The Winter War of 2022 Stands On a Cracking Foundation

Russia is in a slow race against time as its aerial onslaught and ground forces kill Ukrainians and press into Ukraine. But the ability to sustain that pressure is getting shakier after 3-1/2 years of war.

Russia is attacking along a wide front in Ukraine, slowly clawing forward despite heavy losses: 

Russia’s aims are not simply territorial. Analysts say it wants to methodically destroy the Ukrainian military, as Moscow slowly advances its own troops. The biggest challenge for Moscow may be far from the front lines, as the Russian economy can no longer keep pace with escalating military spending. 

The article questions whether Ukraine will still be armed by America. But I have few worries about that. Ways will be found and Europe is slowly (too slowly) building the capacity to replace American weapons and ammunition. 

It is taking time, but the trend toward a war of attrition clear early in the war is recognized:

Russia may well be able to grind down Ukraine. That was my view before the war--a partial and ugly win by a Russian military not nearly as good as Russian propaganda portrayed--that left most of Ukraine independent. I was right that the war would be neither short nor glorious for Russia.

The question now is amazingly whether Russia wins. Russia initially performed worse than even I suspected and the West has armed and supported Ukraine more than I hoped. Russia could find itself the victim of that process. 

And until we see one side ground down and breaking, we may not be able to predict it.

Remember, too, as I addressed in my post quoted above, Russia's greater population does not mean it can out-kill Ukraine's military. Especially as the far greater Western GDP is mobilized to help smaller Ukraine build the means to fight. Three years after I wrote that, the war rages and I still don't know who is more vulnerable to breaking. Putin may be thinking of doubling down on his superior population:

Russian State Duma Defense Committee Chairperson Andrei Kartapolov introduced a bill to the Russian State Duma on July 22 that would change the Russian military conscription administrative process to a year-round cycle, as opposed to the current system, which only processes conscripts during Russia’s semi-annual spring and fall cycles.

The question for me is whether using that greater efficiency to put more men into the meat grinder will repair the cracks or deepen the fissures.

UPDATE (Monday): Huh:

President Trump said Monday he will move up the deadline for Russian President Vladimir Putin to stop his invasion of Ukraine from its original 50 days — one day after telling The Post’s Miranda Devine “there’s no reason to wait that long.”

Why was the deadline advanced? Is something ready earlier than expected? Tip to Instapundit. 

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.  

In case you missed it on Substack: Building a Russian Strategic Reserve

In case you missed it on Substack: America: Leader of the Mullah Protection League?

In case you missed it on Substack: The Pack of Dogs That Did Not Bark in the Night

In case you missed it on Substack: Pretending There are Tame Jihadis in Syria

The Air Force will get more KC-46 aerial refueling (and cargo, hence the 'C') planes to replace aging older model planes. 

American F-35As exercised in the Philippines for the first time.

Oh, FFS. How many more of these "oopsy" mistakes are there?

Joint U.S.-Japan disaster response is a soft introduction to joint combat operations. 

Iran hasn't given up trying to kill us with his Arab proxies despite recent setbacks. 

Corruption kills: "The oil-rich west coast African nation of Nigeria continues to have problems with Islamic terrorist groups Boko Haram and especially the local Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant/ISIL faction known as Islamic State West Africa Province/ISWAP." 

Iran was surprised by Israel's ability to hurt Iran's nuclear facilities, air defenses, missiles, and leadership. But the mullahs are on a Mission from God. 

The F-16 can carry six pods of cheap APKWS guided rockets to deal with drones. The Air Force is building the A-Whacks one fighter at a time.

Yes, it is long past time the "Martyr's Fund" that rewarded terrorism is ended. Insist on it. Verify it. Although I suspect ending a lot of USAID programs has a lot to do with any progress.

How much do China's official economic statistics exaggerate its GDP? "Growth figures have always been political rather than economic in China ..."

I suspect not nearly enough State Department employees were fired: "State is a bloated, corpulent, insular, risk-averse, academically inbred, stifling, overly bureaucratic, back-stabbing, stodgy, mid-20th century institution that lost its mojo after the Cold War ended[.]" 

The Russian-Iranian joint naval exercise is likely to be as reassuring to Iran as a U.S.-Canadian naval exercise on Lake Huron would be for Canada under threat.

I noted the assessment of the American strike on Iran that minimized the impact without dismissing it. Way outside my lane. But others say it's nonsense. 

Russia is learning anti-drone tactics from the Ukrainians.

Seeking updated combined arms solutions to use and exploit tank capabilities. 

Russia's Chechen troop contingent prefers to make Russians fight rather than fight in Ukraine. They and Dagestan civilians are resisting military service: "Russia needs more men, not another Caucasus rebellion. So far Russia is pushing its forceful efforts to get troops despite the rebellion threat." Interesting.

China is willing to arm Iran to be a source of oil a potential distraction for the West, but isn't willing to die for Iran. China sees them as vassals and vassals can make no demands on the master.

I don't know what to make of Japan's election results. But just as foreigners get nervous over American elections, I instinctively worry about change when the status quo seems to serve American interests well enough. But things will likely work out just fine. Or fine enough.

Going big in INDOPACOM: "According to the U.S. Pacific Air Forces, the Department-Level Exercise series involves about 400 aircraft and over 12,000 personnel across more than 50 locations spanning 3,000 miles."

The Poles should tell the Germans to enjoy their expensive and unreliable green energy. But that Poland chooses to drill and thrive. 

It is sad and tragic that Israel accidentally hit the last Christian church in Gaza. Say, I wonder why that became the last church? And I wonder about the wider Islamic world, too. Will there be outrage at? 

BOOM: "Bulgaria has initial clearance to buy a $620 million coastal protection system and related support from the U.S." Preparing for the Black Sea Turkey Shoot.

Neutral since after World War II, Austria will double its defense budget as it worries about Russia.

The U.S. will operate armed Reaper drones near China and North Korea. Yawn. Even the Houthi shoot them down. Still, a useful recon asset near China before a war starts. 

11th Airborne Division troops took off from Alaska and dropped in Australia. Well, as long as the Marines crippled their forcible entry capabilities ... . 

From B-17s to B-21s. Australia would like to buy some of the latter. 

Hopefully soon enough to matter: "Eventually Putin will have to pay attention to the increasingly dire state of the Russian economy. The Russian people are becoming more outspoken about the economic sacrifices they have been forced to endure so the Ukraine War can continue." 

Russia adapts to battlefield problems. In its own way. 

Is Putin intimidating oligarchs to fund the invasion of Ukraine? Or provoking resistance?  

Sh*t got real.

One experiment for stopping Russian drones: "an FPV armed with four 12-bore shotgun barrels." The prophecy continues. 

There must be consequences for actions seemingly going well beyond dirty tricks. Big if true, as the expression goes. I long held the collusion accusations were BS and didn't make sense. I won't assume the allegations of wrongdoing are as damning as they appear. 

Iraq was apparently key in getting the Kurdish PKK to disarm and end its fight against Turkey. Does this bode well for Iraqi resistance to Iranian influence? Possibly with Turkish help? 

Turkey designed a hypersonic missile that rivals Russia's Kinzhal. Faint praise, eh? I assume Ukraine gave Turkey access to wreckage of the missiles shot down in Ukraine.

France has an Indo-Pacific strategy. I'd rather they had an eastern Mediterranean and Red Sea strategy. Because their rationale boils down to being distinct from America. FFS. 

Well: "The Department of Homeland Security was affected by a broad intrusion into "on-premises" versions of Microsoft SharePoint, according to multiple people familiar with the matter."

It could take 3-8 years to replace the 14% of the Army's THAAD stockpile used to defend Israel from Iran in the 12-Day War. I noted this problem generally in the month before Russia invaded Ukraine. 

Overseas presence has not stopped: "Six Army units will deploy to Europe and the Middle East in the fall as part of regular unit rotations, the Army announced." They are two armored brigades, to combat aviation brigades, one artillery brigade, and one sustainment brigade. 

It's safer to display them to remind themselves of being the Big Bad than keeping them too close to Ukraine to fight: "Russian warplanes conducted a flight off the coast of Alaska on July 22, prompting an intercept from U.S. Air Force fighters assigned to [NORAD.]"

HAL, unleash the fire support: "The Army is pushing industry to develop capabilities that support  'decision dominance' on the battlefield, utilizing artificial intelligence tools to better make sense of data." I suggest the capability be called Hybrid Army Leadership. 

CCAR: "A slimmed-down, more nutrient-dense, individual field ration is now available for order for all troops." Army cargo pocket buttons rejoice.

Tapping the breaks on F-35 buys until upgrade issues resolved. 

Oh no: "For weeks, fires and explosions have been reported almost daily in Iran. Officials are investigating what they think is a coordinated campaign." Anyway. Iran says the war isn't over, so ... 

America to sell weapons to Ukraine, to "include $150 million for the supply, maintenance, repair and overhaul of U.S. armored vehicles, and $172 million for surface-to-air missile systems." I knew we'd find a way.

Remaining stationary too long is deadly for Ukraine's F-16s, too. 

Sh*t got real: "Following the latest clashes in Syria, the Syrian regime has officially requested support from Turkey." 

Protesters in Ukraine are worried anti-corruption legislation is really about supporting Zelensky. Ironically a couple EU Commission allies express worries, too. I don't know about the narrow issue. But it indicates that the war isn't the only concern now. Still, no idea how many Ukrainians oppose this.

The UN holds on to aid as false accusations of starvation in Gaza flow. Never forget that Gazans are human shields to attack Israel for more than Hamas. Tip to Instapundit.

Or ... and I'm spitballing here ... the UN could ef itself. Tip to Instapundit.

As a history and political science major who worked in the political/legislative world, Fascism Panic offends me: "Those celebrities and academics fleeing Trump’s ‘far right’ US betray a total ignorance of history." Historians hyping a fascism threat should be embarrassed. Via Instapundit. 

Tehran may not be livable without water. Perhaps investing in nuclear weapons instead of desalinization--or even towing an iceberg to Iran's coast--would have been a better idea the last few decades. 

Cause, meet effect: "Russia accused German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on Thursday of pursuing a path of 'militarisation' and said this was a cause for concern." I don't want to hear another damn word about Putin's chess-playing brilliance. 

Thailand is an ally of America. Cambodia is cozy with China: "On Thursday, simmering tensions between Thailand and Cambodia exploded into a deadly battle at the border." 

Sustaining America willingness to supply weapons to Ukraine by having Europeans buy them is vital. And it helps the West and America in the long run. 

I will say that Ukraine's corruption-related moves do worry me. But I won't jump to harsh conclusions, as the Russians are eager to do.

A Russian soldier now a POW: "Our commanders saw us as expendable. They didn’t care whether or not we survived." That attitude is only significant if it is widespread in Russian ground forces.

For the first time, China and Vietnam will hold a joint army exercise. To be fair, China has a land border with Vietnam. But there are learning opportunities that keep America out of the firing line.

Iran appears to have fabricated a confrontation with the Navy--that Iran naturally won.

Basically an Army microwave shotgun to knock down drone swarms.

Integrated sensors and missiles will reduce the number of Patriots needed to shoot down incoming missiles. 

Further assessments of the status of Iran's nuclear weapons program indicates severe damage taking years to restore. Tip to Instapundit.

Mullahs can still slaughter Iranians: "The June Israeli airstrikes [and] American B2 bomber strikes that destroyed their nuclear weapons program, have left Iranian weapons manufacturing devastated. The Iranian economy has, over the last thirteen years, seen a GDP decline of nearly 50 percent." 

Having the best Air Force in the world doesn't mean the air space over the Army is protected from aerial attack: "The US Army is planning to add up to four new Patriot battalions, with one of them assigned to support the Guam unit in the Western Pacific." 

Power mad: "With its latest budget, the EU Commission shows off its creeping super-state agenda. If this budget is passed, only a full-fledged tax system remains to complete the project." The project is to strip away the prefix of their proto-imperial EU state. The EU must die. Don't say we weren't warned.

Sectarian strife is "jeopardizing" forging a new national identity? Really? You give the "tame" jihadi rulers that much credit?  I think destroying minorities is the national Sunni Islamist identity. 

Hamas could end the war at any time by surrendering: "Hamas has been interfering with Israeli and foreign efforts to bring food to the starving Gazans." Will hungry Gazans kill Hamas? Foreign supporters of Hamas find Gazan hunger a useful club to hit Israel.

Russian troops in Ukraine can't be suppressed: "This visibility for what Russian soldiers face in Ukraine will, more than anything else, force the Russian government to consider ending its war effort." Or maybe the cogs will remember they are people. 

You can never check out of Hotel CCP. How Western countries--including America--let this continue is beyond me.

Is civil war coming to the West? Maybe in Europe. Natives might resist Islamic invaders who refuse to assimilate. The question is whether governments that brought in the invaders will side with the invaders or natives. In America? No. I remember the 1970s here. We have a social media civil war. Yawn.

What is France's major malfunction? "A French leader is appeasing fascists again. This time it’s Emmanuel Macron and the beneficiary of his pusillanimity is Hamas." Hamas finally gets its reward for killing, raping, and capturing Jews; and using Palestinians as human shields. Yet burning cars won't stop.

So how bad will the Thailand-Cambodia clashes get? 

Commies are for crushing--not rescuing: "In a complete rebuke of Biden-era appeasement, President Trump slammed the brakes on America’s thaw with Cuba, signing a presidential memorandum to isolate the island’s communist regime once again." What about Venezuela? 

GPS jamming.  

To be fair, Britain isn't sure it can control the North Sea and Channel: "Britain is about to withdraw its last frigate from the Middle East, leaving the region without a major Royal Navy warship for the first time in 45 years and possibly since the mid-19th century."

China bizarrely claims to be a "near-Arctic" state that requires their voice in the region: "A China-flagged research vessel was detected Friday off the coast of Alaska, the U.S. Coast Guard said." 

Ukrainian drones ruined Russia's Navy Day fleet parade in St. Petersburg. 

Brits to Yanks: "We don't need a written Constitution like you chaps." Wait. What? Tip to Instapundit.

Bizarrely, the sainted international community is too busy trying to save the murdering bastards of Hamas to spare much attention to the death and suffering in Sudan. 

Protests forced Ukraine's government to reverse course on anti-corruption plans viewed as weakening the fight. 

Rewarding the Tip of the Spear

The Army doesn't reward combat officers with promotions despite the risks and harder work required to excel. That doesn't seem like the way to prepare for the Era of Great Power Competition.

Is giving preference to Army combat arms officers for promotion the way to encourage a "warrior ethos"? 

The Army has embraced equal promotion opportunities for all for decades.  Proponents of the many non-combat arms communities will protest loudly.  Still, success on the battlefield must drive Army priorities.  Those who run the greatest risks and responsibilities and experience the most severe demands deserve to be rewarded accordingly.  It’s that simple. 

Well, all branches need senior officers. But the author makes some good suggestions. And while the rest of the Army is vital to keeping the tip of the spear sharp, the point of the Army is the spear.Is there a way to separate pay grades from rank to some degree? 

And to quibble, I want a "soldier ethos" and not a "warrior" ethos. I am absolutely sure the author knows this far better than I do. But I worry that over time the distinction between the warrior marketing and the soldier requirement will be lost.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: I made the image with Bing. It seemed to have a problem with understanding "officer." And "promotion." First World Problem, I know.

Britain Bends the Knee to the Cheese Throne

America had to fight off Britain in the War of 1812 to drive home the point that the Revolution was serious about asserting America's freedom. Britain split from the proto-imperial European Union in 2016. Did Britain just surrender to the EU in its own War of 1812?

"Starmer’s ‘Brexit reset’ is even worse than you thought": 

The EU side certainly had a lot to smile about. For Starmer and the UK government had, in the early hours of the morning just ahead of the summit, ceded significant chunks of the UK’s sovereignty, agreeing to accept EU rules over vast swathes of the British economy. ...

Under Starmer’s new deal, post-Brexit Britain is set to become a rule-taker in several critical areas: fishing, food, defence, energy and more. It also invites the European Court of Justice (ECJ), a ruthless enforcer of Brussels’ interests, to meddle further in British affairs, to ensure compliance with the new rules Starmer has signed us up to. The concessions are painful and immediate, while the gains are elusive and, in many cases, largely theoretical. 

Score a win for 10,000 cheese regulations. Did Britain just lose its fight to be independent? 

Oh. Et tEU, Britain? Sure looks like it. The EU wasted no time on Britain's defense subordination. NATO is supposed to be the defense body for Europe--not the always-plotting EU.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: I made the image with Bing and I admit it worked as well as I hoped it would. Also, somehow this languished as a draft for about a month without me noticing.

Europe is Very Much Interested in America

Are Americans losing interest in Europe's fate? Perhaps Americans have little interest in Europe now. But have no doubt that Europe is very much interested in America, at least according to the historical record.

Is it true that politically divided Americans are united in not caring about Europe?

If Europe whole, free and at peace was a priority for generations of US policymakers, it no longer is one – and it may never be again. 

That attitude pre-dates the NATO summit where NATO agreed to significantly higher defense and security spending while Trump endorsed Article V defense guarantees--which are less automatic than you think. 

Americans haven't faced a threat from across the Atlantic since the Berlin Well fell all the way through Moscow and disintegrated the USSR. But threats from across the Atlantic have been a New World defense problem since Columbus discovered our hemisphere:

The homeland is not secure if an enemy can use the Atlantic as a highway to strike us. That’s the foundation of why we waged war in Europe during World War I, World War II, and the Cold War. 

As an aside, if "America’s ill-fated wars in Iraq and Afghanistan" play a role in a desire to walk away from Europe, perhaps an understanding that we chose to lose Afghanistan and that we won Iraq would change some minds conditioned by fairy tales of ill-fated defeats.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: I made the image with Bing with an interesting work-around to a problem with the site at the beginning of the month. The next day Bing fixed the problem. But it was neat as a history major to figure out how to bypass the glitch.

Extending the Reach of the P-8A

The P-8A will be able to strike submarines from high altitude. Could the plane be equipped with ASROC-like weapons to strike surface ships with torpedoes from long range fired from high altitude, too? 

 America is upgrading the P-8: 

The US Department of Defense has awarded Boeing a $61.2 million contract for additional High Altitude Anti-Submarine Warfare Weapon Capability (HAAWC) systems to enhance the long-range strike capabilities of the Navy’s P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft. ...

HAAWC allows the P-8A to launch Mk 54 anti-submarine torpedoes from high altitude, eliminating the need for low-level deployment manoeuvres that increase airframe stress and fuel consumption.

Could the P-8A be a full-service maritime patrol aircraft with ASuROC to launch anti-ship torpedoes from high altitude and long range? 

Couldn't we use the Tomahawk with an anti-ship homing torpedo instead of a warhead, which is released near the target ship but before the anti-ship missile can be used?

That bypasses missile defenses, no? And anti-torpedo systems just haven't seemed to work out.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: P-8A image from the U.S. Navy.

Building a New Army Division

The Army faces the task of designing a new division to wield the weapons being rushed into service.

This author reviews past Army division reorganization efforts:

The Army conducted nine major reorganization efforts during the Cold War: the reorganization of triangular divisions, 1947–1948; the pentomic division, 1955–1963; the Reorganization Objective Army Division (ROAD), 1960–1963; the 11th Air Assault Division (Test), 1963–1965; the 1st Cavalry Division triple capability, 1971–1974; the Division Restructuring Study (DRS), 1975–1979; Division 86, 1978–1980; the high-technology motorized division, 1980–1988; and the 7th Infantry Division (Light) 1983–1986. The four most significant of these offer particularly relevant lessons to the Army of today: the triangular division, the pentomic division, ROAD, and Division 86, which led to the Army of Excellence light division. 

It helps to know who you will fight and where. Without that, design is much more difficult. The bottom line?

Ultimately, the better the Army balances span of control, combat power, and mobility in its force design, within the never-static cycle of national security policy and amid personnel and budget constraints, the more likely it is to achieve operational success on the battlefields of tomorrow. 

The division is back after the long brigade-centric Army counter-insurgency campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan. I think span of control is under-appreciated. The vaunted Russian battalion tactical group (BTG) suffered from that problem despite the fawning worship of all their combat power compared to American units. Can AI help commanders cope with more capabilities at lower levels?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

The Winter War of 2022 Finds Out the Alternative to An Offer You Can't Refuse

Trump was patient with Putin and I believe attempted to ease his worries by being openly hostile to Zelensky. Putin has refused to accept a deal to end the war short of complete victory. And now he will find out what happens when you reject an offer you can't refuse.

Russia appears to be preparing for another Big Push. 

In the face of Putin's escalating war on Ukraine and refusal to seriously talk peace, Trump had been edging away from diplomacy to arming Ukraine to do what it can to defeat Russia. His announcement with NATO's Rutte last week was a turning point:

President Trump threatened Monday to increase economic pressure on Moscow if there is no peace deal with Ukraine in 50 days, underscoring his growing anger with Russian President Vladimir Putin as he outlined a deal to send weapons to Ukraine. ...

“We’ve made a deal today where we are going to be sending them weapons and they’re going to be paying for them,” Trump said, sitting next to NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte in the Oval Office. “We’re not buying it, but we will manufacture it, and they’re going to be paying for it.” 

Putin might have accepted such a deal at the end of 2022. But heavy losses since then may require Putin to demand more territory and better terms to justify those losses. And the second best option is continuing to fight so that the failure to gain enough to justify the losses is not ratified--which could be fatal to Putin's rule if not life. So a new deadline likely won't lead to a carrot-filled deal. But it will justify an American pivot to compelling Russia to end the war with sticks.

But we'll see if Putin gets the entire 50 days for anything but the added economic pressure. 

Despite all the panic about America abandoning Ukraine in 2025, I was not one of them despite wanting to defeat the Russians. As I wrote after the 2024 American election:

I firmly believe "ending" the Winter War of 2022 should not mean that Ukraine loses the war. The problem is whether preventing Ukraine from losing now with a deal actually secures Ukraine or simply provides a decent interval before Russia resumes the war in a better military position than Ukraine.

Basically, does Trump let Putin get away with pretending the war is ended without any withdrawal; or does Trump react by arming Ukraine to the teeth?

The former risks Russia resuming the war sooner rather than later, possibly against a Ukraine demoralized by the losses it suffered without reclaiming any land it has lost since 2014.

And if the latter, how is the aid structured to be transactional and beneficial to America as well as to Ukraine? By using frozen Russian assets in the West? By deals that are paid with loans (and let future leaders decide if and how the loans are repaid)? By deals paid for by Europeans unable to increase their own defense industry to replace some of our weapons and munitions? By getting percentages of economic assets or strategic materials inside Ukraine as payment for arms that Ukraine says it must have to win?

Face it, a lot of ways exist for arms to flow to Ukraine without it being "aid" on our financial ledger. Including a peace deal that "sells" Crimea to Russia--plus back rent--and uses frozen Russian assets to pay Ukraine a high price for the lost territory that Ukraine can use to rebuild Ukraine. 

Putin was unwilling to pretend a ceasefire-to reload was peace. Too many of his more militant and vocal supporters would have been too blind to see that reality. Which would have given Putin's rivals potential justification for taking action against Putin. So Putin has painted himself into a corner. Will Trump offer a way out to get peace sooner? Will Putin refuse to be rescued and compel Trump to pursue peace through Ukrainian victory?

We'll see what Ukraine can do if it gets an American license to kill. I have thoughts, to be sure. 

UPDATE (Monday): Related thoughts. 

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.  

In case you missed it on Substack: New Means for an Old Threat

In case you missed it on Substack: Apples, Oranges, and Mythical Damage Resilience

In case you missed it on Substack: The Nexus of Evil

In case you missed it on Substack: Arrogance 2.0

Up: "The U.S. Space Force is currently carrying out its largest exercise since being established, with a service-specific operation meant to see how it can handle complex conflicts in space." It isn't "complex" until SMOD is integrated. 

A British drone killed a jihadi leader in northwest Syria. Nice that their war on Islamist terrorists is still overseas.

Good: "Australia, Japan and the United States today signed an agreement to further enhance logistics interoperability among their maritime forces[.]" 

U.S. Pacific Fleet commander: "China has failed to intimidate rival claimant states into surrendering their sovereign interests in the disputed South China Sea despite its intensifying “bullying tactics[.]” 

The Navy received the last ship of the SINKEX class to be built. 

Iran's "token" missile attack on the American base in Qatar inflicted some damage on a secure communications system. Seems like a point of vulnerability we should address if an attack we expected did some damage.

Sure he has an option: "Russian leader Vladimir Putin remains defiant but he has few options when his troops run out of ammunition and replacement armored vehicles." His option is to accept land front lulls until his troops build up weapons, ammunition, and troops to launch a Big Push.  

BOOM: "China recently tested a 2 kg thermobaric explosive device. This weapon created a 1,000 degree Celsius fireball that lasted two seconds." 

Greece and Italy: "Don’t focus so much on Ukraine that you miss the severe threats to European security brewing in Libya." Sure, Russia is attacking Europe with migrants. And Turkey is a problem. But securing their southern border only requires the EU to keep the migrants out. See America's southern border. 

Sh*t got real: "A Philippine Coast Guard cutter intercepted a Chinese Navy spy ship within Manila’s western exclusive economic zone over the weekend." A PLAN warship escorted the spy ship. 

Interesting. But what kind of range and payload can a mosquito-sized drone possess?  Tip to Instapundit.

From the "Well, Duh" files: "[Pro-Iran 'widespread outcry'] was stoked by three radical organizations deeply connected to foreign regimes: the National Iranian-American Council or NIAC, the ANSWER Coalition, and — in the case of the protest in Washington, D.C. — the Manassas Mosque." 

I don't worry that the Aspen Institute doesn't reflect military values. But as long as the officers and officials sent to speak there embody military values, why not let DOD people speak there? Preaching to the choir is more fun but less useful.

Sh*t got real: "Casualty evacuation, frequently referred to as CASEVAC, is one of the most physically and mentally grueling tasks faced by military personnel." In the Guard, I was loaned for an Army Reserve medical unit's exercise with a local hospital. To this day I've never ridden inside a helicopter. 

Resistance is not futile: "The U.S. plans to fund and build a facility capable of hosting watercraft and assault boats on the western coast of Palawan in support of Manila’s operations into the disputed waters of the South China Sea, according to new documents." China wages a subliminal war there.

A bridge from Sicily to the "boot" may count toward NATO defense because: "Of the 5% percent of GDP target, NATO members agreed that 3.5% should be true defense spending while the remaining 1.5% could be made up of strategic infrastructure programs to strengthen national economies." See also Germany.

A whole lot as gone wrong if Taiwanese troops need to use the Taipei subways to maneuver. But that's the way to think about their problem.

A Mission from God: "Al-Shabab insurgents have seized the town of Tardo in Somalia's central Hiiran region, according to a military official." 

Clearly an Iranian OSHA violation.

Baby steps: "India recently ordered 26 French Rafale jets to use on their two aircraft carriers." Take your time. No rush.

The enemy of my enemy. Embracing Iranian nutballs is a dangerous security strategy to deal with Azerbaijan. 

Some supporters of Ukraine complain Trump's eventual decision to arm Ukraine took too long and harms Ukraine. I don't see that. Trump allowed arms approved by Biden right before leaving office to keep flowing to Ukraine. As far as I can see, Trump has not interrupted arms. Nor has he stopped intelligence. 

Defense of Japan 2025: "The paper pointed to Russia, China and North Korea as primary regional security threats."

The 25th Infantry Division is trading volume of fires to have longer range and precision. Hmmm.

Interesting: "Ukraine’s fleet of unmanned surface vessels is expanding with the emergence of a new, smaller type dedicated to riverine warfare for countering Russian presence in key waterways." Controlling a river might be useful.  

I've said a number of times that American military aid to Ukraine quietly flowed in 2025 under Trump. That is the case. Is it a coincidence that just as previously ordered aid is dwindling, Trump has resumed it in another form? Trump tried to use the aid inertia to convince Putin to trust us. Putin would not.

As Putin destroyed Russia's ground forces, weakened the air force, and abandoned the navy, his ability to defend Russia has been reduced to his winning personality and threatening nuclear war. Well at least there are nukes. Oh. 

Turkey's regional power push. It's a big region that is targeted. But what "power vacuum" is the author talking about? Has he not noticed American diplomatic and military actions?

If the EU agrees to higher tariffs with America than Britain negotiated, "it will be hard to argue that European unity has been a source of strength." Fascinating. The issue isn't economic but EU authority? Yes. Power to address a problem is always more important to the EU than solving the problem.

Interesting that Russia has alienated Armenia and Azerbaijan.  

Certainly suspicious. 

Israel also struck Damascus targets: "As of Wednesday afternoon, the IDF had undertaken 160 aerial attacks on Syrian regime forces in and around the vicinity of Sweida in southern Syria, where Israel says the regime's forces are slaughtering Syrian-Druze."

Commander of U.S. Army Europe and Africa: "'So if we look out for an air defense system or a long-range fires system, we want it to be one system, optionally manned,' Donahue said. 'We want to be able to take munitions from any country and shoot through that.”'"

Huh: "The German government this week notified Pentagon leaders of an interest to buy the U.S. Army’s Typhon missile launcher system, which can fire missiles with a range of 2,000 kilometers[.]" 

NATO's first regional defense plan, the Eastern Flank Deterrence Line, is for the priority Baltic states front. The article highlights taking down Kaliningrad and its A2/AD assets. Heartily endorsed.

The socialist bureaucrats prefer to skim money: "In 2014 India elected a new reform-minded government that was obsessed with making India less dependent on imported military technology. Increased efforts to develop domestic weapons development and production capability consistently failed."  

Maybe America can't impose democracy by gunpoint--not even Patton's Third Army. Well, it had a good run. Via Instapundit.

Eritrea seems to be undermining Ethiopia. No mention of any Egyptian involvement. Pomeranian grenadiers were unavailable for comment.

People are wrong to say Trump admires Putin. What I see is someone who wants to reduce tensions with a country whose only ample resources are nukes, paranoia, and a willingness to suffer enormous casualties. We're saying "good doggie" while reaching for a stick. But I worry we might give away too much. 

This is way out of my lane: "European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde declared that 'the dominant role of the US dollar… is no longer certain' and that it was time to launch the euro as a truly global currency." But I suspect this is EU wishcasting and not forecasting.

The U.S. is trying to spur shipbuilding competition to China. Tip to Instapundit.

 PANAMAX-Alpha Phase I.

The U.S. strike on Iran's nuke facilities only destroyed Fordow. CENTCOM wanted a several-week campaign. Well.

Not yet ... : "Ursula von der Leyen is, in effect, the uncrowned queen of the European Union. ... More than any other political figure, von der Leyen personifies the EU’s imperial ambitions and authoritarian instincts." The proto-empire has a proto-empress. Who knows who takes the crown?

Power: "In February, South Korea’s navy took a significant step, inaugurating a task fleet command at its Jeju naval base." It's been a long South Korean march to the seas.

Singapore special forces and a US Air Force RC-135W Rivet Joint debuted at Talisman Sabre exercises hosted by Australia. 

Fortunately, Switzerland is surrounded by NATO: "U.S. officials have told the Swiss government that Patriot air defense systems in the production pipeline for the alpine country would be diverted to help defend Ukraine[.]"

Bored Army National Guard and Marine troops in Los Angeles aren't bored because they weren't needed. They are bored because their presence worked. A lot were already released.

The Navy's next new warship--now with energy weapons!--is always outstanding in the planning phase. Then the F**k-Up Fairy gets to work.

Shooting down drones with a tank's main cannon? Well, Beehive rounds were used to counter the first generation Sagger anti-tank missiles (by throwing off the shooter's aim) that had to be flown into the target. Maybe a shell with a proximity fuse. It's a start.

I for one would like to punish the government officials who did Putin's dirty work to further divide Americans. Tip to Instapundit. 

And railroads: "A frequent target of Ukrainian attacks are bridges vital to the Russian movement of troops and supplies." Get back to me when the Ukrainians drop the Kerch Strait bridge. 

And this isn't an act of war ... how? Tip to Instapundit.

This validates the less-than-decisive results of our one-off raid on Iran: "President Trump, while preferring a diplomatic solution, did not object to Israel’s readiness to launch further strikes." 

Mark 48 heavy torpedo in a box. It would fit on small USVs and small warships. Come on! Take the next step and build ASuROC!

Maybe--I'm just spitballing here--admirals deserve to be fired given the Navy shipbuilding record: "This would remove experts intimately involved in designing, developing and acquiring new ships and submarines at a time when all of the service’s shipbuilding programs are facing significant delays."

True: "US warships fighting around the Middle East have been leaning hard on its best ballistic missile interceptors. That won't be sustainable in high-tempo combat operations that can fast consume key munitions, a top Navy admiral cautioned." Cheap incoming drones can be defeated by precise mass. 

It would be nice if China's military purges mean the PLA is less ready for war. Unless purging those officers got rid of obstacles to getting ready for war. And as the author notes, not being ready is no obstacle to going to war.

What power does Europe have? The problem is that Europe has the demographic, scientific, and economic potential to build a lot of military power under rulers so inclined. So Europe is an objective to prevent it from being a threat. We'd like it as an ally. But we cannot have it as an enemy.

Good: "Cuba is experiencing a national catastrophe, and the Cuban people are growing increasingly desperate." But the "international community" is more likely to try to save the regime. Stand back and let it die. 

It's a darn shame "cheese-eating surrender monkeys" went out of style. 

New Italian 120mm L55 tank gun. Does this have enough velocity to reduce the pressure to go to 130mm or 140mm? 

Preventing China from getting a technology edge relies less on obstructing their research than on keeping them from stealing our research. 

India came out the loser in the air battle as China's J-10 fighter (thanks Israel--were we dumb enough to approve that?) in Pakistani hands worked and Russia's S-400 in India's hands did not. No hurry, India. Take your time. 

Putin gave anxious Russians an adequately comfortable oasis of submissive stability along with the facade of Russian power that holds the West at bay to maintain that. The war with Ukraine risks the foundation of that stability. Did Russian misplaced faith that Trump would save them risk demoralizing Russians?

Interesting: "Israel and Syria have agreed to a ceasefire, the U.S. envoy to Turkey said on Friday, after days of bloodshed in the predominantly Druze area that has killed over 300 people." Israel has too many loyal Druze to do nothing yet is busy dealing with Iran (and Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthi).

If the Sunni Islamist government of Syria isn't slaughtering minorities as policy, it is at least unwilling to risk jihadi anger by restraining the murderers. 

Taiwan's military exercises to counter a Chinese invasion are much more realistic these days. But Taiwanese people don't really expect that to happen. The shock of an invasion could shatter their will, I fear. 

Preparing with wargames for an enemy that votes on the outcome of battle. 

Hope and Regime Change: the insurrection from within. That was neither democracy, rule of law, nor peaceful transfer of power. No Kings, indeed. Tip to Instapundit.

Has Putin Been Hit With Neptune's Clue Bat?

A grueling land war with Ukraine may have finally sunk Russia's last carrier. But maybe if Ukraine struck Kuznetsov with a couple long-range drones and did a victory dance over the success, Putin would reflexively pour money into the hulk. 

Noooooooooooooo!!!!!!!

A report in the pro-Kremlin media suggests that the troubled effort to return the Russian Navy’s sole aircraft carrier, Admiral Kuznetsov, to operational service will be terminated. Overhaul and modernization work on the Cold War-era flattop began almost eight years ago but has apparently been abandoned some time ago. 

I've been thrilled with Russia's refusal to grapple with naval reality by rejecting the gift from God who tried to lift the burden of that wreck with a flight deck up on cement blocks called Kuznestsov:

Will Russia waste even more money to fix this smoking tenement with a flight deck despite God reaching out his hand against that POS white elephant?

God, I hope so! Fixing that ship is such a waste of resources that I can't believe Russians bother with the ship. 

But truth be told, the ship was put on a death watch a while ago. The carrier lost its planes to the land war. And then its sailors.

But as long as the hull sits there I dare to have hope. Save that symbol of past Soviet greatness! Hell, build bigger ones and build more! Putin deserves them to lead Russia back to a globally feared navy! 

And he'd look fabulous standing next to one! Putin, let the fleet flow through you! 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: Photo from the article.

The MDTF Finds Its True Home

The Army seems to believe the gods of jointness help those who help themselves. 

This makes sense: 

The 56th Artillery Command and 2nd Multi-Domain Task Force, both under U.S. Army Europe and Africa, are being combined, Gen. Christopher Donahue said Wednesday.

Artillery is good. MDTFs seem like Navy-friendly units to leverage funding for long range ground fire if the Air Force is too busy to support the Army in combat. I concede coastal defense artillery has a long history in the Army. But this from the article shows how long-range ground fires can hit the Russians before the Air Force is ready to intervene:

For U.S. and NATO ground forces, the heart of deterrence efforts centers around the Baltics, he said. Donahue said allies face “arguably the best A2-AD bubble in the world” there, referring to Russian anti-access and area denial capabilities in its exclave of Kaliningrad. 

Indeed. Long-range Army fires will be able to hit the air defenses and anti-ship missiles in Kaliningrad to help the other services dogpile on the isolated but dangerous Russians. And yeah, the Baltic region is NATO's main front.

Meanwhile in the Pacific, the Army will establish Multi-Domain Commands under a major general to control Multi-Domain Task Forces in INDOPACOM. Two other commands--in Europe and a reserve--will follow.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: Photograph from the article.

The Stealth Fleet Gets a Marketing Slogan

A Navy-Marine operating concept seems more like a hedge against Force Design changes rather than something emerging from that radical force change. Here come the [turning down the light and squinting] light carriers!

Marines supported by air power for island hopping in the Pacific:

As the U.S. military prepares for the possibility of a conflict in the Pacific, the Navy and Marine Corps are working on a new way to project airpower, and they’re calling it the Lightning Carrier.

The concept, which the Corps began testing in 2016, turns amphibious assault ships, like the Navy’s America-class USS America, which is both easy to remember and ultra patriotic in a “Team America” kind of way, into small, agile flat-top carriers bristling with F-35B Lightning II aircraft and about 1,800 Marines. With the F-35B vertical take-off and landing capability, they can fit up to 20 on the deck that can support Marines as they secure or defend remote outposts through the Pacific.

I discussed this new light carrier usage for the new America-class amphibious warfare ship in 2014, but cautioned that the ship is not optimized to be an aircraft carrier.

Notwithstanding the initial article, this concept seemingly predates Force Design. I discussed the uses for still-unnamed ship back in 2007. But I concede the "Lightning Carrier" terminology could be new and improved. Or refinements, of course.

Say, is this concept an admission that moving Marines around in Barges With Pretensions is a suicide mission?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: Navy photo from the article. 

The Close Air Support Mission Will Die With the A-10

The A-10 has hung on despite longstanding Air Force efforts to rid itself of that troublesome and unwanted close air support plane. It's final days are in sight. 

The Air Force has been trying to kill the A-10 since it first rolled off the production line. The A-10 may be gone by 2027:

The US Air Force (USAF) hopes to dramatically accelerate retirements of its Fairchild Republic A-10 attack fighters, with fiscal year 2026 budget plans calling for the entire fleet to be phased out by 2027. 

Let's hope the plane lingers on in the Bone Yard in case it is needed when the high-tech stuff runs out in a large-scale conventional war.  

The Air Force was eventually going to be right about the value of the aging plane. But the issue was always trust about the mission. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to.