneuvering capabilities has cut into the effectiveness of Ukraine’s Patriot surface-to-air missile systems[.]" 

This is disturbing: "Taiwan’s armed forces have developed a launch system for AGM-114 Hellfire missiles concealed inside what otherwise looks to be a civilian truck." The rules of war require making military forces distinct from civilians. China has an excuse to shoot up every civilian truck in a war.

The defense zone will be 30 miles deep: "Lithuania has announced that it is establishing a multi-layered defensive line composed in part of anti-tank obstacles, drainage ditches, minefields and more to fortify its borders." And man it. Latvia and Estonia should do the same or Lithuania's defenses will be outflanked.

The sainted international community only cares if it can blame Israel: "Over 150,000 African deaths are attributed to Islamic terrorist groups in the past ten years." 

So near to China. So far from America: "Myanmar, a nation of 56 million people located in Southeast Asia between Bangladesh, China, Laos and Thailand, has got lots of problems." 

China: If it can chase a ball and kick it, it can chase a dissident and kick it. 

Anti-access/area denial isn't just for PLA missiles: "The United States is discussing the possible deployment of more missile launchers to the Philippines[.]" 

I assumed we would if Europeans stepped up: "European leaders have praised President Donald Trump for agreeing to allow U.S. military support for a force they are mustering to police any future peace in Ukraine [.]" People panic too easily. 

Hezbollah to Lebanon: Nice little state you've got there. It would be a shame if anything was to happen to it. 

Europeans are supplying Ukraine with military aid. We need a way to get American stuff there in quantity through this or other innovative means that aren't "aid", as I noted in a Wednesday update in this post.

The Silent Eagle design led to the F-15EX. Ah. I had wondered if the F-15EX was just a rebranded F-15SE.

That was waaay outside the intelligence agencies lanes. We must clean that rot out.

I'm guessing those two words for DDG(X) will be "too expensive" if Navy warship design and construction history is a guide. Also, that's approaching battlecruiser tonnage. It's at least a heavy cruiser. Do ship classes mean nothing any more?

Enemies attack what they can: "A vast undersea infrastructure, spanning the world in the form of telecommunications cables and resource pipelines, for the most part lies unmonitored and unprotected on the ocean floor. Increasingly, these assets are coming under attack." Tip to Instapundit.

How will Putin's ability to wage war on Ukraine cope with heavy Russian casualties combined with the inability to fully control information about the war. 

The "new pragmatism" of Syria's Islamist rulers "reshaping" Syria? Or ... the old Islamist lying to Infidels to defend your gains. And to be fair, the author recognizes the problem.

"'The world is deaf' — the life of Afghanistan’s forgotten women[.]" This never gets old:

 

The Clash: London Calling.

Four years later, the defeat in Afghanistan still stings. And now the Taliban have a fellow jihadi government in Syria to keep them company. And parts of Britain, of course.

Israel is attacking Gaza City. Good luck. 

Problems beneath the shiny hulls of China's new and expanding fleet. But is it still good enough for government party work? 

With the backing of the West, Ukraine has the economic power to resist Russia. And Russia's population advantage is being put to the test by very heavy troop casualties. Maybe Russia is fine and can lose troops forever. Or maybe it will break suddenly. I don't think Ukraine is as vulnerable to this, but who knows?

Resistance to the USV Borg is Futile. In Theory

Let's not embarrass ourselves by being so obviously smitten by the new hot unmanned surface vessel (USV) weapon on the block. 

Russia conducted a fleet exercise that included USVs, in reaction to Ukraine's use of USVs to stop Russia from using the western Black Sea. Does that Russian exercise mean Russia will dominate the Baltic Sea? [LINK FIXED]

This wouldn't be the first time that naval lessons were hastily--and wrongly--learned, as the Austrian victory in the 1866 Battle of Lissa was seized upon when the Austro-Hungarian fleet defeated the armored Italian fleet that carried far more cannons than the Austrians who relied on ramming:

The CSS Albemarle sank union warships through ramming. Combined with Lissa’s inverse number of casualties to the number of guns many leaders believed the ram trumped the gun in the ironcladed future. Leaders drew the wrong lesson from the fight and generations of new ship construction included rams. 

Obviously, guns with well-trained and led crews were the way to go notwithstanding the ram panty flinging. And the author moves on to the evolution to spar torpedo- and torpedo-boats. 

[Ahem] I think we need to get a grip about what Ukraine's use of USVs can teach us about naval warfare.

Still, the author of the initial article reels it back in at the end:

While a window of opportunity exists in theory, any advantage Russia might have by using USVs offensively will be temporarily. 

Indeed. Big if true. In theory. But don't be hasty, eh? Fully appreciate the context of USV success.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

The Era of Great Power Casualties

It has been a long time since American forces endured serious, back-breaking levels of casualties. That would change in a war against China. Don't let silver-bullet futurists pretend casualties can be avoided.

American casualties would be quite high relative to what we are used to suffering should America fight China. And that's without the Army in ground combat:

China has a growing arsenal of hypersonic missiles and other advanced weapons that could pose a major threat to U.S. ships, including aircraft carriers, which can have a crew of up to 5,000 sailors and Marines. ...

The reason the casualty numbers are not higher is the scenarios did not envision U.S. troops being involved in ground combat, Cancian told Task & Purpose. Taiwanese ground forces fought Chinese troops in these wargames. 

An Army role in Taiwan is quite possible. And an Army role in INDOPACOM would be useful, generally, in a war against China.

The Golden Hour standard for treating casualties won't be met. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

You Will Be Seen and You Will Be Attacked

I'm not sure what this "if you can be seen, you can be killed" happy talk is all about. There are no "can be" or "if" involved in an expanded No-Man's Land that starts long before you reach your forward line of friendly troops.

The Army is figuring out how you fight under the constant threat of enemy observation and strike capabilities: 

For tank units, that means thinking about protecting formations with a layered defense, similar to the way a naval aircraft carrier group maneuvers at sea.

Any infrastructure or support units will be targets, too. A lot of defensive effort--hiding, dispersal, mobility, air defense, and preemptive strikes on enemy assets that target you--will be needed away from the No-Man's Land before you even begin to think about moving the front line. 

Route clearance must be updated, practiced, and carried out.

Camouflage must be updated, practiced, and carried out.

And layered defense--including fighter UAVs that I've been droning on about at least since I did in Army magazine in 2018--is necessary. For combat units and for support units "behind" the front.

Don't be a land version of USS Chesapeake when your unit rolls out of its encampment or base, thinking you are safe until you are in line of sight of enemy forward outposts.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: Photo by Charlie Duke/U.S. Army from the article.

Breaking Focus to Kill Drones

A successful drone (UAS, or unmanned aerial systems) defense that distracts a unit from its primary mission is a successful enemy drone campaign even if the defenses don't break.

This is absolutely vital to take into account:

“To counter (unmanned aerial systems), it can quickly burden small unit leaders,” said Col. Donald Neal, commander of the Vilseck, Germany-based 2nd Cavalry Regiment.

This is why I proposed drone fighters to protect what I called the "brown skies" just over the tip of the Army spear back in 2018 in Army magazine:

Clearly, units at the company level and below need a better means of controlling their own brown skies airspace. Yet rather than burdening lower-level units with additional ground-based air defense gun and missile systems, air-to-air combat UASs would provide better air defense than either high-flying advanced fighter aircraft or distant higher-echelon air defense weapons that will have difficulty identifying and tracking small aerial threats--let alone engaging them--before the threats strike and return to enemy positions. ...

Much as Army units carry out their operations unaware of the battles taking place in the blue skies that keep enemy aircraft away from the battlefield, units maneuvering and engaging in direct fire can't afford to be distracted by fighting for the brown skies above them.

This was once theoretical, but new counter-drone weapons entering arsenals make it a real concern. Of course, small unit leaders can be burdened with their own offensive small drones, too.

UPDATE: Interesting:

Russian infantry receive instruction on how to engage drones as a central part of their limited training before being sent to the frontlines[.]

Already insufficient training to be infantry is shorter just to survive drones. So something else has an easier time killing the soldiers.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Skyraider II Accomplishes Its Mission!

 

 

Killing jihadis from the air is fun and easy, if testing works out:

The OA-1K Skyraider II is designed as a cost-effective, crewed aircraft capable of supporting special operations forces in geographically isolated regions. It is equipped for mission sets that include close air support, precision strike, and armed intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR).

At this point, I'll need some explaining about why drones can't do the special forces missions. 

Also, as I noted in 2016, its real purpose is to kill the A-10. 

With that mission nearly accomplished--after testing that I suspect will go on until 2027--there is no way the Air Force will buy the Skyraider II. Trust is gone, as far as I'm concerned.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: Image from the article. 

The Winter War of 2022 Gets Diluted

I've repeatedly asked how thin the front lines are given that tiny Russian infantry assaults manage to infiltrate Ukrainian lines and slowly push the Russian invasion forward despite the heavy casualties that drone-led firepower inflicts on the Russian attackers. Is this a bug or a feature of Ukraine's war effort?

The war goes on. Although one ISW analyst said that with Russia leaning into Ukraine across most of the front that Russia has the edge on the battlefield. Not that things can't change quickly--for better or worse. But despite the high price Russia is paying, it has the edge at the moment. And despite a planned meeting between Trump and Putin in Alaska at the end of the week, Russia remains committed to defeating Ukraine. America must not give Russia what it can't achieve through brutal aggression.

This is noteworthy (RuAF: Russian armed forces; AFU: armed forces of Ukraine):

At present, the frontline is so thinned out that full-scale encirclements in the traditional sense are unlikely to occur again. Instead, the opposing forces are more likely to "slip" through each other’s positions. For example, regarding the attack in the Siversk direction, a researcher under the nickname Playfra writes that the RuAF simply drove past Ukrainian positions, then got lost and came under fire from the AFU. 

This example shows how extreme it is in one section of the front:

Gady also highlights serious personnel shortages on the Ukrainian side. In some positions, just eight soldiers are defending a 900-meter stretch of the frontline. Even with artillery and drone support, this is critically insufficient—it is no surprise that assault groups and even armored columns can pass through such positions unimpeded. Under normal conditions, a 1-kilometer [0.6 mi] section of the frontline should be held by around 250 troops (roughly 2 km [1.2 mi] per battalion).

It certainly explains why small Russian attacks are working to take land even if the price Russia pays is very high.

But it also suggests that the Russian claims of a juggernaut inside Ukraine able to plow forward despite losses is just a Potemkin Army, as I suggested some time ago:

I have strong doubts that Russia is managing to increase the raw numbers of its troops fighting inside Ukraine to continue its grinding offensive as long as it takes. Does Putin have a Potemkin Invasion Force? Would he even know he only has that?

If Russia had even a single motor rifle division in good shape it could penetrate Ukrainian lines despite the initial losses, overrun the FPV drone operator bunkers, and break into the Ukrainian rear areas to roll of the front or push deep. Air power (big and drones) and artillery could be concentrated to support the offensive. Crappier Russian units could follow in the division's wake.

What we are seeing in Ukraine is weird but expected, as I wrote a few years before the expanded invasion:

As I started out, we are witnessing a natural progression of thinning out the battlefield. Yes, future frontlines will have fewer troops per mile but the gaps in troops will be filled with firepower making it no less a frontline than the past when you had to have continuous lines of troops in trenches. Then there were platoon strongpoints with gaps covered my longer range machine guns and mortars--and eventually accurate and timely indirect artillery.

So I feel confident in saying that a future empty battlefield will still have frontlines.

The front is still there, but in Ukraine it is a broader No-Man's Land that extend behind both side's outpost lines. Lower troop density on the battlefield is a natural reaction to increases in firepower capabilities (including communications and reconnaissance), as Strategypage described:

Two centuries ago, you had nearly 5,000 troops per square kilometer of battlefield. The declined to 3,900 150 years ago, to 404 in World War I, 36 in World War II, 2.34 during the 1991 Gulf war, and today, it's down to less than two per square kilometer. Without sufficient space, modern combat units cannot realistically practice for war. Without that practice, more troops get killed the first time they do it for real, while being shot at.

Density is so low now that Ukraine's infantry is basically a forward observer force when on defense:

Not too long ago, Ukraine’s drones spotted targets for the infantry. Now the relationship is reversed: all along the 700-mile front line of Russia’s wider war on Ukraine, the infantry’s job is to spot targets for the drones.

And robotic systems are trying to make up for the shortage of infantry and cope with Russian aerial drones:

Ukraine is equipping their combat brigades with ground-based combat and transport robots in addition to drones. The ground robots come in different versions. Some are used for planting and removing landmines. Other drones advance along the ground while firing remotely controlled machine guns. These systems can fire accurately at moving targets during the day and at night. There are also drones for transporting supplies to the front lines and carrying casualties back to first aid stations and field hospitals.

While I don't doubt the front is thinly manned, I still wonder why Ukraine's front is so thinly manned in so many areas when a little thickening might stop the Russian infiltration. The Sumy front is an exception, it seems. 

It has been a long time since I've read stories about Ukrainian recruiting problems. I thought the problem was addressed well enough. If not, where are the stories? If so, why aren't there more infantry on the front line? 

My explanation is that I keep thinking if I was the god of Ukraine's war I'd be starving the front to build up a strategic reserve of units to throw into the war at the right moment when Russia staggers and culminates.  

And I am compelled to wonder if Russia is doing the same thing. Because, again, that's what I'd do if I was the paranoid, vodka-addled god of Russia's invasion.

Further, as Ukraine trades space for time with their thinly manned meat grinder, it builds a three-deep line of fortifications and obstacles to fall back on once the fortress belt of cities to hold can't hold. But if there is so little infantry, how can Ukraine hold that fortified line for long? Unless there is infantry to hold the line or ample reserves for counter-attacks to throw back penetrations, what use is this defensive line? 

I just can't accept that both sides are for the most part simply flinging whatever they organize into the frontline meat grinder. Yet that's what happened throughout 2022. Ukraine loudly built a reserve after that campaign to use in summer 2023. Ukraine both delayed the attack too much, giving Russia time to build fortifications; yet didn't have enough time to build units capable of advancing in the face of resistance. 

Has Ukraine learned it needs to take that time? And two years later, has Ukraine been able to quietly build that force? I'd like to think so. But maybe I need to accept that I am seeing an inability to launch a major counteroffensive. And nobody waging the war is able to do what I'd do even if they think like I do.

Still, part of me whispers that Trump's meeting with Putin could be intended as the ultimate justification for backing Ukraine if Putin refuses to end the war on anything but terms indistinguishable from a battlefield victory.

But if Putin refuses a deal can America do anything decisive? More sanctions and more weapons with Ukraine on the defensive isn't rapidly decisive--if that can even be decisive.

But a Ukrainian counteroffensive prepared for the last two years and learning from the failures of summer 2023 would be the best punishment for Putin failing to take an opportunity to truly end his invasion of Ukraine. 

I just don't know. We shall see. 

UPDATE (Monday): This seems overly optimistic for Ukraine:

While most Ukrainians are war weary by now, few want to abandon efforts to defend their homeland. Meanwhile the war has become one of attrition and the Russians are losing.

The Russians could break first and lose. But even if they do, Ukraine could lose too. Further, Russia still has the initiative. Unless Ukraine can regain the initiative at least on part of the front, Russia could win despite its losses.

UPDATE (Monday) This article on Ukraine's Kursk offensive a year ago has this interesting observation by the commander of Ukraine's military:

“Victories love silence. They are born in silence and prepared in silence,” Syrsky said.

Indeed. 

UPDATE (Wednesday): Russians pushed through non-existent Ukrainian frontlines, walking through unmanned fortifications. ISW minimizes the thrusts:

Russian forces continued to infiltrate Ukrainian defenses east and northeast of Dobropillya (northwest of Pokrovsk) using limited sabotage and reconnaissance groups on August 12. Russian forces have yet to be able to deploy reinforcements to hold and exploit this tactical penetration and will likely face obstacles in trying to do so.

This really highlights the low density of Ukrainian lines. I don't know why ISW minimizes the advances. In the past I've seen narrow Russian advances seemingly ripe for counter-attack and destruction. Yet no Ukrainian local counter-attack makes Russia pay for the advance. Will Ukrainian reinforcements drive the Russians back or will a new line be established as Ukraine keeps falling back?

Russia can't keep this up forever given their casualties. But they might be able to keep it up long enough. Because with the initiative, the Russians could again find a weak point. And one day--assuming this Russian success isn't that day--the Russians may be able to exploit it and take land in wholesale lots. 

UPDATE (Friday) ISW:

Russian forces have yet to reinforce and consolidate positions east and northeast of Dobropillya, and Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that Ukrainian reinforcements are stabilizing the situation. ISW continues to assess that Russian forces do not control the territory east and northeast of Dobropillya where Russian forces recently infiltrated.

Assessments that the penetration to the west were mere raiders without support was right. But the penetration 90 north is still there. Will the reserves that quickly cleaned up the western thrust stay to pinch off the northern narrow salient? 

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

NOTE: I grabbed the image (before it apparently was removed) from The Dupuy Institute from a link now dead. 

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.  

In case you missed it on Substack: War is Hell and Hellishly Long

In case you missed it on Substack: Who is China Keeping Busy?

In case you missed it on Substack: America in Strategic Overwatch 

In case you missed it on Substack: The Marine Corps Should Be the Marine Corps

Data flow is the biggest challenge for Golden Dome. Also, what is its scope? North America or the globe? Tip to Instapundit.

Pentagon signs largest deal thus far for AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles.

GAO: "The U.S. defense industrial base and all branches of the U.S. military depend heavily on materials produced by China to make and use critical weapon systems, creating national security risks[.]" 

Standing Maritime Group 1: "NATO has deployed a maritime task group made up of Dutch, Norwegian, Portuguese, and German vessels to boost its maritime presence in the Arctic and High North."

I concluded this early on: "The 2020 House Intelligence Committee report had concluded that Russian strongman Vladimir Putin’s 'principal motivations in these operations were to undermine faith in the US democratic process' and that he didn’t necessarily prioritize propping up one candidate over the other." 

China needs Iranian oil: "Last month Iran received Chinese HQ9B air defense systems. These restored the Iranian losses to recent Israeli airstrikes that wiped out most of their air defenses." 

Hmmm: "Ukrainian robotic vehicles induced several Russian soldiers to surrender without any Ukrainian troops present." In 1991, Iraqi troops tried to surrender to an American UAV. Ukrainian drones should drop "surrender kits" to Russians trying to infiltrate Ukraine's thin front line. 

Is the Left-Islamist alliance in Britain going to collapse? Being "goodlife" only makes the Left a later Islamist target for killing. But I'm skeptical the Left will recoil from their suicidal path.

The Brazilian supreme court has turned into a dictatorial committee to sustain the elites. 

The Army needs the AbramsX? But that vehicle is not a prototype--it's a demonstration model of various technologies that could be used to update the Abrams. 

I remain conflicted about whether crappy looking ships reflect poor capabilities or whether hull rust is separate from readiness to fight.  

Why are Britain and France rewarding Hamas and its jihadi allies for brutality that justifies hunting their members down and killing them no matter how long it takes?

The U.S. pulled out of a small base in Syria where American and local forces destroyed a Wagner mercenary force when it attacked the base in 2018. 

So no air defense system wouldn't have a worse health and housing market effect on Guam? FFS.

Killing hypersonic missiles is fun and easy.

Ukraine is increasingly using drones to destroy incoming attacking drones. All is proceeding according to the prophecy. 

Recruiting: "A disproportionate number of recruits come from the southern and Rocky Mountain states. The northeast, upper Midwest, and west coast are much more difficult to recruit from and the recruits are not as good because of less education, overweight, and bad attitudes." 

Maybe: "The United States has finally caught on to need to stockpile and train troops to use drones. The appearance of drone warfare in Ukraine was one of those infrequent revolutions in how wars are fought using new weapons and tactics." Or perhaps an evolution.

Israel is poised to fully occupy Gaza. Are Gazans exhausted and bloodied enough from serving as Hamas human shields to turn against Hamas when Israeli troops are around? 

I'm not against exploiting drones. But the drone capabilities described to restore movement to the battlefield are not unique to drones. I'd rather focus on providing the capabilities regardless of whether they are drones. Let's not get fixated on a particular weapon round of ammunition at this moment in time.

More Patriots battalions plus some for Guam's defensive suite. 

Hmmm. Has China pushed AI because it counted on it to overcome problems teaching the PLA to fight jointly? 

The U.S. Army tested the Dark Eagle hypersonic missile with a Multi-Domain Task Force in Australia. It is intended to kill Chinese A2/AD assets.

Australia will base its next primary surface warship on Japan's Mogami-class frigate. 

Was China premature in cutting us off? "The US is scrambling to get hold of the rare earth metals needed to make weapons after China slashed its supply to American defence firms."

Huh: "Ukraine said that it stole troves of classified information on Russia's newest nuclear missile submarine during a recent operation, including data that points to the vessel's vulnerabilities." Those SSBNs are vital to Russia.

Iran has plenty of nuclear scientists ... so far. 

I thought Brexit was a huge deal for Britain to escape continental EU autocracy. I've worried the empire might come back. I failed to appreciate just how much Britain's own elites internalized the continental autocratic impulse. How do the British exit from that? And again, Vance was so off base, eh?

Ukraine's new "Mongoose interceptor drone has a jet engine and an automatic homing system, which allows the drone to approach an enemy drone, fire a projectile into a drone’s engine or propeller, and then continue its mission or return for refueling." As the prophecy foretold.

The Army is planning to release its air and missile defense strategy in October. 

Stop panicking. Canceling U.S. participation a long-planned defense forum in Australia has nothing to do with downgrading American-Australian defense ties. Things will be fine. It isn't canceled--it's postponed.

The Army gets closer to having autonomous mobile rocket launchers. Huh. 

I've noted this before, but dummy assets are another practice to reduce the effectiveness of persistent battlefield surveillance. 

I respect the admiral's writing. But he really needs to get a grip. I seriously doubt any subs changed planned movements. And maybe Putin learned that waving his nukes around isn't cost free.

I sure experienced shark attack and bay tossing. And some other efforts intended to induce stress on me personally! 

A man hides behind his military record to spread Hamas propaganda. Yes, every bit of suffering in Gaza is the fault of Hamas, which hides behind human shields. Aguilar is just "goodlife", really.

The private security industry for Brazil's top 1%. "The Brazilian armed forces are, by Latin American standards, well trained and equipped." Spending just 1.1% of GDP on defense makes sense for the giant of South America with no real military threat to it. And corruption would lose a lot of it anyway.

Who actually hates Gazans? "Peace talks between Israel and Islamic terrorist group Hamas continue to not happen. Hamas has been interfering with Israeli and foreign efforts to deliver food in Gaza, plus the UN claims the sole right to distribute it but won’t actually do that. So the food just sits there in piles." 

Eighty years ago, using nukes on Japan saved a lot of lives--Americans, Japanese, and others who would have died with a war dragging on with fighting and blockades. But then America had a monopoly--and no more ready to go--so escalation to general nuclear war was not a threat. Today the threat is real.

Sounds like an aerial helicopter insertion followed by a Thunder Run back to friendly lines on foot: "Ukrainian special forces on Tuesday claimed to have killed more than 330 Russian troops in a dawn raid behind enemy lines."

Communist Cuba is poor. But don't imagine that the elites don't have the money. 

The Army restarted long-dormant Stinger production as it works on a new shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missile. 

Ethiopia refused to lease civilian passenger planes to Russia. 

Will the U.S. halve its planned F-35 fighter buy to pursue the F-47 6th generation fighter? It seems like the F-35 is a good plane that pilots like. Are we judging the existing F-35 against the idealized future F-47 wonder plane? I'm skeptical.

Egypt didn't let Gazan refugees into Egypt through their border; let Hamas smuggle across that border; and didn't even want Gaza back when it had the chance. So they can shove their criticisms of the West over Gaza. 

North Korea lost 4,000 KIA of their initial 12,000 contingent sent to fight for Russia. North Korea will send 30,000 more, including support troops. Their troops are expected to fight inside Ukraine. Russia is paying with nuclear weapons technology.

How the U.S.-India trade deal unexpectedly collapsed. For now, I assume.

An overdue refusal to fling panties at drones. They aren't a silver bullet. But they can be part of a complete breakfast. 

CSIS on Midnight Hammer: "We determined that the U.S. and Israeli strikes inflicted significant damage on Iran’s nuclear program by destroying key infrastructure and human capital." 

Oh? "'As two tigers are fighting ferociously in the valley, a sage monkey is sitting on top of the mountain, looking down and waiting to see how it will end.' Beijing sees itself as the wise monkey, waiting patiently as Moscow and Washington erode their respective combat arsenals." Not quite. China's happy with Putin?

Forty years of the military embracing joint warfare hasn't worked. Egad. Yet we've trained flag and general officers in jointness to the point of not being proficient in their home service? While top leadership must integrate services, synergy comes from each service winning their domain in a joint effort.

An articulated Hellfire warhead. Interesting evolution of precision. Although I suppose top-attack ATGM warheads were the first stab at that. 

Hmmm: "The US Army is working on a new space policy to serve as the “umbrella” for a new Army space strategy and doctrine, as well as the foundation for future requirements and acquisitions[.]" 

What's the true size of Russia's nuclear force? Hell, what's the true state of that force? 

Can Lebanon disarm Hezbollah and end its state-within-a-state status? 

Honored to be part of the Hamas propaganda war. Tip to Instapundit.

National defense: "Canadian defense officials have strongly made the case that Ottawa should stick to a plan to buy 88 Lockheed Martin Corp F-35 fighter jets rather than splitting the order[.]" 

The Russians are learning to use their drones: "Russian UAV adaptations are likely achieving some effects of battlefield air interdiction (BAI): The use of airpower to strike targets in the near rear of the frontline to impact battlefield operations in the near term." It's an anti-access/area denial system behind enemy lines.

B-21s will need sustained sorties in a future Pacific war unlike current bombers and their one-off strikes.

China increased its navy and coast guard activities while India exercised with the Philippines in the South China Sea.

The British collaborator. You thought I was joking that Starmer bends the knee to the Cheese Throne?

WTAF?! "A string of previously undisclosed break-ins at Tennessee National Guard armories last fall marks the latest in a growing series of security breaches at military facilities across the United States, raising fresh concerns about the vulnerability of US armories to theft and intrusion."

Violence continues in Mali with Russia replacing France as the major foreign force. 

We still fund that murder??!! "Earlier this year the United States threatened to halt $336 million is aid to the Palestinian Authority/PA if the Palestinians did not halt their Pay for Slay program." 

Big, if true. It's basically ratifying Azerbaijan's battlefield victory and hoping Armenia can hold what it still has. Tip to Instapundit.

No! Way! I continue to hold the unfashionable opinion that dead jihadis have a zero recidivism rate. Tip to Instapundit.

India has "paused" arms purchases from America after America imposed high tariffs on Indian exports because India purchases Russian oil, helping Russia fund its invasion of Ukraine. Other security ties remain unaffected.

The China-backed government of Myanmar is losing the civil war. Nothing much seems to change, really: "Myanmar has been mired in chaos for centuries and is considered a failed state." 

The European Union is no super power. Well, sure. But the proto-imperial EU will be satisfied to eliminate the annoying prefix and rule Europe. All it needs is authority. Anything beyond that horizon is bonus territory. Does Trump loathe the EU? Everyone should.

Oh? "China is believed to have developed a plan to eliminate or greatly reduce Western interests in the Middle East and allow China to step in as the new foreign influence." A plan? LOL. Have fun storming the castle!

Hamas goes to Plan B: "Having unleashed a genocidal terrorist attack on Israel two years ago, and still holding Israeli hostages, Hamas is now doing the same to Gaza." Hamas is responsible for Gazan deaths and suffering.

If true, don't save them to "achieve" a deal: "Iran’s government is in big trouble." 

Small drones are useful in land warfare. But don't fling panties at them. 

Via Instapundit, Japan is embracing peace through military strength. Discussing even nukes is no longer forbidden. Bravo, China.

The M1E3 tank will be "under 60 tons so the tank can use more bridges. E3 has a modular design making it easier to replace broken components or install upgraded or new components. E3 has an improved fire control system, upgraded sensors and upgraded protection." South Korea is going to a 130mm gun.

Israel appears determined to actually destroy Hamas notwithstanding the widespread disinformation on behalf of Hamas to demonize Israel and ignore Hamas crimes that too many in the world embrace.

North Korea is dismantling propaganda speakers at the DMZ following South Korea's dismantling of its speakers.