I've Got a Really Bad Feeling About Taiwan

Taiwan's reserves system that Taiwan's small active army absolutely must have is a joke. Celebrities buy exemption and don't think they are the only ones. Or that this is the only problem.

People keep claiming the Taiwanese are island Israelis or Ukrainians. Well that's not reassuring when you consider Taiwan's ability to resist a serious Chinese invasion:

Taiwan’s military service regime, which runs alongside its conventional military, faces accusations of failing to prepare conscripts for an actual war – an alarming situation against a drumbeat of threats from its giant neighbor.

On Monday, authorities indicted 28 defendants. Prosecutors allege that, between 2016 and early this year, a four-person ring helped 24 healthy men dodge the draft by faking high blood pressure to gain a medical exemption, netting a total of 7.63 million Taiwanese dollars ($255,000). 

At least 11 celebrities are now under investigation.

I've long worried about the Taiwanese willingness to fight when the going gets tough. Providing Taiwan with this or that weapon or insisting Taiwan adopt a specific approach are secondary to soldiers willing to endure bombardment, lift their heads during lulls, and kill the invaders.

Honestly, just throwing PLA troops across the Taiwan Strait might be enough to panic the Taiwanese into capitulation.

UPDATE: Timely post:

One thing that prevents a Chinese attempt to take Taiwan by forces is corruption. In China and Taiwan corruption is pervasive and crippling. This is regularly demonstrated every time China or Taiwan dismiss officers for corruption.

China at least has fear of the CCP to motivate them to fight. That might be enough of an edge.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: Picture from the article.

The Winter War of 2022 Makes Me Wonder About Ukraine's New Corps

As Ukraine holds the line with its drones and artillery, starving the front of infantry, Ukraine also reorganizes some of its forces in new corps formations. What's that for? Outlasting the Russians? Or attacking?

Ukraine has been trading space for time since its failed summer 2023 counteroffensive, inflicting heavy casualties on the Russians. I just don't accept that Ukraine's strategy is to hold on until Russia falters first. At some point, Russia's grinding offensive may take enough to seriously hurt Ukraine:

Russian forces recently advanced northeast of Pokrovsk and may attempt to advance further toward Dobropillya as part of a mutually reinforcing effort to envelop Pokrovsk and bypass Ukraine's fortress belt in Donetsk Oblast from the west in the coming months.

While Russian exhaustion could be how the war ends, I can't believe Ukraine's commanders and their NATO friends aren't trying to figure out how Ukraine could seize the initiative somewhere and launch a counteroffensive that will achieve a decisive victory on one section of the front.

Or at least a significant counter-attack to achieve a significant victory over those offensives such as the Poktrovsk region and drive the Russians back from several months worth of advances.

Ukraine is now building corps formations for their army to coordinate their forces better. The shift is dramatic: 

Currently, the Ukrainian forces comprise 131 maneuver brigades of various types, supported by 15 artillery brigades, four army aviation brigades, [and] 14 antiaircraft brigades or regiments[.]

The brigades are self contained brigade combat teams, really, not reliant on a division for many assets that a divisional organization would provide. Command above the brigade level is changing:

Command and control (C2) above the brigade level is ad hoc in the form of operational tactical groups, operational strategic groups, and operational groups. The 9th and 10th army corps were formed in 2023. Ukraine is currently expanding to 18 corps headquarters to provide command and control for its many brigades, including the 3rd, 11th, 12th, 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th, 18th, 19th, 20th, and 21st Army Corps, plus two in the Air Assault Forces, one in the Marine Corps and two in the National Guard. These appear to function similarly to Russian corps, providing C2 for several brigades, not divisions, as with NATO corps.

Command and control above the corps will presumably remain ad hoc. 

These are like the 2023 counteroffensive corps that were really large divisions by NATO practice. The current plan:

Ukraine had added a new army corps to its ground forces, each of which encompasses four or five mechanized brigades, plus other battalions and units. 

This article said:

A standard corps will be made up of five brigades, with one additional formation containing seven. Ukraine’s Ground Forces will contain 13 corps with two Air Assault corps, one Marine Corps, and two National Guard corps. 

Not just mechanized brigades. Some will be armored and some infantry, plus air assault and marine corps. It seems like the corps mostly have four maneuver brigades, so perhaps that larger count includes some other type of support brigades. Or maybe that's maneuver brigades. I think the 2023 corps included six maneuver brigades, if memory serves me.

Ukraine deployed three corps in their summer 2023 counteroffensive. Those were apparently disbanded when that failed and Ukraine lost the initiative. Which makes me think that despite their value in coordinating defensive battles, the main benefit in the current flowing-lava stalemate situation is on offense. Which could be very important if Ukraine is to seize the initiative anywhere.

As for the place, I keep getting drawn back to the Kherson front:

I continue to view the Kherson front as potentially the most promising location for a successful Ukrainian offensive. Yes, the Dnipro River is a major obstacle. But Russian logistics are not as robust that far west. At least until Russia completes a railroad through occupied Ukrainian territory north of the Sea o Azov.

And like the Ardennes in 1940 and 1944, I don't believe the Dnipro is impassable. It is impassable if adequately defended. Terrain is an obstacle--not a thinking enemy.

As I've written, Ukraine needs to do a lot to overcome that obstacle.

And toss in the seemingly dormant front where the Kakhovka Reservoir used to be (snipped from an ISW map).

This is the satellite image:

After two years of rebuilding its army after the failed summer 2023 counteroffensive, could Ukraine be preparing for a river assault at the distant end of Russia's supply lines? With perhaps supporting operations across the now-dry Kakhovka Reservoir that may by now be able to handle the movement and supply of significant forces? 

On that issue, what about all that land emerging and drying out in the former Kakhovka Reservoir after Russia destroyed the dam that formed it? A new forest has emerged rapidly:

The forest’s growth rate is phenomenal. It’s hard to imagine that just a year ago, this place was bare ground, and now, in May, there are trees almost five meters tall.

Is the ground solid enough for vehicles? Could roads be pushed through there to open up a new avenue for Ukraine to launch a counter-offensive? 

The Kherson front remains at the end of lengthy Russian supply lines. And far from the Kursk front and now Sumy front where Russia is stretching the active front.

And consider Ukraine's long efforts to interfere with supplies to Crimea. Then add in Ukraine's F-16s which if concentrated on the Kherson front might provide enough air defense to protect bridges and ferries across the river.

Has Ukraine had enough time to digest and apply the lessons of its Kursk Incursion from last August? 

Hell, the widely discussed suspension of American aid flowing to Ukraine in order to restock American ammunition reserves could be part of a deception operation:

I'll start off with a few things at the top and then I'll get to some of your questions here at the end. But let's start off with Ukraine because I'm sure that a lot of you have a lot of questions about that.

The Department of Defense continues to provide the president with robust options regarding military aid to Ukraine, consistent with his goal of bringing this tragic war to an end. And at the same time, the department is rigorously examining and adapting its approach towards achieving this objective, while also preserving US military readiness and defense priorities that support the president's America First agenda.

Not so much questions as assumptions. The hiccup in some American military aid is widely interpreted in the media as helping Russia. But Trump has expressed his frustration with Putin's long delaying tactics of real talks: 

US President Donald Trump acknowledged Russian President Vladimir Putin's unwillingness to end the war in Ukraine on July 3 as Kremlin officials continue to demonstrate a critical lack of interest in good-faith negotiations with Ukraine.

Bringing the war to an end could now be seen as depending on Ukraine defeating Russia. We'll see.

I know I'm connecting dots to make a picture I want to see. But I don't believe that the planning efforts of NATO and Ukraine have settled on hoping the Russians exhaust themselves first and then flee from Ukrainian territory.

Surely Ukraine's new corps will have a role in an offensive that will take place somewhere. Where else could it be? 

UPDATE (Tuesday): Note, too, what the Pentagon spokesman said about future military aid:

Parnell said the department will not provide updates regarding quantities or types of munitions provided to Ukraine, or timelines associated with that materiel[.]

Which helps Ukraine maintain secrecy about what capabilities it is building. So maybe this is a dot in my picture. 

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.  

In case you missed it on Substack: Who Declares War?

In case you missed it on Substack: Losing Afghanistan Was a Choice

In case you missed it on Substack: Live Fast, Die Young

In case you missed it on Substack: Difficult is Not Impossible

Iran has embarked on a "season of traitor-killing" following the brief air war. Iran will spot far more "traitors" than it managed to spot Israeli or American aircraft in Iranian air space. Tip to Instapundit. 

The British have initiated contracts for the future SSN-AUKUS attack submarine.

Iran says the US must guarantee no further strikes to being talks. I say talks can't be the core of your now-shattered air defenses. I say productive talks are the way to guarantee no further strikes.

US infantry brigades are to get more loitering suicide drones. 

If China wants to turn the South China Sea into a bastion for a sea-based SSBN nuclear deterrent, they will have problems. If we see a sub there in a sea control campaign, we'll sink it. That factors the pucker, as I noted in this post welcoming a Russian bastion to keep their paranoia within tolerance limits. 

Russian saboteurs were arrested in Germany. Because Russia wages war on the West. 

Ukrainian partisan operations in Russian-occupied Ukraine and Russia itself. The article says America won't provide satellite intelligence about targets inside Russia. Even if true, there are other sources, I'd bet. 

Yes, there is a rift between Russia and China that could be exploited. 

What's missing in "we are failing to pivot to Asia" pieces is they never admit we have other interests under attack; doesn't admit we reduced troops in Europe and the Middle East; and never explain how more assets packed into bases will help in INDOPACOM. Face it, for many it's an endless pivot to nowhere.

Indeed, without American leadership to help allies who carry more of the defense burden, we risk "leading from behind" fiascos where enemies defeat allies or allies look to their own interests at the expense of America's. 

Could America have carried out Ukraine's Operation Spider's Web? Probably. But why would it when it can carry out Operation Midnight Mountain? 

Fooling themselves in Euro Disney: "Europe vested its hopes in what might be termed the 'debutante party' school of diplomacy: that bringing a rogue state into the club of respectable nations and showering it with all the benefits of trade and aid could fundamentally change the nature of the regime." Obama, too. 

The "good cop/bad cop--same cop" model of Trump's diplomacy.

If you wonder how Nazis could be so proud of their murderous hate. Tip to Instapundit. 

Azerbaijan-Russian tensions certainly seem high since Russia shot down an Azerbaijan passenger plane. 

Japan is working on getting America to consider the East China Sea, South China Sea, and Korean peninsula region as one theater. While it makes sense for America and Japan, more locally interested allies may see this as committing them too far afield. Herding the cats out in INDOPACOM is hard.  

America struck Iran because Iran was close to nukes and Israel softened up Iran's air defenses. But the notion that the Ayatollah Khameini was standing in the way of deciding to make nukes is ludicrous. He was just the latest claimed faux moderates containing the fanatics if only we'd work with him.

Can the Army get a relatively cheap ground-launched, hypersonic weapon? 

At least the ship gets a decent interval before decommissioning.

The Army's Pacific commander doesn't think china could successfully invade Taiwan. Given that job one is deterring an invasion, I have doubts about that claim.

An Australian destroyer conducted a FONOP around the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. 

F-35s will finally get external fuel tanks to extend their range. 

Egypt earns from the Suez Canal "$10 billion a year. Egypt and Iran are enemies and reducing Suez Canal income is a win for Iran, which supported the Yemen rebels for more than a decade to make such an interdiction possible." The Houthis still shoot. Will Egypt shoot back? 

But is it good enough? "While many Chinese officers were found to be corrupt and incompetent, there were exceptions, but not enough to command the number of operable ships, heavy weapons, and aircraft available. Corruption in the Chinese military is an ancient tradition[.]" Is China trying to appear far?

Without the ability to project power overseas there is no power projection. 

The military provided an update on the threat to American bases and allies in the western Pacific from the People's Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF).

If temporarily shifting a single Patriot battalion and one carrier strike group from INDOPACOM to CENTCOM to deal with Iran is a major temptation for China to attack, we're not strong enough to win that war. I'm calling BS on this one. 

Interesting: "Israel and Syria are holding 'advanced talks' on a bilateral agreement halting hostilities between the countries, a senior Israeli official told The Times of Israel on Monday." Could Syria's rulers survive jihadi anger for making a deal with Israel? Tip to Instapundit.

"Cognitive warfare" in Russian aggression: "Russia is not weak, but it is weak relative to its goals." 

Either Iran was bluffing it would mine the Strait of Hormuz despite harming itself or Iran was preparing to mine the Strait of Hormuz. 

Good: "To better protect its armor from top-down attacks by drones and, to a lesser extent, anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM), the U.S. Army wants to buy more than 1,500 passive Top Attack Protection (TAP) add-on armor systems for its tracked combat vehicles." The ATGM problem was long known.

I'm in favor of this, because better to be ready than not. But what are the Red Storm Writhing Russians going to do? Bleed on our Atlantic SLOCs? 

Israel used electronic warfare against Iranian drones in the 12-Day War. 

Could soon-to-be-retired A-10s packed with anti-drone 70mm rockets go to Ukraine? Add in a secondary ground attack role, of course.

Japan's tests a naval rail gun.

I'll take "News from the 7th century, Alex." 

Welp, hope that doesn't bite us in the ass. 

If we need them soon and don't have them, that's bad: "The Pentagon has halted shipments of some air defense missiles and other precision munitions to Ukraine due to worries that U.S. weapons stockpiles have fallen too low." But Ukraine needs them now. Are there alternative supply sources?

Behind Russian boasting about who's "next" after Ukraine, the rot expands: "Russia has accelerating problems with labor shortages and millions of Russians working in the untaxed and unregulated informal economy." 

Poland arms up. But what drone counter-measures will allow all their armored vehicles to fight successfully? 

The tail gunner is long gone, but can small drones protect American aerial tankers? 

Canada underestimated the cost of buying F-35s. But is not buying it really a matter of Canada believing spite will protect it? Is calling Canada the 51st state juvenile? Sure. And it was funny the first couple times. But grow up, Canada. Nukes and drones may break your bones, but words will never hurt you.

Enemies seek advantage using our own legal system to hamstring us. 

BRITAIN: We don't need a written constitution like you Yanks to protect our freedoms. How's that working out for you?

That's a revealing statement: "Macron’s succession problem[.]" Democracies have elections to decide that. Monarchs and autocrats have successions. 

Huh: "[The EU's] guarantees to America’s First Amendment has enough exceptions to the right to free speech as to effectively nullify its existence." Yeah, that Vance fellow was waay out of bounds, eh? It's actually horrifying.

Remembering failed predictions of the Chinese economic juggernaut. I was not persuaded by the panty-flinging.

Iran may be trying to dump Russia for China to get better military support. China doesn't seem interested in playing along. Is China so dominant that Xi thinks Russia and the even weaker parts of the Axis of Steal are unworthy of notice as they try to maneuver for advantage? 

25th Infantry Division artillery is looking at integrating FPV suicide drones. It makes sense since each is essentially a round of ammunition.

True: "'We can’t give weapons to everybody all around the world. We have to look out for America and defending our homeland,' Sean Parnell said in his first standalone briefing Wednesday." But don't make it more likely we'll need to use those weapons to defend the homeland.

Buck Rogers could not be reached for comment: "The Department of the Air Force has suspended plans to use an isolated Pacific island as a test site for landing rockets as it considers alternative sites." Sanity asserts itself! Nip this in the bud before the Stupid Dial is turned to 11.

The Army is relevant for INDOPACOM. Although he downplays the Army's core role, he's preaching to the TDR choir (both in Military Review). History is clear.

The Russians are just casually bastards. 

For years I argued that the charge Russia interfered in the 2016 election to help Trump made no sense. So yeah, they gave their boss what he wanted. Shamefully, there was no peaceful transfer of actual power in 2017. Tip to Instapundit.

Unprepared for war: "The United States has told its NATO allies in Europe that they are on their own. [p] The problem is that China is not the only threat. There are also potential problems with Russia, Iran, North Korea and Islamic terrorists in the Middle East, Africa and Europe." Projecting power is weak.

Big ears in Cuba: "Cuba has become the central asset for the new Chinese signals intelligence/SIGINT site that gathers information on American military operations throughout the southeastern United States."

Fingers crossed: "A U.S.-led resolution of the [Congo-Rwanda] conflict profoundly affects this century's critical geo-strategic rivalry: America vs. Communist China."

Upgrading the F-22. 

Army to test stockpiling hub in Australia. The Army is the service responsible for establishing the land backbone for joint logistics. And that includes some aircraft and vessels for the final deliveries.

Seriously, is it just me who is amused and confused that while we are told the Arctic Sea will soon be ice-free year round that we desperately need icebreakers? 

The U.S. thinks it set back Iran's nuclear program by up to two years. I've long said strikes only buy time and that ultimately the Iranian people have to overthrow the mullahs. 

This comment on America's strike on Iran is nonsense: "Paradoxically, Donald Trump, the most pro-Russian US president in living memory, may have done more than his predecessors to expose Russia’s vulnerability." Trump doesn't insult Putin. Trump would like a peace deal. That is not being pro-Russia.

Big year for Guyana? Can America help Guyana become an energy powerhouse in the Western Hemisphere without destroying itself as so many countries with corrupt governments have?

Happy Fourth of July! I remain extremely proud to be an American. If your pride fluctuates depending on what party is in power, you have pride in your party and not America.

 

We know so little about ancient civilizations in South America. Jungles especially have covered up a lot of what was there before Old World diseases spread on this side of the Atlantic. 

It's not poison gas, but it is banned now: "Russia is increasing its use of chemical weapons in Ukraine, according to findings from the German Federal Intelligence Service (BND) and two Dutch intelligence agencies." 

Sometimes the determination of a few willing to run to the sound of the guns and lay down their lives can salvage some good in a system-wide military failure. God bless them. 

Huh: "An unidentified North Korean man crossed the heavily fortified land border separating the two Koreas and is in South Korean custody, the South’s military said Friday." 

China's fleet. And South Korea's fleet. Which is real and spectacular.

Huh: "F-22 Raptor stealth fighters appear set to be the first operational airborne controllers for the U.S. Air Force’s future Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) drones." 

I think that's right: "Post-World War II Germany and Japan show that regime change can work. The problem in Afghanistan and Iraq was less regime change than misguided nation-building and wishful blindness to Iranian and Pakistani interference." I touched on that distinction regarding Afghanistan. 

Should America be preparing for helping Cuba build a new government after communism? We should certainly be thinking about coping with the collapse of the government there.

Small suicide drones aren't the silver bullet: "Today, operating with a mix of low-cost and high-end systems is the new combined arms warfare." Preaching to the TDR choir, he is. 

Pekingology: "Xi’s downfall has been rumored before. But never have we seen the recent purges (and mysterious deaths) of dozens of People’s Liberation Army generals loyal to Xi; all replaced by non-Xi loyalists." And is Kremlinology robust enough?

It took 18 months for Ukraine to plan its daring drone raid on Russian air bases deep inside Russia. 

A review of India and Pakistan in the wake of the Pakistani terror attack in Kashmir and the subsequent India-Pakistan military clashes. Hate + nukes + proximity = sky high pucker factor. 

The Marines don't want Tomahawk cruise missiles now.

Somebody has apparently been reading by stuff for at least the last twenty years, regarding China and Russia. But invasion isn't the only Chinese option. I had to add in one of the author's sources to a Substack post already scheduled for Tuesday.

Gotta say this from the British embassy in WDC was pretty funny. Tip to Instapundit.

The MiG-31 continues its long tradition of existence. 

War: "For over a year Russia has been attacking NATO nations clandestinely with disinformation and sabotage using a combination of specialized diplomats and sleeper agents [who hire criminals for the dirty work] who have long been living in Europe."

France says China is trying to undermine the sales of France's Rafale fighter. Is China trying to prevent India from buying more? Or is France just trying to bolster sales (Feared by China!)?

Sure: "Iran plans to resume indirect nuclear negotiations with the United States, but the conditions that Iran will reportedly present would require unspecified guarantees that the United States would not strike Iran." That fits my view of the original awful deal as Iran's best air defense system.

If Latin Americans don't like America as much because it prevented Iran from getting nuclear weapons, I just don't give a damn. They'd have just blamed us for a regional nuclear war if we did nothing. They can get over their butthurt. 

Can the weak and divided Lebanon state end Hezbollah's status as a state-within-a-state after the damage Israel inflicted? 

Putin is Russia's Main Enemy

Putin claimed he was rescuing Ukrainians when his military parades crossed into Ukraine in February 2022. But when Ukrainians responded with Javelins rather than flowers, the Ukrainians became a Nazi threat. Then a NATO threat. Then a battle against Satan himself. Now? Putin says NATO is unable to challenge powerful Russia no matter what NATO does!

Oh? 

Putin claimed during his June 19 meeting with foreign journalists at SPIEF that Russia does not consider NATO rearmament (in line with US President Donald Trump's objective for Europe to shoulder more of the burden for collective security) to be a threat as Russia is able to ensure its own security and is constantly improving the Russian military and Russia's defensive capabilities.

If no threat is big enough for great Russia to deal with, why did Putin invade Ukraine citing the NATO threat? Because he was worried non-existent NATO army corps could be 500 miles from Moscow? Well, now NATO is 50 miles from St. Petersburg since Putin's aggression drove Finland to join NATO! Next thing you know, he'll deny the Nazi and Devil threats. And the Great Patriotic War 2.0 will be officially won!

Bravo! 

Face it, Putin wants to be known in history as Vladimir the Great. He'll kill as many Ukrainians and Russians as he has to in order to get that. Especially when the alternative now might be dangling by his heels. 

#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Killing Drone Swarms

America has put cheap 70mm rockets with laser guidance on F-15E fighters. That's certainly a nice start. I've thought bigger on this capability.

This is interesting:

We now have a picture showing a U.S. Air Force F-15E Strike Eagle down-range in the Middle East with an air-to-air loadout that includes six seven-shot 70mm rocket pods, as well as four AIM-9X and four AIM-120 missiles.

Plus the internal gun. 

Imagine how many more of those guided 70mm rockets could be carried on what I called the A-Whacks plane:

The rocket can go nearly 7 miles when fired from aircraft. A lot could be packed into a commercial airliner converted to an air defense aircraft, right? There could also be a smaller number of longer-range sophisticated air-to-air missiles carried.

Such a plane based on land air bases could provide protection for warships sailing close to shore where massed drones and rockets could be fired at the ships.

And they could be used as a mobile reserve to protect ground targets as well, which both Israel and Ukraine demonstrate is necessary. They'd certainly be cheaper than using fighter planes and lots of advanced missiles.

Call it A-Whacks. 

I'll pause while you applaud. Really, I'm flattered. Don't. Stop. Okay, don't stop.

A large-body aircraft would be cheaper to fly than the equivalent number of fighter planes. Or, while it lasts, an A-10--linked to external sensors assets--which can carry a lot. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: Photo from CENTCOM via the article. 

The Pilot is the Smallest Aircraft Logistics Burden

Are collaborative combat aircraft (CCAs)--a.k.a. large fighter drones--that fight with piloted fighters too much effort to be worth it?

Are large fighter drones a maintenance and logistics hog and so a waste of resources better spent on suicide drones working with pilot-controlled aircraft? 

The challenge of sustainment emerged from the earlier study. CCAs may be relatively small, but the Increment 1 aircraft are about the size of the smallest crewed jet fighter ever used operationally, the British Folland Gnat of the 1950s. They are aeroplanes that need runways, fuel, parking and maintenance. Let’s call them robo-gnats.

If they were much smaller they would have less range and less payload. Range is ‘critically important, and always an issue,’ Kunkel says. Higher payload translates to an ability to put more weapons in the air, another vital attribute. 

That's a big problem. If the only logistics advantage robotic fighter drones provide is lack of aircraft crew, is the concept a failure? I wonder if the same calculation scales down to my longstanding issue of small reusable fighter drones?  

I suspect the CCAs will get smaller, perhaps merging with the scaled-up and more complex FPV drones that won't be able to roam low over a battlefield where soldiers have tactics and counter-measures to contest the "brown skies" low over the battlefield. The Air Force will look different but will remain the Air Force. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to.

NOTE: Image from the article.

Sea Power is Ultimately About the Land

Life came from the sea, but humans live and work on the land. Security on the land may require security on the seas, but sea security must then be translated into land security to be meaningful for people.

 A former American Navy officer defines sea power:

First, the virtuous cycle. Mahan spelled out the classic definition of sea power, defining it as a “chain” connecting industrial production at home, with merchant and naval shipping, with commercial, diplomatic, and military access to harbors or naval stations in important trading regions. Commerce, ships, and bases are shorthand for sea power. 

Commerce is king for Mahan. All three links in the sea-power chain—domestic, nautical, and foreign—must be solid for the maritime enterprise to prosper.

The author reviews the changes in American strategy as sea power challengers faded after World War II and the Cold War and rose again in the post-Cold War world (or the Russian Decline Era, as I call it). America is again in need of focusing on gaining control of the sea instead of simply exploiting it.

Which is good. And vital.

But sea power isn't about simply defeating hostile threats at sea. It is about using the seas to benefit from the sea lines of communication to other land regions beyond the ports you have access to. Where the people live and produce things for commerce.

Just saying don't forget the land power at the end of that sea power chain unless you just want to sail triumphantly off of a hostile shore.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: The view going ashore on D-Day, June 6, 1944.

Don't Let Them Follow One Ruler

America should not want Europe to unify through any means other than NATO on defense issues.

That's an interesting question:

If America Abandons Europe, Will the Continent Fragment or Unify?

That's a major "if". America is not abandoning Europe. Trump affirmed America's commitment to the alliance as its members pledged to increase defense spending. America has long worked to strengthen the European side of NATO. America has a good reason to keep Europe out of hostile hands.

Further, the "if" is practically an EU wet dream. The EU wants America to leave Europe in order to unify Europe under its rule. 

America won't like Europe unified under the EU. Which is why letting Europeans unite through the EU rather than through NATO would be a major mistake for America to make.

As I advised the British, a unified Europe is bad. Even if we start out thinking it is good for America. And (back to the initial article) how can it be good with this kind of continental attitude?

Europe increasingly positions itself as a global power, balancing between the United States and China[.]

Balancing between a monstrous and aggressive China and an America that has fought to preserve their freedoms? Seriously? 

Kill that monster before turns against us.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

The Winter War of 2022 Returns to Center Stage

After a brief high-tech air campaign against Iran, punctuated by intercontinental American B-2 stealth bomber strikes on Iran's most important and best protected nuclear sites, the world returns to the mud and death of the war that won't leave the party. But you go to blog with the stalemated war you have and not the shiny air war you wish you had.

The 12-Day War (will that stick?) was waged and concluded in the time it takes Russia to organize a motorcycle assault by 9 guys who are pretty sure what the business end of their rifle is. Speaking of low-tech, bloody, stupidity:

In Mad Max fashion, Russia’s primary vehicle of choice has become the motorcycle, or the 21st-century Dragoon. A Russian soldier must drive as fast as possible with no mistakes to avoid getting hit by a drone.

While we gazed at the skies, Russia remained in its same predicament:

Russian forces in Ukraine are stalled and too weak to launch another offensive, even a small one.

It will get worse. The Russian economy is collapsing because of disinvestment. 

I think this is directionally correct but Russia has means to cope. For a while. I have no idea when the slow erosion accelerates and suddenly becomes apparent. Are Russian soldiers really surrendering more often? Big if true. But I'm sure Russia is erecting a Potemkin Village of strength to frighten us into giving Russia a better deal than it can get on the battlefield.

Europeans are standing up to Russia by deciding to rearm NATO and by pledging more military aid to Ukraine. America stands pleased with the increased European defense effort and is no longer discussing distancing itself from NATO and its Article V common defense clause. American surveillance and intelligence continues as does previously committed military aid. I suspect America military aid will continue even if it won't be aid because it is paid for through some mechanism on paper--and maybe in reality.

With Putin's semi-trained organ grinder nuke monkey, Medvedev, waving its nukes about, Russia talks big about its next victims. Which seems like the brochure for the shiny sports car Putin wants even as Russia's cheap imported Chinese motorcycle sits at the curb, ready for glory in Ukraine. 

Yet Russia is ramping up efforts to Russify the Ukrainians in Russian-occupied Ukraine. Is this a parallel effort to the war or a reaction--either pessimistic or optimistic--to the war effort? 

What is happening behind the scenes in the openly and flamboyantly confident Russian military is unknown. 

UPDATE (Monday): Entering stage right, NATO:

Putin’s refusal to negotiate an end to the war (partly because of the fragmentation of NATO) has been replaced by the need to consider what NATO, now including the U.S., will do. With the recent NATO love fest, Putin might be forced into the negotiations Trump wanted. 

UPDATE (Tuesday): Ukraine can still win. 

But unless Ukraine deploys a lot more tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, infantry, and artillery to seize the initiative and drive the Russians out, that victory relies on the collapse of Russia's army and/or economy leading to Russian soldiers fleeing back to Russia. 

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

NOTE: Photo from Forbes.

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.  

In case you missed it on Substack: Has Russia's Army Changed Little Since 1945?

In case you missed it on Substack: Little Green Men Don't Threaten Estonia

In case you missed it on Substack: A Non-Kinetic Blockade?

In case you missed it on Substack: New Boss Same As the Old Boss

"France warns of escalation of war with Iran", and reassured everyone that obviously France would not be the one to do so.

Have people been beaten with the green energy clue bat enough to change course? Tip to Instapundit.

Sunday afternoon and already communists were out protesting to protect Iran. Those black-on-yellow signs are signature colors for the ANSWER scum. 

Whenever a top Russian speaks--as they did on America's attack on Iran--I want to drop MOPs on them. But business before pleasure.

We built at least 20 GBU-57 MOPs and used 14 on Iran. One source said the total was 50. So plenty left.

If Iran attacks our forces in CENTCOM in response to Midnight Hammer, we should hammer Revolutionary Guard targets, especially naval assets. The IRGC is a pillar of the regime. 

China is a-hole: "A Chinese flotilla of cutters, warships and maritime militia harassed Philippine government vessels resupplying fishermen at Scarborough Shoal on Friday."

China works to catch up with American UUVs.  

The Army is working to get a prototype for a longer-range M109-52 self-propelled howitzer. The God of War demands an offering. 

Should officer and NCO ranks be merged because experienced NCOs report to inexperienced new officers? Because civilians can't enter the system mid-career? The former has always existed. For the latter, restore the old parallel specialist ranks that survive today in the Army as Specialist/Corporal E-4s?

Arguing withdrawing 4,500 troops from South Korea risks war with North Korea if there is a war with China over Taiwan. Losing South Korea sure ends its power projection role. 

I can't imagine Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz because it shuts down their oil exports, too. And then America and its Gulf allies and allies from farther afield will open the strait while bombing Iran's oil export infrastructure. 

I keep hearing we failed at nation-building in Iraq and Afghanistan. I basically reject that we were nation-building. We had to leave a friendly government or what's the point of regime change? Is Somalia anarchy really the objective? But you know what was a failed nation-building attempt? Obama's Iran nuclear deal.

Canada is being strategically stupid out of spite. The EU won't defend Canada. The EU just wants the power to make this deal.

Hmmm: "An Azerbaijani man suspected of espionage had thousands of photographs of a U.S.-Greek military facility on the island of Crete stored on various devices, authorities in Greece say." A similar arrest on Crete of an Iran-linked Azerbainani man was noted.

I suspect talk of the MOP attack on Fordow penetrating air shafts rather than drilling through rock is misinformation to disguise the weapon's capability by pointing to a construction error for the success. Just my speculation, of course. 

Thank goodness Lincoln didn't have to cope with such a law in 1861.

Monitoring sailor health in real time for the ability to perform duties.

Impressive, but I judge on outcomes and not inputs: "Last month the U.S. Navy carrier Truman/CVN-75 carried out the largest series of airstrikes in naval history, using nearly 60 tons of missiles and bombs." Will the Houthi stay down just glancing nervously at the skies? But a crippled Iran sure helps.

At the risk of stating the obvious, yeah, Golden Dome would be a big deal--if it works. 

Sure: "The Army is expecting to take on a larger role in protecting the homeland as the Defense Department develops the Golden Dome missile defense architecture, a service official said recently." Before World War I, coastal defense was a major Army mission.  

LOL: "When and if President Trump addresses the NATO conference that begins in The Hague today, I trust that he’ll announce the withdrawal of the US from the alliance." Because he criticizes it? Oh, please. Face it, America exiting NATO is an EU wet dream. SO THAT HAPPENED: Article V & NATO rearms.

Suspiciously light on who is carrying out the syringe attacks in France. 

Well that's interesting: "U.S. lawmakers want an ammunition production and storage facility at a former American naval base in the Philippines."

U.S. Space Command general discusses Golden Dome. This should help.

To be fair, strength is way down from peak strength in those commands: "any conversation about reducing U.S. troop presence in U.S. Central or European Command appears to be on hold." 

A large Chinese UUV that can carry four torpedoes or eight naval mines. 

Sanctions aren't a silver bullet: "Economic sanctions against Russia are not working, at least in the short term." But they do cause problems that waste Russian resources. And coping isn't thriving.

Unrest in our major non-NATO ally, Kenya. 

It's bigger! It's badder! Ladies and gentlemen, it's too much for Mr. Incredible! 

Restoring the Marine Corps as America's global response force. I had thoughts on that in Joint Force Quarterly in 2000 (pages 38-42).

Unless Australia is content to be a vassal of China, it's leaders had best stop using Trump as the monster under the bed for domestic political advantage and forge a relationship with the American president.

China has an export version of its J-35 stealth fighter. What does China leave out? Or do they just sand the skin and hit it with hammers prior to delivery?

Central Asia is a hotspot for financing and recruiting jihadis worldwide. Is the hidden good news that the Arab world is starting to contain its jihadi problem? 

Ah, that leaked "low confidence" DIA assessment on the American strike on Iran that minimized the effects assumes Iran retains enriched uranium it can process to make some bombs. So the infrastructure is more than set back a few months. Honestly, I worry Iran's backup facilities are in North Korea. 

The Guardian, illustrating their article with ANSWER protesters, says Israel and America can't remake the Middle East with bombs. Sure. But Iran with nuclear bombs sure could destroy the Middle East. Baby steps, people.

It's the only military threat, so ... "NATO General Secretary Mark Rutte assessed that Russia is the largest existential threat to NATO members today and that Russia is preparing for a protracted war with NATO." The EU could take on the non-military migrant threat instead of undermining NATO to push America out.

The Russian army has become a motorcycle gang club.

Big conventional wars are won with factories. A whole lot of truth to that. Although Soviet casualties versus American casualties in World War II demonstrate that there different ways to use what the factories produce.

Possible: "A reporter asked Trump during a press conference at the NATO summit on June 25 whether it is possible that Russian President Vladimir Putin has territorial ambitions beyond Ukraine, and Trump responded that 'it's possible'" As in you can't rule out sanity breaking out in the Kremlin.

Good: "Fort Lee in Virginia will become the first base to be named after a Buffalo Soldier." Really, honoring Pvt. Fitz Lee with the same name as a Confederate general is the ultimate victory dance. 

I had assumed one or two of our SSGNs would have participated on a strike on Iran, and one did.

Marines remain in the Philippines in a serial "rotational" presence. 

Late in the Cold War it was "kill people and break things", if I recall correctly: "At a basic level, America's Air Force exists for [a very simple] capability -- 'to kill people and blow sh-- up[.]'" 

No advantage lasts forever: "The rise of quantum sensing is could someday overcome the advantages of stealth aircraft[.]" 

The Turkish PKK has decided to disarm and disband. Is the 40-year separatist campaign over? 

Better inside the tent pissing out: "North Korea has extended the service obligation for new recruits from eight to ten years for men and from five to seven years for women. This change is imperative because North Korea is running out of military age men." The 2021 reductions are thus partially reversed. 

It took a lot of years of preparation to launch that brief air raid on Iran's nuclear weapons facilities.  

Well that's a take: "Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has said Israel was "crushed" during the two countries' brief war[.]"  

Fleet counter-drone weapons tests.

Maybe: "While establishing its sphere of influence over Europe will remain Russia’s priority, Russia could go to war to support China in the event of a U.S.-China conflict in the Asia Pacific." Russia can't help and hold off a rearmed NATO. And does Russia want China in the Arctic? Russia might stall its entry.

Ve haf vays of making you shut up. Can you even believe Vance expressed concern? 

Iraq's fragile stability. You can't argue Iraq isn't better than it was before 2003. But America must wage the Phase IX war in Iraq. 

Gotta love that Islamic struggle for personal growth: "More than 200 gunmen on motorbikes have attacked a Niger army base near the border with Mali, leaving at least 34 soldiers dead, the country's defence ministry said." No, really. You have to--under threat of death.

Via Instapundit, did Israel agree to end the Hamas War? It would exile Hamas (and other jihadis?), allow Gazans to emigrate to certain countries, and involve Arab states running Gaza. This is an opportunity if details can be agreed on. 

I'm pretty sure this is from the "Well, Duh" files.

The Air Force F-15EX force will grow from 98 to 129 planes.

Ukraine's Black Sea operations against Russia are shaping American and NATO ideas about naval warfare? I bet! One lesson is that NATO's ISR network has enabled Ukraine to operate against Russia in the Black Sea. Best get one of those, eh?

Break up the Air Force into separate services for "Tactical Air, Space, Strategic and Lift"? Seems a bit ... much. 

U.S. and South Korean troops conducted live-fire exercises 20 miles south of the DMZ. 

Bravo Putin! "Germany will more than double its military spending by the turn of the decade under a new defense spending proposal approved by the government this week." Strategersky. 

The foreign volunteers helping Ukraine fight and cope. But no firm number on volunteers who are fighting. I suspect the world is less significant than North Korea's expeditionary force. 

Iran has spent decades boasting of its power. This year exposed its weakness. Israel's 2024 raids on Iran's air defenses reminds of America using no-fly zone patrols to take out Iraqi air defenses in the months before the March 2003 invasion.

Astroturfing Western separatism from deep in mullah-run Iran. Tip to Instapundit. 

LOL: Israeli and American strikes on Iran's nuclear infrastructure "may have hardened Iran’s resolve to pursue a nuclear weapon, not abandon it[.]" Iran's mullahs wanted nukes and was willing to wreck Iran to get them. Obama didn't persuade them. But now they really want them? The Stupid is is strong in this one.

I bet the vast majority are innocent: "Iranian authorities have carried out a wave of arrests and multiple executions of people suspected of links to Israeli intelligence agencies, in the wake of the recent war between the two countries."

Is he genuinely seeking close ties with Israel? "The new Syrian president, Ahmed al-Sharaa was previously an Islamic terrorist but was determined to establish a lasting and legitimate government." It hard to believe he isn't pretending to be moderate even as his base murders Christians. I want to be wrong.

I'm certainly willing to consider we did not get everything nuclear related in Iran. I assume we want Iran to give up surviving enriched uranium in talks. But destroying it isn't off the table for America or Israel. Perhaps Iran is trying to find an overseas sanctuary for it.

Armed groups are outside the deal: "Both sides of the conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo have committed to disarming and disengaging their alleged proxies." But maybe it will help. 

Meanwhile in the Axis of El Vil. 

Reflecting on the Korean War begun 75 years ago. South Korea has come a long way.

No Lots of Blood for Oil Lithium: "Russian forces have taken control of a lithium-rich area near the village of Shevchenko in Ukraine’s Donetsk region[.]"

Russian ammunition depots blow up without needing Ukrainian special forces help. 

Aid: "France is also spending a lot of money to triple their munitions production. This will enable France to send Ukraine more munitions while restoring French munitions reserves depleted to supply Ukraine." Ukraine really likes the French Caesar truck-mounted 155mm artillery system. 

Spanning a water gap: "Military units from four [NATO] countries on Saturday carried out a large crossing of troops and heavy vehicles of the Rhine River in Germany during combined drills."