How the Proto-Empire Strips Away the Pesky Prefix

A stronger European Union will cause far more problems than it solves for Europeans and America. The example of classical Athens does not demonstrate the value of top-down integration.

Yellow represents Athens and its allies/empire.

Looking back at the Athens-Sparta model for current national security issues, this author offers Athens' Delian League as an example for Europeans to follow to gain strength:

Alone, European countries are second-rate. Together, Europe can be a superpower.

Not only would this enable Europe to pursue a qualified independent geostrategic approach, it goes hand in hand with economic growth and the deeply integrated continent envisioned by Mario Draghi. That is a powerful plan that Thucydides would approve of. ...

Thucydides notes that fear, honor, and self-interest drive behavior; if appeals to solidarity and democracy fail, leaders should emphasize the material benefits of integration and the dangers of inaction.

The Delian League, forged before the Peloponnesian War, offered allies common coinage, measures, free trade, and secure seas. Europe can make a similar case: deeper integration can deliver far greater tangible gains than the cheap energy Russia can offer.

The author wants an "ever closer union" as the European Union calls its integration. But "ever closer league" turned a league into an Athenian empire. I fear Brussels is already the Athens of that proto-empire. It already gathers the treasury within its domain. Don't let it get an army.

Sparta defeated that Athenian empire, by the way. 

European countries need defense integration, but it must be through NATO which has free countries bolstered by America's post-Cold War role. And here's one suggestion I made in Army magazine on aggregating European military power.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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NOTE: Map from Wikipedia: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_Peloponnesian_War_431_BC-en.svg. Modified with EU flag on Imgflip.com.

Remembering Route Security

Route security is nothing new in history, notwithstanding the bright shiny small drones that threaten units behind the lines today.

Why Army logistics need to think like combat units to survive drones:  

For the first time since World War II, U.S. Army logisticians must contemplate a grim future where supply units no longer have the luxury of assuming that the Air Force can shield them from aerial threats. Nor that being behind the front lines will keep them safe from enemy bombardment.

While it wasn't due to enemy aerial threats, the Army had to do that in Iraq. Recall too the flying IEDs in Iraq that were proto-suicide drones. And really, that problem is nothing new even with aerial supremacy.

Hell, Army combat units need to think more this way. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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NOTE: Photo from the article. 

If Turtle Tanks are the Future

Turtle tanks have appeared on the battlefield. These are tanks with armored and protected superstructures build on top of a tank to protect them from FPV suicide drones, leaving the tank turret able to traverse in a narrow forward arc. This abandons the advantage of a turret that can fire 360 degrees. 

Turtle tanks seem to be able to endure more FPV drone punishment while still carrying out their missions. I don't know how many tanks have been turned into turtle tanks. I assume new means of protecting tanks will be created, with both passive and active kinetic and electronic means so such crude turret and engine compartment caves aren't needed. 

Tanks may need to change how they fight and how they look. I suggested one model based on the M3 Lee tank. That goes part of the way to the assault gun model. If turtle tanks are--even if the massive protective shell looks very different--how tanks will survive, would it make sense to build cheaper and simpler assault guns that incorporate the main gun in the hull to continue to provide mobile, protected firepower on the battlefield? 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: Photo of Russian "turtle tank" from this article. 

Sh*t Got Unrailed

NATO is still trying to establish logistics links to its front line facing Russia. Bureaucrats and their all-powerful rules are more dangerous than Russian drones and missiles.

Are you effing kidding me?

Obtaining approval to cross neighboring countries by military convoy today takes much longer than a European Union target of five days – “more like tens of days,” said Brig. Gen. Fabrice Feola, who commands France’s Centre for Operations and Transport Support, in a briefing here on Thursday. ...

The EU has vowed to address the bloc’s remaining barriers to military mobility in a regulatory proposal this year. ... 

Europe’s overground transportation network needs to mapped out better “on order to return to what we had during the Cold War,” with no doubts or ambiguity about the capability of roads and railways to handle large flows, according to the general.

Every bit of logistics progress--and EU efforts predate the Winter War of 2022--seems to be stymied by bureaucrats. That the EU's bureaucrats are in charge of fixing this for NATO is no comfort. The whole thing is just unreal given that war rages just beyond NATO's borders.

Have a super sparkly day. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: I made the image with Bing. As I've said before, Bing with its "unsafe" content filter makes it difficult for a defense writer to illustrate their work. 

Prepare to Win--Not to Deter

Preparing to deter an enemy sounds nice in theory. But it counts on understanding how much pain you can inflict and how much pain an enemy finds unacceptable. 

This makes sense but it costs more than the optimistic mind-reading path:

Political leaders can always talk about deterrence, but if it is little more than an optimistic prediction, the military cannot use it as a strategic framework. Only a maritime strategy grounded in warfighting can fully prepare the Sea Services to fight the war that will follow deterrence’s failure. 

That applies more generally to all of the military, of course. And to other countries. Russia and Hamas still fight long after exceeding reasonable calculations of what kind of pain would deter them from starting a war.

I have complained that focusing on deterrence is insufficient, and actually leads to worse madness:

Just as there is no substitute for victory in war, there is no substitute for American military power to deter an enemy from attacking. So let's just put away that "integrated deterrence" nonsense. ...

America faces military threats. The proper measure for defeating those threats is American military power.

By all means, use all elements of our power to defeat enemies in peace and war. But don't pretend any of the non-military elements matter when it comes to defeating an enemy military in combat. 

Not that calculating what is needed to win is any less subject to over-optimistic assessments. But at least preparing for a higher objective gives a little more margin of error. 

And it lets an enemy know you are serious about actually defeating them. Which has real deterrence value, no? 

Also, bonus point to the author for the Zulu quote. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

The Winter War of 2022 Gets Suspicious

Russia portrays its military effort as a relentless but slow and costly bludgeoning of Ukraine's outnumbered ground forces. The hammer blows will eventually break Ukraine, Moscow insists, making negotiations unnecessary unless the West is willing to abandon Ukraine and just get this over with. I have strong doubts that Russia really is achieving what Moscow claims.

The war goes on. Russians seemingly die in large numbers to infiltrate the broad No-Man's Land and leverage the thin Ukrainian infantry line backwards. The latest change is sacrificing lots of precious armored combat vehicles to enable their advance. There are rumors of Russian economic difficulties (but those have been floated since Russia invaded). 

Russia insists it will win it all:

The Kremlin is leaning into its cognitive warfare effort to portray Russian forces as relentlessly advancing and a Russian victory as inevitable. This effort aims to obscure the reality that Russian forces are only making minimal gains at disproportionately high manpower costs and that Russia is unlikely to obtain its strategic objectives by force in the short- or medium-term.

How does that victory unfold? Where is the Russian big fall offensive I thought Moscow planned? The Big Push? The Final Offensive that will bulldoze all before it? The offensive that uses the strategic reserve of armored combat vehicles and troops that Russia has gathered after a 2025 of flinging infantry at Ukraine's lines in small numbers that have added up to lots of KIA but small territorial gains while inflicting far fewer casualties on the Ukrainians?

I wrote early in the year that I just wasn't seeing the evidence of Russia's massive army:

I've noted that I feel Russia is trying to create an image of overwhelming and relentless ground power to demoralize Ukraine and more importantly, the West. But since Russia has the initiative, it can hold sections with fewer troops to concentrate troops in certain sections of the front to maintain a sizable advantage in numbers in order to attack and grind forward. The August 2024 Ukrainian Kursk incursion demonstrates what can be achieved against those "quiet" Russian sectors.

... Russian ground formations have 615,000 men. Minus 21,000 in Armenia and the rest. So that's 594,000 men available. Minus 450,000 inside Ukraine. So 144,000 free troops left. Plus there are 40,000 inside Russia attacking the Ukrainian-held Kursk salient. So Russia has 104,000 troops for the rest of Russia. Unless Russia has managed to secretly gather and arm a secret strategic reserve--often claimed by some Westerners but never evident--that's a problem for Russia.

And here we are seven months later with Russia doing more of the same all spring and summer--dying in large numbers to claw forward at the pace of a lava flow--apparently losing more men per month than they have recruited. A month into the fall Russia is seemingly unable to mount a significant fall offensive that looks any different than the dull roar we are used to seeing. And Ukrainian forces seem to be much more active counter-attacking.

Mind you, I'm not claiming this situation can't change dramatically. It can. And while a Russian sector could be vulnerable, Ukraine might never notice before the units recover. Conversely, because the initiative is generally with the Russians, if the Ukrainian army breaks on one section of the front, Russia could march forward in a relatively fast pace until Ukraine can reform a defensive line. It may or may not be decisive, of course.

Yet my gut tells me that Trump has been playing nice with Putin to entice him like a hesitant squirrel uncertain of whether the offered walnut is a trap or a treat. And if Putin refuses, Trump will give Ukraine more tools to punish Putin for refusing to end the war he started. Not that I think Tomahawks will be a silver bullet on the military side. Like Abrams, F-16s, ATACMS, or any other weapon sent to Ukraine with great fanfare by commentators, new weapons add to what Ukraine can do. Every little bit helps.

And at some point, Putin may finally get the light bulb moment after yet another whack to the head with the clue bat. Putin may believe that Trump offers Putin a fig leaf of ending the war without rubbing Putin's nose in the mess of Putin's folly. The basis for an American-Russian rapprochement against a common enemy exists. Russia might prefer to have China and America wage war against each other. But Putin's Plan B after wrecking his ability to defend Russia's Far East may be having American help to resist China.

Heck, it may be his only chance to save his presidency if not his life. 

Hey, only Nixon can go to China. And perhaps only Trump can go to Russia.

Under the circumstances, I have to ask again whether the massive Red Army is only a reality on reports that reach the Kremlin. Are Russia's extraordinary measures to entice/trick recruits into the war finally running out of targets?

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. 

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section. 

In case you missed it on Substack: Phase Zero of a New War?

In case you missed it on Substack: Russia Prepares For a Future

In case you missed it on Substack: The Army Must Train to a Higher Skill Level

In case you missed it on Substack: The Keys to Mobile Warfare

Strategypage writes that the Marines are getting back to their amphibious roots. I don't see it that way. It look more like they want to be a "second Navy" with anti-ship batteries on land. Oh, and with small drones, because ... reasons?

Ukraine is certainly using drones to its advantage across the deep No-Man's Land, deep in Russia, and in the Black Sea.

There is an effort in the Senate to block American military action against Venezuela without Congressional approval. I'm not sure the War Powers Act is legal. And a declaration of war isn't the only way to go to war. But Congress certainly can stop a war with its appropriations powers. 

The Army would like "loyal wingman" drones for its helicopters.

The Nimitz carrier strike group has moved into the South China Sea after sailing in CENTCOM for three months. 

Sh*t got real: "U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) announced the establishment of a new Joint Task Force (JTF) under II Marine Expeditionary Force (II MEF) today to synchronize and augment counter-narcotics efforts across the Western Hemisphere." 

Four B-1 bombers deployed to Japan, likely for exercises with Japanese forces. 

I certainly hope Trump's claim that Ukraine must be prepared to trade land for what will be called "peace" is part of the effort to get the skittish squirrel Putin to approach and take the offered cracker ceasefire and negotiations. 

The USSR tested a missile defense system with an active protection point defense system that fired a shower of tungsten darts. It seemed to work. America had a similar idea. I'm feeling a lot better about my swarming drone missile defense idea.

A NATO naval exercise proved that secure ship-to-ship communications with a laser works. 

Arguing against the drug war as an actual war against foreign cartels. I don't know, we went to the shores of Tripoli for to fight pirates and the governments that backed them without a declaration of war. We even tried to overthrow a government with mercenaries, a handful of Marines, and the Navy. What's the goal?

LOL! When has Iran agreed to restrict its nuclear weapons ambition?

Special Forces helicopters are near Venezuela. What's their objective? 

None of the American military assets reported near Venezuela seem new. The Navy element seems smaller than early reports. It is significant for SOUTCHOM, but it is no invasion force.

Huh: "A North Korean soldier defected to South Korea across the rivals' heavily fortified border on Sunday, South Korea's military said." 

Palestinians need a new statehood model: "the right to participate in the emerging market-driven global economy. The goal is not to reclaim land, but to claim agency." I've got your new model right here. But that's not my main advice.

I'm pretty sure that China's 5-year plan is mostly important for letting provincial officials know what sort of lies about statistics will be believable. 

I find it hard to believe there are environmental protection motives involved: "Russia plans to begin preparations in 2026 for raising two Soviet-era nuclear submarines that sank in Arctic waters[.]" 

At least two South Korean shipyards believe that they can help restore American Navy shipyard capabilities. 

Zelensky said the U.S. is finalizing a long-term deal to supply Ukraine with 25 Patriot missile systems.

Good: "Germany and the Netherlands are slated to get hundreds of newly developed Jackal wheeled infantry fighting vehicles under a multibillion-dollar deal, co-producer Rheinmetall announced on Monday." Will they have soldiers to man them? 

The Philippine Coast Guard will be improved with "American training programs, advisors and maintenance assistance."

Madagascar's coup leader has named a new prime minister. 

Russia could have joined the West: "Russia continues turning into a full police state. New laws reinstate many of the arbitrary powers the Soviet Union police and intelligence officials had." Sadly, post-Soviet Russia clung to a stabbed-in-the-back theory. And now Russia has enemies that its delusions created.

Did Ukraine's Spider's Web special forces attacks on Russia's long-range bombers take two years to plan? If so, it really isn't a lesson for modern warfare. Special forces are great. But they aren't conventional forces for wholesale-level fighting.

The CCP's Great Wall of Placidity: "peek behind the veil, and a different reality reveals itself: a dog-eat-dog world of power struggles, artifice, hubris, treachery, and duplicity—yet also an enormous amount of sacrifice." 

Is the U.S. building 28 more B-2 bombers? I think the simplest explanation is that Trump was referring to the new B-21 and not the existing B-2 whose production line is long dormant. 

Huh: "LRMP offers ER-GMLRS a brand-new anti-ship capability with multiple independently targeted gliding submunitions that can fly up to 70 miles (120 kilometers) beyond the 93 mile (150 kilometer) ER-GMLRS range."

Replacing the Bradley: "the XM30 is intended to thrive on battlefields defined by electronic warfare, autonomous systems, and near-peer threats." It is also to be optionally crewed. I was less ambitious on that issue in this Infantry article. One day, Ukraine will get lots of Bradleys--which they like a lot.

AUKUS is back. I never believed the project would be cancelled notwithstanding an American review that sparked panic.

Are Venezuela's air-launched supersonic anti-ship missiles a threat to the U.S. Navy? If so, all that American ISR taking place will make sure the planes and missiles are first targets on the ground. Still, is all this concealing the real target? 

Good: "Iraq ’s prime minister said Monday that a small contingent of U.S. military advisers will remain in the country for now to coordinate with U.S. forces in neighboring Syria combating the Islamic State group." Also, Iraq is too scared to say the other reason out loud. 

Good: "The new United States–Australia Framework for Securing of Supply in the Mining and Processing of Critical Minerals and Rare Earths is a game-changer for both countries and for producers such as Arafura Resources in the Northern Territory." 

Snapback divisions. Wait. What? They didn't already snap back on Iran? Maybe I was premature in declaring I was wrong about my longstanding view on the process as unenforceable. 

For want of a home buyer, the kingdom was lost? Tip to Instapundit.

Anti-Houthi Yemenis seem to have granted permission to an outside player (the UAE?) to build an airfield on the Red Sea Zuqar Island. 

Good: "Japan and South Korea, United States security allies in Northeast Asia, have recently strengthened their mine warfare capabilities amid China's growing naval presence." 

Britain builds the next generation of nuclear warheads. Without actual test detonations--now banned--do we know if they actually work? I know computer simulations are supposed to figure that out. But seriously, computer simulations? What could possibly go wrong? 

Pakistan and Afghanistan pause their border clashes to reload. Pakistan undermined America by supporting the Taliban, too, and to their horror the Pakistanis find that the Taliban control Afghanistan. 

If even a small portion of Venezuela's arsenal is maintained with personnel who can operate them, I'll be shocked. 

Definitely look up: "Space-based shenanigans are increasing in Earth's orbit." 

FFS: "The majority of ground combat vehicles used by the U.S. Army and Marine Corps are not ready to take part in missions due to a lack of maintenance and shortages of spare parts, warns a congressional watchdog." 

I consider this a question from the "Well, Duh" files. The answer is obviously "yes." If the answer is "no" we aren't trying to win. Let's not focus on the post-war so much that we forget to win the war.

Oh? "United States defense assistance should focus on freeing Taiwan’s senior military leadership from outdated paradigms by embedding multi-domain operations, joint training and campaign-level wargaming." This gets Taiwan too focused on buzz words and BS while the PLA goes for the jugular.

China is a-hole: Down Under Edition.

Is a renewed Ethiopia-Eritrea war looming? Would Eritrea and Ethiopia's restive Tigray region link up to wage war? 

Russia and Ukraine each think they have a path to victory: "Someone is mistaken and, if history is any indication, both sides are overly optimistic about the war’s outcome." 

The Houthi are quiet: "A practical reason for this is that most of the Houthi weapons have been destroyed and the Yemeni army is now active again against the Houthis. The army seized a large shipment of Iranian weapons meant for the Houthis." The title is apparently irrelevant. As for convoys, Navy in a box?

Grant me that I repeatedly said Trump would find a way to arm Ukraine: "Trump has got his isolationist followers off his back by selling the sophisticated weapons to Europe, which they will then put into the hands of the Ukrainians at no cost to the US public." 

Is Trump triggering a Canadian time of troubles? I can't rule it out. But certainly the underlying causes of crisis are from Canada's own actions over many years. A mature country would dismiss Trump's past taunts. But maybe confederation is a better strategy for Canadian prosperity and freedoms, eh?

Uh oh: "According to an article in the UK Defence Journal, advances in sensors, the technology and ubiquity of uncrewed surface vessels (USVs), and especially AI, are contributing to the revolution in anti-submarine warfare (ASW)."

I'd take this essay on responding to China's Global Governance Initiative more seriously if the author had used "equality" as part of the response rather than "equity." Sure, China is twisting words with self-serving definitions. But the pot is scolding the kettle, no?

I don't think America risks alienating India. If hardball trade negotiations are seen as a bigger threat to India than China's military and economic threats or Pakistan-backed terrorism, well ... good luck with that. Breathe, people.

Good: "Taiwan's defence ministry said on Wednesday it intends to deepen collaboration with the United States, including reciprocal visits and observation of military exercises, to help maintain peace and stability in the region." Driving the PLA into the sea will be difficult without coordination. 

Sweden will sell Ukraine fighter jets. It will take years to get them. 

Sigh: "President Donald Trump and his Colombian counterpart Gustavo Petro traded angry threats Wednesday as the United States announced strikes on two alleged drug-smuggling boats ... ." We helped them fight communists for decades. And then unleashed Smart Diplomacy® on the problem. 

FUBAR: "there are nearly 600 F-16s in Europe flown by non-U.S. nations, spread across a half-dozen blocks that may have differing engine types, oxygen systems and analog versus digital controls." We can't maintain each other's planes! And variation extends to ground equipment! This is insane!

Supply chain security: "A gold mine in Stibnite, Idaho, that once churned out critical minerals for the U.S. 'Arsenal of Democracy' during World War II was resurrected last month by the U.S. Army and Perpetua Resources Inc." 

Will Canada join Norway in Germany's Type 212CD submarine program? 

Sh*t got real in INDOPACOM. Bravo, China. This is on you. 

China's subliminal offensive is being met with hard power: "Philippine forces trained last week to defend Balabac, a strategic island in Palawan that is set to host a new military base dedicated to South China Sea operations." 

I wonder if Ukraine's more capable USVs will be important for crossing the Dnipro River. 

I understand the drive to make first contact with robots rather than human soldiers. But don't get carried away with thinking technology will replace young men fighting, bleeding, and dying in the mud. We will always need trigger pullers. Not everyone can tap tablet screens.

Defense industry testing was high on my list of possibilities. Tip to Instapundit. 

Russia invaded Ukraine on a large scale in February 2022. If countries are still buying discounted Russian energy in late 2025, I doubt new American sanctions will help. Unless America can engineer a surge of non-Russian energy at prices Russia can't beat. 

Europe is weak in peace but has latent power to be strong in war. Yes, I worry about a hostile power controlling the economic, scientific, and demographic assets of Europe to create a threat to America.

Discipline and tough training is a needed Pentagon reform: "Reform, then, is not nostalgia. It is a return to the toughness that keeps Soldiers alive and missions won." Teach them properly.

Should the idea of the Army Pentomic Division organization designed to disperse in the face of nukes be revived to endure the FPV suicide drones? The author notes that would require better span-of-control capabilities in the controlling headquarters and superb training to operate so dispersed. Hmm.

The Freedom Eagle-1 (FE-1) anti-drone rocket for larger suicide drone defense. 

BOOM #8 in the drug war. I worry the cartels will use human shields, perhaps strapping a nun or child to the deck and score a propaganda win. 

Big, if true: "President Trump disclosed this week that talks with China could result in some type of deal on Taiwan, an unofficial U.S. ally facing the prospect of a Chinese military takeover."   

Good Lord, could Islamist terrorists take over Mali? The stupidity of Mali's rulers ejecting the French and relying on Russia's Wagner mercenaries is now evident. Wagner's job is to destabilize Africa and send gold to Russia. Mission accomplished. 

The Navy faces a crisis as America's shipbuilding industry is unable to build quality ships rapidly or repair and maintain the ships and submarines it has. Ship got real.

Headline from Bizzaro World Times? "Syrian forces negotiate truce with French-led jihadist group holed up in camp[.]" Or maybe just news from the near future in our timeline.

Drone war: "In the Fall of 2023, a brigade of the 10th Mountain Division became the first large unit of U.S. soldiers to face waves of long-distance one-way attack drones." They did shoot down a lot. Still, the brigade had to just sit and take it on defense. 

Bomb damage assessment is hard. 

Russia failed to get its short and glorious war. But I don't understand the statement that "after more than three years of fighting, the Ukrainians are gaining more ground ... ". No. Russia lost a lot of ground in 2022 after their initial gains. But Russia slowly takes ground. Is this text old but carried forward?

Drug War BOOM #9. Are land strikes next? That's a major escalation and risks inter-state war.

Army troops now in for the duration (of the government "shutdown"). 

Unless I'm getting slanted news, that seemed an unnecessary artillery demonstration. The closest to action I experienced was getting a very nervous signal crew reporting that artillery was falling uncomfortably close. I reported the reported danger rapidly and I was able to quickly (to me!) confirm fire was shifted.

I understand the European interest in this--but good luck with that. 

South Korea launched the first of three new attack subs: "The agency described Batch-II as a 'world-class diesel submarine' and a 'core military asset to counter diverse maritime security threats.'" South Korea is no longer solely fixated on DMZ security.

Ukrainian cyber-war against Russia. I wonder if Western countries help out with methods and intelligence on targets in exchange for sharing information gained.

Yes, NATO has more war potential than Russia. And Russia is farther east. But a Cold War invasion wouldn't have looked like the Winter War of 2022. West Germany had 248,717 km² of territory. Russia's 2022 gains peaked at 119,000 km². Losing half--even if a broad Soviet advance--could have been fatal.  

If Trump is coming for Maduro--and I don't assume that--it is only in the sense that we would support a revolt. Precision strikes to halt Maduro counter-attacks and Marines reinforcing our embassy (kept running by hired locals) defenses are all I would expect from the military if a serious revolt overthrows Maduro.

Canada's defense "death spiral" "has left the nation with a skeleton force—including only 40 naval vessels—struggling to patrol the world’s longest coastline and the strategic Arctic." The author suggests a sense of urgency for the Arctic. Indeed. All I ask is that Canada not stink on ice.  

The Navy should match its deployments to its capabilities: "The U.S. Navy no longer needs to 'command the sea' but should instead pursue a strategy of 'disciplined restraint,' focusing on denying sea control to rivals in key regions." I have suggested the Fisher Solution 2.0. To buy time to rebuild the fleet.

Marine Force Design update. I'm not against the Marines aligning more closely with the Navy. But I do not like Force Design. 

Is NATO's strategy to secure Baltic Sea underwater cables with space backups just going from the frying pan into the fire?

Russia launches large-scale nuclear exercises. To be fair, with their shattered ground forces stuck in Ukraine, nukes are the only way to protect their Far East from China. We fixate on interpreting Russian nuclear threats to us. But the West is not the only recipient of those messages.

If China is edging toward an EP-3-type incident with Australian aircraft, action is needed: "Australia must prepare for the possibility of crisis or conflict; not to invite it, but to deter it. And if deterrence fails, we must be ready to respond. Australia cannot afford to become the desensitised boiling frog."

Ford (and all of its escorts?) was ordered to the Caribbean Sea.

The impact of the AWS oops raises the question of whether the Internet can be physically attacked. The search for web efficiency has taken over from the early web's resiliency. Never mind hackers. How many crucial pieces of the Internet need to be blown up to take it down?

Maduro supports a rogue's gallery of anti-American groups in America. And don't forget Hezbollah. Which is why I wonder what our objective is. 

Sh*t got altitude: "The Lithuanian military said two Russian military aircraft briefly entered the airspace of the Baltic EU and NATO country on Thursday evening. In response, two Spanish Air Force Eurofighters stationed in Lithuania were scrambled." 

Ukraine's Jager Brigade.

A partition of Ukraine would not solve the problem and perhaps create more. And it rewards aggression. But in reality I doubt Ukrainians are willing to die to liberate all the territory after 44 months of death and destruction. Before the war, I felt partition was possible. Just don't recognize Russia's conquest.

Putin thumps his chest and flings poo: "A British judge on Friday sentenced five men for their roles in an arson attack in London that authorities say was masterminded by Russian intelligence as part of a wider campaign of sabotage and disruption." More Storm Shadows for Ukraine is an appropriate sentence. 

Could American Marines in the Caribbean be used to seize one of Venezuela's islands in order to allow a rival government to establish a capital on Venezuelan soil? Slightly expanded thoughts here. (I found a loophole for my self-imposed three-lines-of-text-on-my-editing-screen limit.)

A video on the small UGV hype and reality. I was not fooled into flinging panties. At best they are the first crawl. And even if they eventually run, they cope with stalemate--not break it. Face it, the cost to make them work may make them too expensive to treat as expendable.

Strategy provides an ode to drones. I'm not against them. I think they are useful in a combined arms fight. But information is the key to their success and other means of attack are probably superior. As for ship defense, fight fire with fire?

Interesting takes on Russia's naval threat to Britain. NATO chief Rutte's mocked Russia's fleet. I think NATO can crush it. And I suspect Russia's fleet is intended to maintain the security of its SSBN bastions. Russia's fleet poses a missile threat, but that's an air defense problem. But yes, the Royal Navy is fragile.

From the "Well, Duh" files: "Hamas racing to entrench itself in Gaza[.]" Hamas should be careful what they wish for.

Arguing for British mass and endurance over raiding for the Baltic Sea theater. Fleet and marine implications. Tip to Palmer. 

Didn't we learn in 1991 that low-level penetration isn't safe? "New radar and missile technology have resulted in a 'flattening of the earth' that puts even extremely low-flying aircraft at much higher risk, a Royal Air Force officer said this week." 

The European Union wants a role in Gaza. Be careful, success in Gaza has a lower priority than strengthening the EU. Help from European states is welcome. The EU? Not so much.

Oh, Ireland's immigration problem can surely be ignored--as long as its leadership considers the problems a feature rather than a bug. Will Irish voters insist on a better class of leadership rather than the reverse objective of leaders?

Is America preparing for war against Venezuela? Define "war", please. Still, I respect Admiral Holsey's decision to resign (appropriately quietly to avoid compromising American troops) if he could not follow orders. I wish we'd had more of that before the Afghanistan skedaddle debacle.

"Somalia" at a crossroads? Since 1991 the West has been trying to get Somalia's UN seat to mean something. I think we should recognize regional governments as sovereign until "Somalia" can govern what is left and justify the UN seat.

An "idea" has a "hit list". Well, that's a biased term. But the signal is given to the more violent and/or unhinged members. These people are insurrectionists and terrorists. Tip to Instapundit.

I had English language visitors from Beijing, London, New York, Bangkok, and Singapore--all on identical computers--viewing my home page, published works, and sources and methods pages. All within seven minutes. On Saturday. Of course, Trump is traveling in Asia. Hmm.

Thick, Beautiful Armor Plate?

Actual battleships (BBs) are hardly going to return to the Navy. But the question of passive protection surely must be a matter for discussion.

Battleships for the Navy? 

“I think we should maybe start thinking about battleships,” Trump said, adding that he had spoken to Secretary Phelan on the matter. “Some people would say, ‘No, that’s old technology.’ I don’t know. I don’t think it’s old technology when you look at those guns.” 

No. Another platform-centric warfare ship? 

But it sounds like Trump is simply talking about real passive armor and not actual BBs.

When we also get electric armor, get back to me on making surface ships able to take a hit from some of the incoming and keep fighting.  

As for anti-ship guns? Absolutely. Depending on the Definitions Section. And defensive auto-cannons. Or something more exotic.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: DOD photo from the article.

Letting Leaders Learn From Mistakes

A zero-defects oversight of military leaders discourages initiative and promotes conformity. This problem is being addressed. We've had the time to adapt to lesser enemies. We won't have the time against a peer enemy.

Fingers crossed at this Department of Defense War objective as Hegseth described it:

Third, we are attacking and ending the walking on eggshells and zero defect command culture. A risk averse culture means officers execute not to lose instead of to win. A risk averse culture means NCOs are not empowered to enforce standards. Commanders and NCOs don't take necessary risks or make tough adjustments for fear of rocking the boat or making mistakes.

A blemish free record is what peacetime leaders covet the most, which is the worst of all incentives. You, we as senior leaders, need to end the poisonous culture of risk aversion and empower our NCOs at all levels to enforce standards. Truth be told, for the most part we don't need new standards. We just need to reestablish a culture where enforcing standards is possible.

Basically, Hegseth doesn't want to lose a Patton because he is too crude for polite society.

I've long worried about this zero-defects culture in our leadership. I cited the problem a quarter century ago when I advocated more Army division headquarters in Military Review. One justification was providing more promotion opportunities to lessen the zero-defects mentality:

More divisions might also diminish officer-corps careerism and fear of failure evident today, which is exacerbated by competition for prized positions in the 10 divisions.

I hope this effort works. Failing or looking stupid--or lacking certain social refinements--shouldn't kill a career if you learn and lead. You should train the way you fight because you fill fight the way you train. I don't want timid officers more afraid of failure or giving offense than they are eager to win.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Shoot Missiles on Sight, Shoot to Kill, Keeping on Shooting

Space Force wants the ability to detect missile launches before the heat signature reveals the launch. With that capability, perhaps missiles could be destroyed or disabled during--or even before--launch. 

Space Force: 

"Our missile defenses have done a good job during the most recent conflicts, but most of those are focused on terminal engagement, and we want to be able to push that engagement to the left and eventually left of launch." ... 

In theory, this collaboration means that while Space Command provides persistent surveillance and tracking through space-based sensors, allowing early detection of moving missile launch platforms, Special Operations Command operates covertly on the ground to gather intelligence on missile forces or conduct direct actions to neutralize launchers. Meanwhile, Cyber Command adds the capability to infiltrate or disrupt an adversary’s missile command and control networks via offensive cyber operations, potentially preventing launch orders from being executed.

Left of launch means before launch. Layered defense in depth has long been the goal. Every step of the kill chain must be attacked.

Strikes on launch sites are the obvious means of that left-of-launch capabilities. As are strikes on production or storage facilities.

Israel and Ukraine showed how special forces can contribute to defense in depth against missiles and long-range bombers. But can that capability be integrated into day-to-day operations rather than long-planned missions?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: I forget where I got the Missile Command gif. On the Internet, no doubt.

Artificial Intelligence Could Ef Up Far Faster Than Mere Humans

Should we worry that artificial intelligence (AI) will act like the F**k-Up Fairy on cocaine?

 AI is fast. But you can't really count on it:

In a recent Air Force experiment, AI algorithms generated attack plans about 400 times faster than human staff, a two-star general told reporters here at the Air Force Association’s Air, Space and Cyber conference. The catch? Not all the AI-generated plans would actually work.

And that was just the relatively straightforward task of matching available aircraft and weapons to a target list. We're not even talking about maneuvering.

If large language model AI is just "probabilistically linking words and sentences together without considering meaning" then at best this is giving conventional wisdom the AI stamp of approval. 

When I contemplated inserting AI into command and control when it is corrupted by enemies, I wrote:

The speed of FUBAR could be simply awesome.

But even a working AI as it is now constituted can produce poor plans incredibly faster than even idiot humans. 

Still, what if you had five AIs generate plans and only examine the plans that are nearly identical to the plans generated by all the other AIs? Would that weed out just the bad plans or would it knock out good plans, too? 

If we can use "AI" to filter, organize, and manage the flood of information commanders must face, commanders could exploit information as the key to battlefield success. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Will Europeans Answer the Call to Arms?

Europeans seem willing to spend on defense again. But Europeans don't seem as willing to fight for their defense again. Materiel without men is just a lot of stuff the enemy captures.

Yes: 

The exceedingly slow recovery of the German army is especially frustrating because Nato is not actually short of air or naval forces. What it lacks are ground forces, soldiers more simply, or rather soldiers actually willing to fight.

Germany isn't the only laggard. And Poland can't do it all. But Germany as the strongest economy should be the European leader in ground force rearmament. 

Europeans have to fix their weak defenses on a broad front. NATO already has air and naval superiority over Russia. Ground forces and the ability to sustain them in combat are the most vital weaknesses to address. Yet the Europeans seem to prefer to invest in anything but ground forces.

This weakness is why I proposed (in this Army article) Army Cadre Brigade Combat Teams to aggregate the tiny bits of European NATO ground forces into meaningful maneuver brigades. That isn't the solution to Europe's ground force shortage. But it would be better than nothing and would help fill the gap in capabilities.

Capabilities the Germans don't seem eager to provide the manpower to staff. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: Photo from my Army article.

The Winter War of 2022 Loses Its "Special" Status in Russia

Both Russia and Ukraine struggle to recruit troops. But Russia is seriously losing troops at an unsustainable rate. Could the cure be worse than the disease?

Russia continues to crawl forward amidst local Ukrainian counter-attacks that at least temporarily regain some ground and inflict more losses on the invaders. The casualties are enormous and Russian efforts to replace losses struggle to keep up:

Overall, Frontelligence Insight analytics see a major trend across the Russian army: rising sign-up bonuses, expanded recruitment from those held in pretrial detention and growing pressure on conscripts to sign contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry and be sent into Ukraine.

“All of this suggests that Russia is struggling to sustain recruitment via traditional monetary methods. If this trend continues, the Kremlin will face a choice between resorting to drastic measures such as broader mobilization or confronting the same manpower shortages that have been a problem for Ukraine’s military for the past two years,” the analysts said.

Russia is easing its way into sending non-contract soldiers to fight in Ukraine, undermining the distinction of being in a so-called "special military operation" that is in no way an actual war:

The Russian Cabinet of Ministers’ Commission on Legislative Activity, on October 13, approved a Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) draft amendment to permit the Russian military to use Russian reservists from Russia’s “human mobilization reserve” (see definition below) in expeditionary deployments outside of Russia without an official Kremlin declaration of mobilization or a state of war. 

That targeted reserve force is an active reserve force whose members receive compensation and have training requirements rather than being in the vast pool of former soldiers. Russia may also be able to round up volunteer units inside Russia. Will this be enough or will Russia have to mobilize the vast pool of former soldiers?

Remember, Russia's rhetoric and pressure on NATO is not a sign of Russian strength. Russia is losing. And the chest beating and flinging poo drones is part of an effort to build a Potemkin Village of Russian strength and inevitable Russian victory. 

Resistance is not futile. 

Which army breaks first? 

UPDATE (Thursday): Russia will get its foot in the door of feeding reservists into the meat grinder:

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced plans to deploy active reservists to protect infrastructure in the Russian rear, in part to obfuscate likely Kremlin efforts to prepare to deploy reservists to combat in Ukraine in the future.

Will Russians be fine with this change?

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. 

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section. 

In case you missed it on Substack: Is the Last Gaza War Going to Be the Last War in Gaza?

In case you missed it on Substack: Will the Air Force Get an F-21?

In case you missed it on Substack: Blue Water USVs

In case you missed it on Substack: Russia Aids Chinese Air Assault

Let's hope the people decide the government is the cause of problems: "After war with Israel and the United States, the Iranian government and people are reconsidering what they want and how they will get it." That's the path most likely to keep Iran from pursuing nuclear weapons.

China doesn't like it that Australia and Papua New Guinea are pushing toward--but not quite there yet--a defense pact. 

UGVs have potential: "In the last twenty years there has been tremendous evolution of small unmanned ground-based robots." But so far I'm not impressed. 

Japan's 2025 defense of Japan report: "The international community is now facing its greatest trial since the end of World War II." And this time Japan is on our side. 

Campaigning season is over, I guess: "Marine Rotational Force-Darwin (MRF-D) Marine Air-Ground Task Force (MAGTF) 25.3 completed its six-month rotation and is now returning to the U.S., according to the Australian Defense Department." It took a long time to build up from its small beginning.

Interesting that Qatar wants to train its F-15 pilots in Idaho away from Iranian view. I'm amazed that some thought Qatar was getting an actual "base" here.

Containerized MASH. Well, whatever the modern name is ...

Threat response: "NATO will kick of its annual nuclear-deterrence exercise Steadfast Noon on Monday with what will be among the largest number of participating aircraft in recent years." Good. Putin likes big booms. 

NATO says Russia's Mediterranean Sea naval presence is waning. At best, Moscow's squadron would have led a short but exciting life. 

HMS Amagemnon submerged for the first time.  

Assessing the Domino Theory. My view is that America's ten-year fight in South Vietnam prevented important dominoes in Southeast and South Asia from falling. We bought time to strengthen those teetering dominoes. And the fall of communism from Eastern Europe into the USSR itself is evidence.

I've hoped for the fall of both regimes for a long time. I'm wary of claims that collapse is near. The Sick Man of Europe weakened and lasted centuries.

Sure, China's rare earth minerals export squeeze will backfire. In the long run America will replace reliance on Chinese rare earths--that aren't actually rare--toxic processing. Much depends on whether or not China needs it to work in the short run only.

The U.S. is talking to Ukraine about providing Tomahawk cruise missiles. I've heard that ground-based launchers are scarce so this won't happen soon. But I find it hard to believe Ukrainian engineers couldn't jury rig some rail launchers to get them in the air.

The Army wants its short-range air defense to evolve to a pallet-mounted system that can be put on any vehicle with a flatbed.

The Army Prepositioned Stock (APS) program is being revised. The Army is moving away from afloat APS and needs to figure out where in INDOPACOM it can go. Just don't be targets for PLA missiles.

The manufacturer of the Army M7 rifle has lightened it my nearly a pound.

Note to AP: Israel's military victories and military might have gotten us to the point where we can think about Middle East peace. 

That's great: "Denmark will buy 16 additional F-35 jets, invest in air defenses and maritime patrol aircraft and add to its fleet of Arctic-ready patrol vessels[.]" Some armored vehicles are on order. But what about more ground units? 

Thailand has too many problems to use its military superiority to defeat Cambodia in a war. But clashes over where the border is can continue.

The U.S. is working with Israel to catch up with China and Russia on AI military use. 

The next steps for peace in Gaza. Basic problem? Many love Hamas because they kill Israelis far more than they claim to love Palestinians. Don't forget Plan B, which harnesses Hamas being Hamas.

Will tensions between Germany and Poland blow up the European Union? They should focus on being NATO comrades where the relationship is narrowly based on shared concerns about Russian aggression.

Will a crew-less UH-60 with front clamshell doors and 25% more cargo capacity keep helicopters relevant for the Army? 

Building counter-small drone counter-measures. I believe the dramatic success of small recon and suicide drones was caused by entering a counter-measures vacuum over the battlefields of Ukraine. Capabilities neither side has will reduce that impact, as well as new systems, tactics, and practices. 

Super-soldier helmet is "an artificial intelligence-powered modular system designed to integrate command, control, and battlefield awareness into a single, lightweight architecture for US and allied forces." Great. As long as someone with a big stick can't sneak up on you and club you to death.

Nukes were new. Is shipbuilding really appropriate for a "Manhattan Project for Ships [that] would elevate shipbuilding to the level of a strategic imperative, coordinated at the national level[?]" Out of my lanes. I'm seriously just asking.

Render unto Xi what is Xi's and unto Xi what is God's: "If Xi Jinping’s rule of China is so fragile that he feels mortally threatened by independent religious institutions, it’s hard to see how any Western nation can trust his word on anything." 

Remember, Hamas promised to suspend killing Jews. Killing fellow Gazans is still okey dokey in their book. Tip to Instapundit. 

BOOM #5: "President Donald Trump said Tuesday that the U.S. military struck another small boat off the coast of Venezuela, killing six people." What is the ultimate objective?

A disturbing lack of urgency from a peacetime CONUS entity and troops overseas under fire: "If you're a kid at Tower 22, you're looking at your watch. Back here, we're looking at calendars."

The Army wants new smoke screens. Yes, I mentioned the need for obscurants the cited author addressed as one means of battling persistent battlefield surveillance and FPV drones.

Pretty much? And we assume recon will detect threats in time? The new infantry squad vehicle can haul troops through pretty much any terrain in any conditions, but there’s a couple big things it can’t do: protect soldiers from an ambush or allow someone to provide cover in the event of one." I do not like the ISV. 

Russia is raiding the already inadequate civilian medical system to cope with high military casualties. One result is that civilian medical personnel are fleeing to the West. Now both civilian and military medicine is inadequate. 

Iran may be disarmed with assets that can reach Israel, but the AI-assisted propaganda war between Israel and Iran rages.

China is escalating its subliminal offensive against the Philippines in the South China Sea. 

The importance of Greenland for North America missile defense. Forget the invasion talk. America isn't going to do that absent a Chinese takeover. The point was to emphasize obscure Greenland's vital defense role. 

How America reached the first step to peace in Gaza. Basically, when America and Israel started to take Vienna, they took Vienna. True peace requires a victory first, otherwise it is just a chance to reload. Much must be done yet. But I'm saying we've got a shot. 

Ukraine's drone campaign in the Black Sea. I don't see this as a Ukrainian sea control victory but as an A2/AD success against a Russian navy that calculates it can achieve nothing at sea that would be worth the price Ukraine would impose. 

Obviously, the Sainted International Community® won't get its panties in a twist over Sudan because Israel can't be linked to the war. Westerners use precision weapons to avoid civilian casualties. Others use precision weapons to increase civilian casualties.

The day after the Gaza "genocide" ended, as recorded by Gazans. To Hell with the Hamas propagandists. Tip to Instapundit. 

"How the Houthis rule in Yemen: Prisons, a personality cult, and pilfered food aid[.]" I've mentioned how NGOs are the Houthi logistics service.

Does China really have the edge in an economic war? We can mine and process rare earths if we want to. Will debtors renounce their debt? How much economic pain can the Chinese people endure before blaming the CCP. Regime change is a feature (elections) in the West. The CCP won't see things that way.

155mm LRMP punch: "A controlled artillery round that can hit targets from 120 kilometers away in GPS-denied environments was successfully tested at U.S. Army Yuma Proving Ground, Arizona." It's not cheap. But the God of War is pleased. 

Huh. Who knew powdered sugar is a smoke device ingredient? 

25th infantry Division says putting drones into squads. Said one brigade commander: "I certainly want to enable squads, but I also don’t want to encumber squads. … There’s enough stuff for these guys to do." This is exactly what I was saying! Of course, not as fast as the Booker getting cancelled after this post.

Huh: "The Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) saw a decrease in airspace violations from China and Russia aircraft during the first half of Fiscal Year 2025 compared to the prior year." Good. Unless it is a maintenance stand-down prior to commencing military operations. 

Germany ordered 20 more Typhoon fighters. 

Western subs concerned? "The People's Liberation Army is building an “invisible net” across the western Pacific, a five-layer, seabed-to-space sensor architecture known as the Transparent Ocean strategy" How robust is the network? Could the PLA want a SSBN bastion near their coast?

Building the prototype of the M1E3 Abrams tank. It has an APS that could be adapted for counter-drone work. And it is lighter. But what about passive protections? 

There's a lot of BS in this article extolling asymmetric means of fighting. The Peninsular War included regular British-led troops. Afghanistan wasn't an American battlefield defeat. Insurgent victories generally seem not to be from insurgent "asymmetry" but an occupier decision that winning the COIN isn't worth it.

Huh: "The PLA also appears to be strengthening its training for time-sensitive strikes against Taiwan. As Taiwan expands its asymmetric weapons, such as coastal anti-ship missiles, the PLA counters by using long-endurance unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for reconnaissance and strikes along Taiwan’s coast." 

The CCP exerts more control over PLA operation. Perhaps "Xi Jinping’s dissatisfaction with recent personnel management has eroded trust in frontline officers, prompting tighter central oversight in a domain once defined by initiative and flexibility."

The return of landmines marks a darker era for Europe? Seriously? Bad guys kept and used them. What is happening is good guys are remembering their value in a dangerous world. In the hands of good guys, landmines can help stop invasions. How's that for a "global norm"? A little nuance, please. 

There is talk of a Western no-fly zone over western Ukraine. Why not a Flying Tigers 2.0 mercenary fighter squadron based in Ukraine? 

Hamas turns on Gazans. Well, duh. Hamas may not be able to fight Israel, but Hamas always has an advantage over unarmed civilians. 

Iran starts to rebuild proxies: "Earlier this year the Iran-backed Houthi rebels moved some of their operations from Yemen and crossed over to Africa. The Houthis assisted local Islamic terrorist groups in Somalia, Eritrea and Ethiopia. " 

Russian AWACS no longer scan Ukraine: "While both the Ukrainians and Americans have defeated the A-50U, this Russian AWACs is still effective against Chinese and other foreign aircraft. Russia is saving its A-50Us for aircraft it can safely detect and track." Hmm.

Ukraine likes its latest ally--Trump. If you had paid attention to TDR over the years, people who side with Ukraine (as I do) would not have panicked over what Trump might do.

Will Iran turn to China to arm it? Well, Russia needs everything it produces, so it makes some sense. If Iran has the cash. Unless that really angers Arab states that export oil to China. Still, all the more reason to want the mullah regime in Iran to collapse. Or at least starve it of revenue.

Huh: "China is rapidly expanding its influence through the Belt and Road Initiative, investing $25 billion in Central Asia in early 2025 alone." I love it when a plan comes together. Russia should worry.

New American invasion route to Canada delayed until early 2026. Unless the delay is from Canada installing Dragon's Teeth obstacles, I'm just kidding.

1st MDTF: "The U.S. Army’s first unit to receive hypersonic weapons will get a battery’s worth of rounds by the end of the year[.]"  

That is NATO's job! "EU countries have five years to prepare for war, according to a military plan that will be presented by the European Commission on Thursday and was seen by POLITICO." The EU has a higher goal than resisting Russia. 

Because the Taliban have been shooting at India's (secondary) enemy, Pakistan. I mean, really, this is from the Well, Duh files, no? 

Britain to put the UK back into the G-I-UK Gap to counter Russian submarines with Atlantic Net. 

Sh*t got real. But how? 

India to MiG-21s: Buh bye and don't let the doorknob hit you in the ass on the way out. India has taken way too long fixing this issue.

Sweden plans to design and build a new fighter jet. 

Trump plans to meet with Putin in Hungary following his WDC meeting with Zelensky. 

The U.S. picked up survivors from the sixth drug vessel struck recently.  

China's shipyards are prolific, too: "China is now building its first nuclear powered aircraft carrier. The new ship appears to be similar to the latest class of American carriers, the Fords." But what will China use its carriers for? And if for war, is the solution actually simple? Can America execute that "simple" plan?

Nationalizing America's defense industry would be the most effective way to kill its innovation capacity. Which might be a feature and not a bug of those advocating it. We needed the military-industrial complex to win the Cold War. We still need it.

Oh? "With everything that is going on in the world today, there are precious few good news stories. With America’s help, Syria has the potential to become one." What's with the appeal of finding "tame" jihadis? Syria's Islamism in One Country approach is just a ploy to get time to survive and arm up.

Has the Army's reduction in branches like artillery, air defense, and engineering show the Army doesn't really appreciate conventional combined arms operations? Affording an Army able to win post-Cold War made sense. But if that adaptation lingers on with a failure to appreciate combined arms, that's very bad.

The Army is converting 25 infantry brigades (active and Guard) to Mobile Brigade Combat Teams. I have concerns. 

This is true: "America must better understand our enemies. The U.S. cannot bribe them to be our friends." Not until after we defeat them, anyway. I will say that modernization simply hasn't yet liberalized China as we intended. But I will also say it is time to stop helping China's economy and technology. 

Iran's mullahs order more cow bell.

Fellow Islamists: "Turkey has reportedly agreed to supply the Syrian regime with military equipment in exchange for Damascus allowing Ankara to target Kurdish militant groups on Syrian soil, anonymous Turkish officials told Bloomberg on Friday." The Kurds have problems.

Russia's "dark fleet" that gets is petroleum and coal exports past Western sanctions.  

Ukraine's USVs get better. Ukraine is to be commended. USVs are useful. But NATO ISR is the key. And I don't see Ukraine as driving Russia from the Black Sea as much as Russia deciding no objective is worth risking its ships; or added nothing that other assets couldn't provide more safely. 

A pickup truck with a 105mm howitzer. Is artillery cheapness and speed of "shoot and scoot" more important than range and shell weight? 

Hmm: "A constellation of classified defense satellites built by the commercial company SpaceX is emitting a mysterious signal that may violate international standards, NPR has learned." 

China is expanding missile facilities in occupied Tibet with the apparent targets of India and Taiwan. I've certainly noted the anti-ship angle that India needs to worry about. Extending their reach from China proper adds to the worry. 

Xi's PLA purge continues. Can Xi trust the PLA? It's interesting that the political commissars don't weed the officers out routinely to keep them clean and trusted. But the purges continue.

Can Russia spin its absolute failure to protect Assad into a deliberate effort to speed his fall for the benefit of the Islamists who overthrew his regime? Will the Islamist government of Syria reward Russia by letting it keep and use its bases in Syria? 

I still keep hearing that the Trump administration loves Putin and Russia. That take is quite insane. 

Dealing with Chinese theft and intelligence operations in America.

Huh: "[Naval drone] warfare does not change the need for large naval task forces able to quickly move thousands of kilometers to the combat zone. Drones have had little impact on ship to ship warfare but have revolutionized operations in coastal or riverine operations inland." What was I just saying? 

Maduro mobilizes his military and militia. After Maduro has destroyed Venezuela, will those armed people defend him or attack him as long as they are mobilized? Or will someone shoot at one of our planes or ships and unleash American strikes on Hezbollah/drug cartels? Tip to Instapundit.

Is Trump wrongly using war on terror authorization to use force to target drug cartels? Well, I'm not sure presidents need Congressional authorization to fight enemies. That isn't to say Congress can't impose its will. And if you want a formal declaration of war, be careful what you wish for.