War on Terror 2.0?

There have been calls for some time to revoke authorizations to use force against Iraq. Something must allow America to "mow the grass" to keep the jihadi threat down--and far away.

Interesting:

Once again, lawmakers are trying to claw back their responsibility under the Constitution to declare war. On Wednesday, the House passed legislation that would repeal two authorizations for use of military force from 1991 and 2002 passed prior to the Persian Gulf and Iraq wars.

I'm fine with that. As long as we retain the ability to fight the threat to Iraq from Iran. 

Further, the broader low-level war against jihadis still has authorization because (back to the first article):

shortly after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, Congress gave the president sweeping authority to prevent future acts of terrorism. President Obama later used that authorization as the legal justification for airstrikes against ISIS in Syria, Libya, and elsewhere. 

And I wouldn't mind updating that to clearly put the evolved eco-system of jihadi terrorists within the law. And perhaps narco-gangs, too, given the death toll they inflict without epic-scale attacks.

The low-level domestic terrorism (that does not match the 1970s violence) America is enduring now is of course a law enforcement problem. Tip to Instapundit.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: Photo from USA Today.

Defend the Capital Ships

Cheap suicide drones are a new problem. Work the problem. 

Extending air defenses: 

Future air defense for naval vessels and combat armor may include a defensive escort of uncrewed vehicles equipped with electronic warfare measures or drone-killing cannons, according to the technology director at BAE Systems, Europe’s largest defense company. ...

 ... One solution may be uncrewed vessels or vehicles equipped with electronic warfare capabilities or 40-millimeter cannons with airburst shells, operating at distance from a frigate or tank to tackle threats before they get too close, according to Merryweather.

Can the single-purpose escorts--ground or sea--keep up with the primary assets in speed or endurance? And if it can keep up, is it approaching the size and cost to justify being protected itself?

I had suggestions for air and surface ship escorts through choke points. Although large air defense frigates would be needed for escorting fast Navy ships. Which are costly, too.

And I've mentioned the ship auto-cannon angle. 

Yet for combat armor, I suspect an upgraded active protection system for point defense would be best within an area defense of other weapons and electronic warfare systems. And fighter drones, of course.

For a general overview of industry air defense offerings, this Cracking Defence article is helpful. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: Unattributed photo from a random Reddit page.

The Winter War of 2022 Ponders a Sicilian Expedition

Should NATO be afraid that Russia will attack it to punish NATO for aiding Ukraine, which Russia is still trying to conquer? History says rational rulers should refrain from doing that.

The war goes on. Ukraine is seemingly more successful in some local counter-attacks even as Russia continues its grinding offensive. It seems like the war is preparing to get ... different. With an interesting and unexpectedly different angle brought up:

US President Donald Trump expressed confidence in Ukraine’s ability to fully liberate all of its internationally recognized territory that Russia currently occupies, following a bilateral meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA).

Huh:

The Kremlin said Wednesday it would press on with its military offensive in Ukraine and rejected US President Donald Trump's claim that Kyiv's army could retake territory it had seized.

Moscow also pushed back on Trump's characterisation of Russia as a "paper tiger", a day after the US president dismissed Russia's army and said he could see Ukraine winning back every inch of land captured by Russia's forces. 

Is Trump--with Zelensky's approval--baiting a weakened Russia into launching an offensive Ukraine is ready to resist? 

Further, Russia tried to brush back NATO from the plate with a wave of drones crossing into Poland in what Russia said was either accidental or the fault of Ukrainian electronic counter-measures:

The Russian probe has put NATO on alert. War may not be imminent, but Russia has attacked a NATO country. The Kremlin claims it was an accident. The Kremlin wants to bait, probe, act invincible and claim NATO is a paper tiger. But words and attitude don't erase obvious mistake: Russia has attacked a NATO country. One U.S. congressman has already said Ukraine must have long-range weapons to strike at Russian drone and missile systems -- and the attack on Poland proves Ukraine must have that capability. 

Even aside from NATO's calculation that Russia lightly attacked NATO, this seems deliberate. My impression is that most (possibly none) of the drones had warheads. That, the history of Russian threats to escalate, and the scale of the specific incursion suggests this was deliberate. 

Adding to the general worry is Russia's creation of a reserve army using new recruits excess to its casualty replacement needs:

The reported decision to create a strategic reserve and not deploy all new recruits to the frontline indicates that Putin and the Russian military command are content with the current rate of advance, even though Russian forces continue to only advance at a foot pace. The reported creation of a strategic reserve suggests that Russia plans to escalate offensive operations in Ukraine in the near-to-medium term rather than end the war. Russia may also be building out its strategic reserve as part of wider Kremlin preparations for a possible Russia-NATO conflict in the future, particularly as Russia intensifies its youth military-patriotic programs that aim to recruit Russian youth into the military in the years to come. [emphasis in original]

Should NATO worry Russia will pounce on still-vulnerable eastern NATO states? Especially the small Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania? 

I don't know if the reserve is for launching a Big Push to win the Winter War of 2022 or for attacking NATO in the belief that NATO is the source of Russia's problems. Indeed, I wonder if that reserve is for deterring China. If Russia truly is content with the current pace of their offensive, Russia doesn't need to mount a Big Push or expand the war to NATO.

But let's leave out the China option for now and ponder expansion of the war to NATO.

America didn't expand the Korean War to include either the USSR that aided North Korea or Communist China which actually sent a large army that it denied was China's--the People's Volunteer Army--the largest "little green men" invasion in history.

America didn't expand the Vietnam War to include key backers and covert participants the USSR and China.

And the USSR didn't expand their  Afghanistan War by attacking America because America supported the resistance.

More recently, America didn't expand the Iraq or Afghanistan campaigns by attacking Iran or Syria over their intervention in the former or attack Pakistan over the latter (Pakistan was both vital for waging war there and an obstacle to winning by effectively hosting the Taliban).

The Sicilian Expedition by Athens (leading the Delian League) that turned the trading partners of its enemy Sparta that indirectly helped Sparta's war effort into active belligerents against Athens in the war was a strong lesson. Athens couldn't beat Sparta alone, dispatched a large force to Sicily to end that support, and lost their army and navy expedition for their trouble.

So I strongly suspect that Putin now understands that his military is not up to taking on NATO even if the Winter War of 2022 suddenly ended and freed up the Russian military. He must certainly know that taking on an expanded and rearming NATO while he still wages war on Ukraine would be folly.

But he can hope demonstrations below the level of open attack eventually frighten NATO states into halting, limiting, or reducing military support for Ukraine. Or maybe the test was directed at the United States alone.

Or Putin could learn from ancient Athens that as foolish as the decision to launch the Sicilian Expedition was, it actually could have worked if the commanders had been more aggressive to take advantage of their initial advantage. But surely Putin doesn't have that much confidence in his military and senior military leadership, does he? Will he be grilling his leadership about whether Trump is right?

Interesting times.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. 

NOTE: Map from http://navalhistorypodcast.com/. 

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section. 

In case you missed it on Substack: Getting There First ... and Then What?

In case you missed it on Substack: Killing Carriers is Fun and Easy

In case you missed it on Substack: The Real Key to Battlefield Transformation is Information

In case you missed it on Substack: Evolve the Way Tanks Operate

Oh please, of course it will be.

The Army will cut 6,500 aviation jobs reflecting a change from helicopters to drones. How many jobs will be added?

American and Iraqi forces killed an ISIL commander in Syria. Keeping Iraq as an ally to fight jihadis is a reason to remain in Iraq.

The U.S. intends to sell $6 billion in arms to Israel. 

Drone counter-measures: "Drones, EW, and patient reconnaissance permit the finding of weaknesses that make [drone] operators 'visible.' Meanwhile, protecting operators relies on digging, masking, EW, and quick communication." 

A U.S.-Portugal drill experiments with aerial, surface, and underwater drones for ASW warfare. This included a U.S. submarine launching an aerial drone while submerged.

Israel isn't seeking "revenge"--Israel is seeking victory.

Will Italy's better budget situation compared to France's bring Italy added weight in NATO? 

Maneuvering through the Caucasus corridor to and from Central Asia. 

CRS report to Congress on the DDG(X) program.

A "good enough now" policy will save the Army money and stop the urge to swing for the fence on every new weapons system pitch. 

I'd rather have a comparison of a likely Marine alternative to the Force Design Marine Littoral Regiment rather than a sky's-the-limit alternative. But yes, I don't like the MLR. 

Sh*t got real-ish?

Sh*t got real in Germany. Can't say they're wrong. 

Resist China's South China Sea subliminal offensive with concrete. Endorsed. 

The Taliban rejected the American interest in getting Bagram air base back. The American interest only makes sense if it is being treated as a "Hey, we tried ..." box-checking to ... something.

The idea that members of the military have full free speech is silly. Duty limits freedoms they defend. As a reservist, I was limited while on paid duty. In my career I was forbidden from supporting or opposing any state-level bill. I even refrained from voting in primary elections to maintain my nonpartisan status. 

The purpose of West Point is to prepare future officers. This lawsuit should be dismissed. Along with the law professor bringing it who clearly doesn't understand or agree with his role. No more commie cadets.

Israel didn't do it, so the sainted international community won't care. 

The Saudi-Pakistan defense pact is not directed against Israel. I think it has Iran as their common focus. 

Yes. But hard questions are allowed even when "the enduring U.S.-European transatlantic alliance remains a powerful and important model for promoting peace, freedom, and human rights." Those hard questions lead to a modernized three-part purpose for NATO. The author focuses on Portugal.

Here we go: "The first F-47 Next-Generation Air Dominance fighter will be ready to fly by 2028 and the first airframe is already being built[.]" 

Peacetime capability: "The U.S. Army’s next-generation landing craft transported a Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System (NMESIS)[.]" It is not an APD. 

Remember, FPV suicide drone, thou art but a round of ammo. Small drones have limits that "obsolete" systems provide. A welcome counter to the panty-flinging about useful assets that are not silver bullet wonder weapons.

I don't want to suggest that blowing things up isn't the primary way to destroy enemy forces today, but synchronizing non-kinetic effects is important because eventually doom can be imposed without a boom. And our ground troops in contact shouldn't care who dooms the enemy in front of them.

The shiniest new technology never eliminates the need for bloody war in the mud. Even a REMF like myself has never been confused about that. 

Europe's military manpower shortages. But don't think Russia doesn't face the same problems despite scraping for recruits for over 3-1/2 years now. I will note that I went through a pre-boot camp weekend course the Michigan Army National Guard set up. It helped to feel what I'd need to start boot camp.

Can the Russia-India partnership be torpedoed? Why should we? I view it as far more likely that such a partnership will drag Russia away from China than I see it dragging India away from America.

Germany plans to buy anti-torpedo torpedoes. Good luck with that! 

A strong typhoon killed 27 in the Philippines and Taiwan before moving on to China. 

Germany's defense minister said shooting down a Russian plane in NATO air space would be counter-productive. He's right. I don't worry about general war (yet shit happens). But Putin will use losing a plane to bolster Russian will to "fight NATO in Ukraine". Respond with more weapons for Ukraine.

Sniper at a Dallas ICE facility. The sniper killed himself after shooting others. I worry that the dense police response as shown below would be vulnerable to a terrorist double-tap attack:

Israel's strike on Hamas leadership in Qatar "crosses a line" America can't ignore"? I think Qatar hosting leaders of terrorists who slaughtered, raped, kidnapped Israelis on a large scale on October 7, 2023, and use Gazans as human shields on a massive scale crossed the line.

Either America or Britain without more than a general warning notice fired a Trident missile with an "unusual payload" from a submarine in the Atlantic ocean. I'd think if it was a hypersonic weapon we'd know. Unless it failed. Or was testing something other than its speed, I suppose.

The Army MV-75 tilt-rotor is "smart acquisition at the speed of relevance." Golly! I sure hope the aircraft is as good as its buzz words! I assume this is the V-280, which is supposed to carry troops deep behind enemy lines. Easy, stomach.

Navy ships must learn how to hide from enemy sensors and space assets must be integrated to break the kill chain. 

Can Europeans replace American space power? Europeans over-react to Trump. History, eh? America has a vital interest in a friendly Europe. As long as duplicating American capabilities doesn't hurt rearmament, I like more Western space power. But don't let "European" mean the EU. Brussels wants panic.

Good: "The Lewis B. Puller-class expeditionary sea base USS John L. Canley (ESB 6) arrived in Koror, Palau Sept. 22, 2025. "

The Air Force wants a new transport plane able to replace the C-5 and C-17 aircraft. 

The Germans will build slaved "external magazine" ships for their surface combatants. Can control be shifted quickly or does knocking out the crewed ship take out the wingman ship? Too obvious not to be addressed, right?

That's premature: "Europe, the continent that gave the world democracy, Pax Romana, the Renaissance, the Great Explorers, the libertarian ideals of the Scottish enlightenment, the Industrial Revolution and the emancipation of slavery, is now the world’s laughing stock." But its appeal is more selective. 

I suspect normalizing defense relations with Erdogan's Turkey is premature. 

The Trident missile test was actually four missiles fired from an American boat. No word of exotic warheads. Just reliability launches, apparently.

Terrorists earn state recognition for Palestine. But an existing prosperous, peaceful, and democratic Taiwan shouldn't be recognized? That, ladies and gentlemen, is a damning indictment of our sainted international community. 

Is the West losing a new "scramble" for Africa to China? 

Will South Korea count on America's nuclear umbrella and the sainted international community to protect it from North Korean nukes? Or will Seoul develop its own nukes? South Korea is still pondering that choice? Maybe a preemptive precision attack with conventional weapons could disarm North Korea.

Oh? The Ford carrier strike group operating in the high north helps deter Russia. Back in the late Cold War, a surge of carriers to smash up the Kola Peninsula base infrastructure was planned. But now NATO can do that from land bases. 

A call for Canada to focus on continental defense and Atlantic naval power rather than adding too little to matter in the western Pacific. 

A retired American general highlights the importance of friendly armies in INDOPACOM for deterrence--with anti-ship weapons. And he notes the value of China's army for taking Taiwan. Yet absent is using the United States Army in INDOPACOM or on Taiwan for its core competency.

Mystery drones (coughrussiacough) showed up at a Danish base for F-35s. The F-35s were in hardened aircraft shelters, right? Right?

Huh: "Discussions about the eventual phaseout of Link 16 tactical data links are ongoing as the Pentagon’s Space Development Agency works to build out a network for optical communications[.]" 

CENTCOM's Avenger-class mine counter-measures ships: OUT. LCS mine warfare ships: IN. Welp. Good luck.

Britain is seeking port services in Vietnam for Royal Navy use.

Trump opposes Israeli annexation of the West Bank. 

Could Tony Blair successfully de-Hamassify Gaza before turning it over to local control?

Interesting: " Germany will invest €35 billion ($41 billion) in space-related defense projects by 2030, stepping up the country’s technological independence and ability to protect its assets in orbit amid an increasing militarization of outer space[.]" A national and not EU effort.

I'd take this Army-Air Force Key West roles argument more seriously if the Army could trust the Air Force to embrace close air support.  

Victory through air power. Small drones haven't ended that attitude--just put in smaller packages.

Russia's short and glorious war against Ukraine. Oopsky. 

Countering China: "the US and the Cook Islands released a joint statement pledging bilateral cooperation on scientific research and seabed mining." 

Are the former Soviet states middle powers able to assert themselves rather than just be buffeted by Russian and Chinese ambitions? Russia's violation of the "1991 Alma-Ata Declaration, in which all post-Soviet states pledged to respect one another’s territorial integrity", was a wake-up call.

Russians converted a turret-less T-72 to carry a small number of infantry. This has been done for decades. Hence my call for an Abrams IFV or a tank support vehicle. Now I'd say the latter could include anti-drone capabilities.

Before China was worrying America with their penetration of Latin America, Japan was doing similar things prior to World War II. 

Will Russia call NATO's bluff? If it is a bluff, of course Russia will. I believe the question is whether Russia will cross the line in the air that NATO has drawn. 

Is the gathering of brass intended to be laying down the law on roles and missions for each service? I've been concerned about the blurring of missions. I think synergy comes from each service dominating its own domain. I used the Guadalcanal campaign as an example in this 2017 Land Warfare Paper. 

This article confirms what I suspected about Russia's drone attack on Poland: "they were not bombardment drones, just plastic decoys without explosive warheads." 

Oh? "The MBCT [Mobile Brigade Combat Team] is designed to dodge and weave." The Army is so effed.

America is unable to mass produce small drones. I don't know what role they will ultimately play as counter-measures and new tactics are introduced. But as rounds of ammunition (or disposable battlefield surveillance assets), we'll probably need a lot of small drones. 

Iran has escalated the scale of executions. Not many can be actual Israeli spies. Will the mullahs frighten opposition into passivity or anger them into higher levels of resistance? 

Subliminal war: "In view of increasing attacks on data networks and infrastructure, it is no longer possible to describe the situation in Germany as peacetime, the country's chancellor, Friedrich Merz, said on Friday." But a war. Admitting it is a big deal.

Ukraine's counter-air campaign without Big Air Force. 

Israel will deal with the Ship Flotilla of Fools. 

Typhoon Ragasa "leaves mass destruction in its wake". 

Strategy: "U.S. President Donald Trump’s talk of ‘buying’ Greenland is not a whimsical provocation, but the latest in a centuries-old struggle over control of the world’s largest island." It's important real estate.

The Battle for Gaza City continues. 

The strange scraping of TDR by Hong Kong searches continues. I sure hope I'm not training a CCP AI.

The Future at Sea Peaks Around the Curtain

Network-centric warfare (or whatever the current term of art is or will be) sees its future with the Japanese navy.

Japan successfully targeted a surface vessel with a ship-mounted energy-hungry railgun:

According to ATLA, the railgun, mounted on the JMSDF’s test ship Asuka, successfully carried out long-range firings and the shooting at a target ship during the trials. The tests of the gun were conducted with the cooperation of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF).

The photos show the moment of the target ship being aimed at, as well as that of the railgun firing, using the Asuka. The fire control system is also visible next to the railgun. ATLA said details of the tests will be reported at its “ATLA Technological Symposium 2025” to be held on November 11-12 in Tokyo.

No word if the target was hit. But crawl, walk, run to Distributed Maritime Operations, eh?

Extrapolate that into the future as I did (checks calendar) twenty years ago: 

When guns have range that rivals effective aircraft range, the carrier risks being supplanted by guns in a revenge of the lanyards that reverses the demotion gun-armed ships experienced when carriers took the place of honor in World War II.

And would we need nearly as many expensive anti-ship or air defense missiles? 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: ATLA picture from the article. 

Linking the Pieces

The American military is improving its ability to maintain a global reconnaissance-strike complex.

The military has its first 21 satellites for a new constellation of satellites that will connect sensors with shooters:

These satellites will not only detect and track ballistic and hypersonic missile launches; they will also transmit signals between US forces using an existing encrypted tactical data link network known as Link 16. This UHF system is used by NATO and other US allies to allow military aircraft, ships, and land forces to share tactical information through text messages, pictures, data, and voice communication in near real time, according to the SDA's website.

Up to now, Link 16 radios were ubiquitous on fighter jets, helicopters, naval vessels, and missile batteries. But they had a severe limitation. Link 16 was only able to close a radio link with a clear line of sight. The Space Development Agency's satellites will change that, providing direct-to-weapon connectivity from sensors to shooters on Earth's surface, in the air, and in space.

I wrote of the advantages of separating shooters from sensors.

The system isn't just for enabling Golden Dome to shoot down incoming ballistic and other missiles. They will also connect with existing Link 16 systems at the tactical level. 

If sea, air, and land shooters are part of the linked system, American forces will have a significant advantage. Until the other side has something similar, of course. 

The first elements will cover the western Pacific.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: Image from the Space Development Agency in the cited article.

Reach Out and Touch Someone

The B-2 can carry the Quicksink anti-ship missile now. Hello Chinese shipyards.

This was tested near Russia's European backyard:

The U.S. Air Force, alongside Norwegian aircraft, sank a maritime target last week with a new precision-guided bomb in the service’s latest effort to integrate anti-ship munitions amid naval threats from Russia and China. 

But the real impact will be in the Pacific where the ability to more easily hit Chinese shipyards could be a vital balance to China's sea power industrial advantages:

America can't build, maintain, or repair enough ships to match China's shipyard capacity. Perhaps the most important thing the military can do if a war begins is use its geographic position off the coast of China to smash China's shipyards and ports. 

So we've got Quicksink on long-range bombers going for us. Which is nice.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: Photo from the article.

Can America Repeat Ukraine's Success in the Black Sea?

Can America and its allies repeat Ukraine's success in the Black Sea? I'm going to want a full review of the Definitions Section.

This author highlights a problem with praising Ukraine's anti-ship usage in the Black Sea:

One of the greatest challenges to using shore-based missile sites is finding and targeting the enemy. In the case of the Moskva, weather conditions allowed Ukraine to detect and target the ship on radar. Ukrainian forces also asked the United States to confirm the target, which suggests they lack the capability to correlate radar tracks with valid enemy targets.

Yeah, that targeting is rarely mentioned. 

The problem of getting overly enthusiastic about Ukraine's real achievement is something I recognized:

Anybody who says Ukraine's success against Russia's Black Sea Fleet should cause China to worry about what Taiwan could do ignores that Ukraine has inflicted this damage over 25 months. Taiwan would need to inflict multiples of that damage in 25 hours.

While America should be able to link scattered coastal batteries in the Western Pacific with the detection and targeting capabilities it and allies used to help Ukraine, there are limits to Ukraine as an example for defending Taiwan.

Further, Ukraine's anti-ship assets were on the mainland and not on islands subject to isolation by Chinese air and naval power. 

By all means learn from the Black Sea campaign. But try not to go all fanboy on what Ukraine achieved with suicide unmanned surface vessels.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: Photo from the initial article.

Granting Judenfrei Lebensraum

In a stunning move, Britain decided that in retrospect the Germans really did need lebenstraum. I mean, that could be next in the current climate of rewarding those who believe the river to the sea should be Judenfrei.

Britain, Canada, and Australia decided to reward Hamas for slaughtering, raping, and kidnapping Jews:

The United Kingdom, Canada and Australia officially recognized Palestine as a state on Sunday, marking a significant shift in foreign policy and a step away from their alignment with the United States, with several other European nations and U.S. allies set to follow suit this week. 

And Portugal joined them. Shame on those so-called free democracies. They will pretend that Hamas is unacceptable. But Gazans aren't blind. They understand that murder, rape, and using Gazans as human shields--not calm diplomacy with compromise--achieved this. Recognition right now promotes death and not peace. At least not "peace" as any decent human would define it. Hamas and their ilk only hate Jews the most. 

FFS, why do we hate us?

The British--who I expect more from as a major power in our "special relationship"--better get used to fighting jihadis on the beaches, the playgrounds, the football pitches, the streets, and even the concert halls; for they have surrendered to the demands of jihadis. It won't be the last demand.

I'm afraid that the New World cannot step forward to rescue and liberate the Old World from this.  

UPDATE: France follows. This will not bring peace to French suburbs, let alone the Middle East.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: Photo from middleeasteye.net. 

The Winter War of 2022 Remains Poised For ... Something

Where is the Winter War of 2022 going? Will Russia launch a Final Offensive? If so, where? Can Ukraine stop it? And does Ukraine have the reserves to exploit a culminating Russian ground offensive to change the trajectory of the war in Ukraine's favor?

So something seems looming in the Winter War of 2022. Putin claims Russia has a juggernaut inside Ukraine:

More than 700,000 Russian soldiers are currently fighting in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday. 

If Russia has so many troops already inside Ukraine, why has Russia needed to strip troops from much of the front to concentrate on one section, presumably Pokrovsk but who knows? 

Who is counted and who is counting? 

Something big has been expected all year as Russia recommitted to breaking Ukraine's army. Yet the ground war remains a war of Russia grinding forward very slowly at a high cost in lives for Russia. Ukraine loses men, too, but far fewer. Russia is getting hammered.

The air war escalates as Ukraine and Russia expand their capabilities. But so far neither seems poised to deliver victory through air power. 

So we're back to the ground war for decisive events. Maybe it's going to be the same old thing. But maybe something changes as I suggested two years ago after reviewing the World War I stalemates:

One side or the other needs to:

Find new weapons.

Or develop new tactics.

Or exploit a major enemy mistake.

Or get more troops--from outside of the current front or from new allies.

Or conduct decisive economic warfare.

Or expand the front so the troop-to-terrain ratio is low enough to allow movement and exploitation.

Or break the morale of enemy troops.

Or destabilize the other side's government.

Or flip an ally.

Or open a totally new front. 

Any one or a combination of them could finally provide battlefield victory in the Winter War of 2022.

Germany's long siege of Verdun--while failing in its immediate objective to break the French army with attrition--bled France enough to push its army to the edge of the French troop morale crisis in 1917. Maybe Ukraine is doing this to Russia while under siege.

Whether such a battlefield victory leads to a real peace or mere reloading is another issue altogether. 

And here we are more than 43 months into the Winter War of 2022 with the front line barely moving despite massive Russian efforts. And this despite a number of the means listed above being introduced to the war to change that territorial stalemate. But something will change, even if the war simply runs out of steam and seamlessly becomes a so-called frozen conflict as Russia reconstitutes its military to invade again.

Or the change could be dramatic. 

UPDATE (Thursday): Details of the Russian 90th tank division massing in Pokrovsk direction is interesting:

“With around 25,000 personnel, it’s by far their biggest division,” analyst Moklasen reported. The division oversees three tank regiments and two or three motor rifle regiments, each with six battalions. 

Is Russian command and control effective enough to command a division that large? Or does the size doom it to piecemeal employment and potential destruction? 

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. 

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section. 

In case you missed it on Substack: Light and ... Lethal?

In case you missed it on Substack: War. Huh. What is it Good For?

In case you missed it on Substack: Tank Losses are Normal

In case you missed it on Substack: Will Artificial Intelligence Make Barely Used Weapons Obsolete?

North Korea didn't like it: "The United States, South Korea and Japan opened an air and naval exercise off a South Korean island Monday [.]"

Russia may increase their domestic VAT to pay for the war, adding to the public burden and risking more inflation. 

CRS report to Congress on Navy Distributed Maritime Operations. 

Eastern Sentry mission: "British, Danish, French and German 'assets' will be deployed to NATO’s eastern flank imminently[.]" 

Russian military bloggers are angry that Zapad 2025 military exercises are simply a pageant with little learned from the actual war.

Debunking allegations against Israel of genocide. 

Don't worry. India and China can't paper over deep divisions. Unless India gives in to all of China's territorial claims. Indeed, Russia and India should unite against China.

Are the drums of war in Europe between NATO and Russia echoing in the UN Security Council? I suspect this is more of a faux crisis that the European Union will exploit to add to its powers.

Canadians need to grow up. We get it. You're not American. And that's okay. Get over what was a political taunt at Trudeau. Clinging to this reveals more about you than you think.

India won't be using those P-8s to search for AUKUS subs. 

Face it, even doubling the manpower of the German military--in the years beyond 2035--will not make it adequate. But expansion takes time if you don't want a hollow military. 

Apparently, the civilian-based phone alerts are no longer vital for air defense: "Ukraine may intentionally reduce the quality of mobile communications during Russian drone attacks to stop the networks being used to coordinate strikes[.]" 

American forces destroyed a second narcotics vessel in the Caribbean Sea.

José Aponte de la Torre Airport in Puerto Rico, the former Naval Station Roosevelt Roads, and associated port facilities are a major staging area for American military operations in the Caribbean for the current anti-drug deployments. 

Indeed: "Drone interceptors are emerging as the newest munition that European manufacturers say could become a relatively inexpensive way of countering swarms of attack drones." The prophecy is fulfilled.

Israel's Gaza City operation to destroy Hamas has begun. 

Russia is acting evil in a most basic way. 

Sweden responds to the Russian threat by increasing defense spending. 

Can the Baltic States redesign their roads and bridges to be easier to convert from invasion paths to obstacles? 

Managing and integrating intelligence information into unit operations. I had related thoughts. 

Hezbollah will not readily release its grip on southern Lebanon: "Israel struck a Hezbollah headquarters in southern Lebanon’s Nabatiyeh area on Monday, the army said." 

China can now use the Arctic Northern Route for Europe-to-China shipping. I'm sure Russia likes having a grip on a Chinese trade route. But in war, how does Chinese shipping make it through the Bering Strait? 

I'm not sure why it should be "unthinkable" for Poland to consider war with Russia a possibility. Poland's history says to prepare for that lest you get conquered. And it's the reason Poland joined NATO.

The P-8 gets the LRASM. 

American Rangers are experimenting with small suicide drones. Does this suggest use in special operations rather than being a weapon for routine combat?

Has the British army forgotten the importance of artillery lethality in war? I hope not. The God of War is unforgiving on that issue. Tip to Matthew Palmer.

War: "Israel said it struck a military infrastructure site in its latest attack on Yemen's Houthi movement at the Red Sea port of Hodeidah on Tuesday." 

Iraq's elections are training wheels democracy in its institutionalized sectarian balances. So not much is expected to achieve needed changes. Yet you have to admit that deciding who rules with ballots rather than bullets since the American-led coalition destroyed the Saddam regime is tremendous progress. 

China's subliminal war continues: "China's Coast Guard said on Tuesday it fired water cannon at Philippine ships near the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea[.]" 

I'm confident that the Belarus invitation to America to send military observers to Zapad 2025 exercises with Russia is a desperate effort to prevent Russia from completing the Anschluss.  

A call for NATO to exploit its amphibious warfare capability in the "High North". 

So far it still seems like this Ukraine-European UGV development is for coping with static warfare ("real combat conditions") rather than breaking out of it. 

I think there is a tendency to interpret actions not achieving very much as a shrewd "long game." A chess master? LOL. See also, China.

Distributed ship construction to speed American destroyer construction. 

Breathe, people. 

UNIFIL's moment of truth in Lebanon? Um ... again? 

One does not wage a "war" with a handful of ships and planes plus a couple thousand Marines. But maybe if Maduro is overthrown that size of a force could take him and his top cronies into custody to bring them back to America for trials.

Huh: "U.S.–South Korea drills now assume North Korea could use nuclear weapons first." That seems suicidal. But I worry North Korea will have no idea it isn't under nuclear attack.

Cheap but fast motorcycles and ATVs have proven agile enough to reduce the threat of FPV suicide drones hitting them. But the vehicles offer no protection. FFS, area artillery fire, machine guns in a thicker front, or simple obstacles would defeat them.

CRS report to Congress on American special forces.

Well that's a good development: "Taiwan has officially rolled out a new anti-ballistic missile system called Chiang Kung, or Strong Bow, which it says is now in production." 

Alliance in action: "The U.S. Navy and Royal Australian Navy (RAN) conducted bilateral training in support of a free and open Indo-Pacific through the South China Sea, Sept. 15-16." 

A call for Britain to rearm its "woefully understrength and underequipped" military quickly. 

Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a mutual defense pact. Pakistan once deployed troops in Saudi Arabia, the Saudis funded Pakistan's nuclear weapons program, and the Saudis had Chinese-made missiles I suspect could use Pakistani nuclear warheads. Will this deter Iran or peel Pakistan away from China?

An Awakening/Surge end game in Gaza? "Local clans across Gaza are pushing back against Hamas control, forming understandings with the IDF and fighting in areas under pressure from Israel’s military offensive."

ISIL is down but not out inside Syria. 

Huh: "The Trump administration reportedly approved its first European-financed foreign military sales to Ukraine through the Prioritized Ukrainian Requirements List (PURL) initiative." I said don't panic.

Will there be more dam problems in Africa? 

Speaking of PURL: "Ukraine expects there will be around $3.5 billion by next month in a fund to buy weapons from the United States[.]" 

Well, good luck with that. It sounds like a potential free-fire zone for SOUTHCOM.

Seeking means to adapt to more threats to tanks. More infantry operations and other capabilities. 

Happy birthday, Air Force. They grow up so fast! 

Russia ramps up threats to Finland. By Russia's standard, the threats are weak. Russia's broad threats conceal weakness as its ground forces die in Ukraine. 

It seems as if airships are periodically proposed for maritime surveillance. This time for sure? 

Show the videos of October 7, 2023 of Hamas and their cloud of allies and fanboys gleefully murdering, raping, and kidnapping Israelis and I bet the poll percentage drops to 15%. Well, I hope, anyway.

Oh? "President Trump said he is aiming to regain control of Bagram Air Base, [in Afghanistan.]"

China's robot army is already here. I suspect the robots are intended for the easier task of killing unruly civilians without worrying about human hesitation to kill for the CCP. 

Lovely little continent you have there. It would be a shame if anything happened to it.

ATACMS works to provide deep strikes when you lack air superiority. Or when your Air Force has little interest in supporting the Army when it could win the war with an independent air campaign. I hope the replacement for ATACMS works, too. 

Russian Mig-31s violated Estonian air space. When Russia pulls these stunts, rather than respond by shooting them down I'd increase support to Ukraine with weapons, usage permissions, and/or ISR information.

Egypt says it might send more troops to Sinai but won't shoot Gazans approaching the border. Israel is supposedly the target of the show of force but I think we all know it is because Egypt will never let the Gazans they love so much get inside Egypt.  

Germany doesn't seem to trust France in co-developing a new fighter plane. And thus ends French plans to ride Germany to power in the EU.

Yeah, stop panicking over a India-China thaw.  

We don't know if the Taiwanese have the will to fight a Chinese invasion. 

Israel's drive into Gaza City. 

Careful: "The [so-called Gaza relief aid] armada of about forty vessels is now roughly 1,000 miles from the coast of Gaza." Israeli warships should escort it under live video feeds because Hamas has an interest in a bunch of the vessels burning and sinking with loss of life.

Hamas wants Gazans to suffer and die: "The UN vehicles were reportedly stolen, and terrorists placed sandbags on the route to prevent new attempts to deliver aid." Hamas could end the suffering and death by surrendering.

Sadly, Israel's war to destroy Hamas in Gaza has gotten a deadline of unknown timing from so-called liberal democracies. 

I have seen massive hits this last week, mostly from South America. On top of my last surge of mostly Vietnam hits. .. And Hong Kong has resumed its scraping. Weird. I have never seen anything like this before this year. Is this an AI scraping my site? If not, what is it? 

The Coming Black Box of Effects

Calling for help from everything near the battlefield, whatever they are, and all at once if necessary.

I've long wanted a "black box of effect" that ground troops would use when calling in fire or other effects support:

In my ideal world, fire support is a black box where a call to destroy or suppress a target automatically calls in the appropriate weapon capable of taking out the target in a timely manner without the soldier making the support request even knowing what asset provided the support.

It could be a plane or space system out of sight, an attack helicopter, a ship or submarine offshore, a distant ground force missile or artillery asset, or even an 81mm mortar back at the company level. ...

Here we go:

“[The vision is] having connectivity between our formations, having every aircraft being able to talk to every aircraft, every ship able to talk to every aircraft, every unit of action on the ground talk to every other unit of action on the ground, and the shooters in the air and in maritime,” Grynkewich said. “So that’s work that’s ongoing.”

Unit of action? Whoa. That's an old term. I assume it still means brigade-sized Army formations.

As I've noted, options expand when you separate the sensors from the shooters (and link them).

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Everybody Fights the Cold in an Arctic War

Arctic warfare requires equipment and training designed to survive long enough to fight and win. POLARCOM might be needed to make sure American and allied forces defeat the cold and the enemy.

This goes beyond mere cold weather training for lower latitude battlefields:

Elite combat troops shred their physiques to look like Hollywood hunks. In the Arctic, that can kill you.

The cold eats away at soldiers, who lose on average 3,000 calories a day while on exercises in the Arctic Circle—even while eating full rations and before they have taken part in any strenuous activity.

I think a Polar Command would help learn lessons from allies already proficient in Arctic survival and combat in order to institutionalize the skills and knowledge in the American military and make sure all allies operating there can share the information.

Canada should end its strategic confusion by looking to the real great white north and focusing its attention on the Arctic.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: Photo from the article.

Smart Rifles Require Even Smarter Infantry

Drone counter-measures are being developed and the best way to use the plethora of equipment (and I assume tactics and practices to go along with the equipment) is being examined. The AI-enabled rifle scopes have repercussions outside of countering drones.

This reaction was inevitable despite the panty-flinging directed at FPV drones:

High powered counter-drone targeting scopes for the M4 rifle, tank protecting “cage” armor to create explosions “away” from an armored vehicles under drone attack, tailored EW transmissions designed to disable or “jam” drone swarms and even power-scaled laser weapons  built to incinerate enemy drones …..are all critical topics now being analyzed in great depth by combat experts, weapons developers, Army academics and experienced combat operators at the service’s fast-evolving Counter UAS University at Fort Sill Okla.  

The drone counter-measures are no surprise. Combined arms will expand but remain the core function of ground forces.

But the smart rifle-scope will force infantry to completely change infantry training. I explored this in a USNI Blog article about smart rifles. When the rifle rather than the soldier provides 95% of the aiming ability, training must shift from marksmanship to infantry tactics to maintain close combat superiority over enemies--even irregulars--that will have similar capabilities.

Instead of marksmanship badges, The Army will need tactics badges.

UPDATE: In related news, the British Army wants a new rifle. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: Image by the Army from the cited article.

Is It Folly to Hold the First Island Chain?

Is holding the line at the First Island Chain folly that risks our hard-to-replace military assets? The Army, which can't sail or fly away with the same ease as Air Force and Navy assets is perhaps sensitive to this issue more than the other services. 

The larger PLA on interior lines with the ability to hit lines of supply threaten America and its allies: 

“Fading advantages in firepower, distributed forces, and the growing operational reach of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) require an expansion of operational thought,” wrote Maj. Patrick Smith in a recent essay for Military Review, an Army professional publication. “The joint force must consider methods of retrograde to shape advantages in time, space, and force.”

Maybe the problems of War Plan Orange are too great to overcome despite today's different situation. The Army remembers Bataan. And I worry that penny packets of Marine SIFs will repeat that agony. This vulnerability may explain some capabilities that could self-deploy over significant water gaps--to fight or retreat--if necessary.

But some allies whose forces are vital to defeat China can't retreat. And we'd lose one advantage of maintaining forward positions. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: Map from the linked Military Review article.