Why Do They Hate Us 2.0

Murderers have reasons to murder. Idiots have reasons to understand the evil murderers.

Idiots, useful: 

In a signal of either the gullibility of young Americans or a sinister turn in pro-Hamas propaganda, or both, the latest figure to capture the imagination of TikTok users is the terrorist behind 9/11, Osama bin Laden. It’s tempting to overlook this absurdity, yet the “rediscovery” of a bin Laden letter justifying the murder of innocents is a newsworthy development.

By “rediscovery” we mean the resurfacing in the wake of the Gaza war of bin Laden’s “Letter to Americans” of 2002. It sought to justify the attacks of 9/11 and more terrorist attacks against the West. It did so, in part, by condemning America’s policies in the Mideast, including its support for Israel, as harmful to Muslims.

Not to lessen their idiocy or moral depravity, but I remember a lot of Americans saying things just like that starting on the afternoon of September 11, 2001. Remember the "why do they hate us?" essays that tried to explain we deserved it? It's just that they were so outnumbered that they learned to keep their hatred of America subdued--for a while.

I really am a glass is half-full kind of man, eh?

I have never forgotten what jihadis did to us. And want to do again. The real question is why do we hate us? Or more specifically, why does such a sizable fraction of our people hate America?

But to be fair to the kids, we also had a president who understood bin Laden's murderous rage.

UPDATE: Our enemies still want to kill us:

Note that for all the silly talk of how American military action creates jihadis, that America overwhelmingly helps friends battle jihadis without directly fighting them. That talk is a variation of the "let the Wookie win" theory of enemies. And on fighting terrorists, not all are Islamist terrorists.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

China's Century of Humiliation Meets Xi's Century of Restoration

China has remained focused on reclaiming what was once their territory on the Asian mainland.

I don't recall the name change news but noted the revived territorial claim: 

Earlier in 2023, China’s Ministry of Natural Resources ordered that new maps must use the former Chinese names of its lost territories in what is now Russia’s Far East. Vladivostok, home to Russia’s Pacific fleet headquarters, became Haishenwai; Sakhalin Island became Kuyedao. Then in late August, the ministry released a map that showed the disputed Russian territory of Bolshoi Ussuriysky Island within China’s borders.

I've long ridiculed Russia's pointless hostility toward NATO while the China threat to Russia and America grows. 

As much as I want to stop Russia in Europe, I do not want Russia to break up while doing that because I'd rather have China focused inland to compel Russia to contain China. 

Sadly for Russia, Putin's decision to destroy Ukraine is preventing Russia from pivoting to Asia with a friendly NATO in their European rear. I mean, it's not like Russia has been ignorant of the strategic situation. But Russia thought it would get a short and glorious war that wouldn't bother the West very much after the initial show of outrage.

While many writers say China has ended its claims on Russia, that isn't quite true. China suspended its claims in a the treaty that expires. When the treaty ends the claims snap back.  

The author of a book reviewed here says that despite friction, the two have never fought a major war. But Russia sure did take a lot of Chinese land in the 19th century without a major war, eh? Does China think that is no big deal? I don't know because the review simply says Russia and China respect their common border.

Really? China is obsessed with reclaiming land lost in the Century of Humiliation yet Russia is exempt from their objectives?

It's interesting that China unveiled those map changes just as Russia got bogged down in Ukraine. Truly, Putin has a strange way of bringing glory to Russia.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

Crazy Pill Overload

Advocates of aircraft carriers really need to distinguish between that at which carriers excel and that which will sink them.

This is half right about America's super carriers: 

Aircraft carriers have hung on at the top of multi-domain warfare for more than 80 years, and a new weapon hasn’t even been conceived of yet that could replace it.

Ah, a long tradition of existence! Well let's move on then, shall we?

No, damn it. Once more into the breach, dear readers.

Carriers have two roles: power projection and sea control. The large aircraft carrier is superb for the former. Not so much for the latter in the face of networked missile and surveillance networks--which I think can replace the carrier for sea control missions. 

Do carriers send the message to enemies of "don't mess with us"? 

The Navy sent that message on Friday by releasing pictures of USS Gerald R. Ford and USS Dwight D. Eisenhower operating in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea.

The problem is that by sending the message with carriers the enemy is given an opportunity to strike them. Are you sure an enemy will get the right message when our multiple acres of "sovereign American territory" show up off their coast?

Even if a message is sent as we intend, Eisenhower and her escorts immediately headed for CENTCOM after the photo. But hey, imagery is how we usually send the message in the Mediterranean.

I don't argue that we don't need super carriers. I argue we don't need nearly as many as we have. And should use the money saved for other sea control systems.

UPDATE: Oh? 

The Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group (IKECSG) completed a scheduled transit through the Strait of Hormuz into the Arabian Gulf, Nov. 26.

What was the carrier doing inside the Persian Gulf? That's either stupid or a sign we're pretty damned sure Iran won't attack. At least we didn't stay long. 

UPDATE: Exactly:

Destroyers armed with Tomahawks, for instance, can also strike from hundreds of miles away from the Persian Gulf. Therefore, while the Persian Gulf’s Strait of Hormuz enhances and does not limit offensive strike capability for US warships, it does raise questions about ship-defenses and potential vulnerability to Iranian mines, shore-launched missiles and small boat attacks.

IKECSG entered the Persian Gulf to send a message to our allies and to Iran. Don't assume enemies don't welcome an opportunity to send a message.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

The Winter War of 2022 Freezes?

The tempo of military operations appears to be slowing. Can Russia rebuild enough to resume a large-scale offensive? Can Ukraine build up its army and air force to reclaim land in more than small amounts? And will the Russians and Ukrainians called on to fight and die keep going into the field? 

Fighting continues along the front with small-scale attacks and minor changes in the front line. Both sides attack and defend. Ukraine had seemed determined to maintain its counteroffensive over the winter despite the poor weather and lack of more weapons. But will it? Can it?

As the battlefield reached stalemate in the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, both Iran and Iraq waged "wars of the cities" trying to kill civilians with unguided ballistic missiles or artillery when close enough. Russia has already bombarded Ukraine's cities. Ukraine is starting to return the pain: 

Moscow airports were forced to shut on Sunday as Ukraine launched its most intense drone attack on the Russian capital for months.

An effort to seek a new way to defeat the enemy when current armies prove unable. Consider the Ukrainian drones an entirely new front, I suppose.

I don't discount that Russia's population advantage over Ukraine could yet lead to victory using human wave assaults. I recognize that efficiency is not the same as victory. 

But because of Western support for Ukraine, Russia has not yet managed to rebuild an equipment advantage to match their population edge. In World War II, Stalin had massive Allied economic and military help with that production advantage. And as I like to point out, Iran--with only the population edge with much better Islamist fanaticism (Shia version) morale--saw their own ground forces break after battering against Iraqi defenders again and again in the 1980s Iran-Iraq War without breaking through (to reach Jerusalem through Iraq, the mullahs pledged).

After three years it gets harder to maintain the public's willingness to fight. So the year 2024 could be the last year of efforts to win a battlefield victory in this war. Much depends on Western military aid deliveries this year. 

Under Putin it seems likely that after a ceasefire Russia will simply regroup and plan for the next war. Perhaps with a timeline based on Putin fearing his own mortality--or ability to hold power--to get the credit and "the Great" honorific tacked on in the history books.

But the best-case scenario for the Winter War of 2022 after a ceasefire is, as I speculated early in the war, the aftermath of the short Winter War of 1939-40. Perhaps Russia's casualties are similarly so high in the ongoing war that the Russians decide it isn't worth it to resume the war. After all, Russia knows it has bigger threats elsewhere.

UPDATE (Monday): We know they don't like being there. How much of this is a soldier's right to bitch and how much is an indicator they might do something about their condition? 

As the war grinds into its second winter, a growing number of Russian soldiers want out, as suggested in secret recordings obtained by The Associated Press of Russian soldiers calling home from the battlefields of the Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk regions in Ukraine.

The intercepts were from January, after all. In fact the Russian soldiers have continued to sit there and die. Or their replacements if the recorded soldiers died. 

Who knows? Maybe high casualties are the feature--rather than a bug--of Russia's war methods to tamp down the bad morale. Kill off the troops who have soured on the war and replace them with new troops who have yet to realize what they got into.

UPDATE (Monday): A Ukrainian Abrams tank was "spotted" near the front recently. 

Is this to divert Russian attention to that spot or to make the Russians think it is a diversion? Or given the weather and slowed military action, is it just for domestic consumption? 

I honestly don't know if Ukraine really depleted their ground forces with their low-level summer offensive. I doubt it. But what do I know sitting so far away?

Also, I doubt the tank's IFF system is useful (if it is even installed on this export model) because I doubt Ukraine' vehicle fleet is equipped with it. 

UPDATE (Monday): This is not breaking news. It was widely speculated early in the war and even before:

Russia offered to stop its invasion of Ukraine on the condition that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's government abandon its ambition to join NATO, the Kyiv Post reported.

Neutrality talk was in the air almost immediately after Putin invaded.

What does "stop its invasion" mean? Holding what it took? Because I find it hard to believe Putin was willing to withdraw. Or willing to believe any neutrality guarantees about Ukraine. I suspect it was an offer meant to divide Ukrainians and confuse Westerners about aiding Ukraine.

And of course the Ukrainians didn't trust the Russians. Czechoslovakia trusted that losing only the Sudetenland would bring peace. It was just an appetizer before Hitler swallowed the main course. 

Don't pretend we somehow rejected a chance for peace early in the war.

UPDATE (Tuesday): The freeze is also literal:

A cyclone in the Black Sea and southern Ukraine caused infrastructure damage in many areas of coastal southern Russia and occupied Ukraine and is impacting the tempo of military operations along the frontline in Ukraine, but has notably not stopped military activity entirely.

Naval mines could be scattered into the Black Sea, too.

UPDATE (Tuesday): We'll see how much Ukraine--which also endured the storm--can exploit any Russian problems:

A massive cyclonic storm that hit the Black Sea area Monday is a vivid illustration of how weather effects combat operations. With wind speeds of up to 90 mph, it was the equivalent of a Category 1 hurricane. The storm's impact could allow Ukraine to exploit gaps that emerge, even if temporarily, in air and port defenses, sea surveillance, among others. Major logistical disruptions to the war effort are also a given. ...

Another immediate concern for Russia is that the storm apparently wiped out trenches and other defensive lines it has been building up in Crimea. The full extent of the damage, however, won't be known until after the storm subsides.

I'd guess Ukraine's best chance is exploiting problems from the air (aircraft and missiles) where air defenses have temporary gaps.

UPDATE (Wednesday): The head of the Ukrainian military worries that Russia could expand the front to the dormant length of the border if Western arms support withers.

UPDATE (Thursday) It would be nice if Ukraine could exploit this weakness on the Kherson front:

The apparent Russian failure to establish a cohesive command structure among forces defending on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast continues to degrade Russian morale and combat capabilities.

But that requires enough reserves to push across the river; an artillery ammunition reserve to commit; bridges to move and sustain a larger force across the Dnieper river; and more air defenses not tied to defending Ukraine's cities to protect the advancing troops and logistics effort. 

On the positive side, Ukraine seems to have degraded Russian air defenses in western Crimea, which would also help Ukraine commit their air force to supporting an offensive. But I have no idea about what Ukraine has for the other four.

Also, after the Dnieper River dam was blown, the water receded from a lot of land. As that ground freezes, does that open up options for a winter offensive for the side that has prepared to exploit the new frontage?

UPDATE (Friday): I don't know how accurate this is, but it highlights that we should not assume Russia's size guarantees victory:

A recent Russian opinion poll indicates that the number of Russians who fully support the war in Ukraine has almost halved since February 2023 and that more Russians support a withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine than do not.

UPDATE (Friday): Interesting:

Ukrainian forces have blown up the main railway [through a tunnel] connecting Russia to China, in one of the most ambitious strikes deep into enemy territory.

But:

Russian trains have now been diverted over the 35-metre-tall Devil’s Bridge.

So close, but no cigar? 

UPDATE (Saturday): Cigar?

Ukrainian intelligence reportedly damaged another train along a section of the Baikal-Amur Railway on December 1 in an apparent effort to degrade Russian logistics in the Russian Far East.

In addition, Ukraine seems like it is going to improve its ability to handle increasing Russian offensive actions:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi signaled intent to increase Ukrainian defenses and fortifications around the Ukrainian theater, but notably did not include Zaporizhia Oblast in discussions of ongoing and future defensive measures.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

Weekend Data Dump

It's after Thanksgiving so we can justifiably turn our attention to Christmas. Yes, Die Hard is a Christmas movie. And now for something completely different:

Pakistan's military fights to remain in control: "The usual political chaos in Pakistan is expected to abate somewhat after national elections are held in February 2024." Not that politicians are the solution, but Pakistan suffers from the military in control. But I concede that Islamist civilians could make nuclear-armed, Islamist-infested Pakistan worse.

As we marvel at Ukraine dropping explosives from drones, note that in 2009 I reported on the US Army interest in dropping 81mm mortar bombs from drones.

European aid: "The Netherlands is making €2 billion ($2.2 billion) available for military aid to Ukraine in 2024, the Dutch Ministry of Defence said."

Realizing that a long war is going on. Does anybody ever go home by Christmas?

I'd say this could be a brilliant way for China to bypass our border security to launch a bio attack on America. But we have no border security, so ... what's up?

Lysenkoism takes its toll on American science, Tip to Instapundit.

China's subliminal war against the Philippines continues: "China has showed interest in atolls and shoals that are 'closer and closer' to the coast of the Philippines, with the nearest atoll about 60 nautical miles (111 kilometers) away, Marcos said."

And now for something completely different:

 

The Navy's need for combat logistics ships to sustain combat operations far from our shores. Preaching to the TDR choir. The U.S. needs to sustain the Navy overseas and the Army and Air Force, too. Do we have an option to quickly expand the logistics train?

Somebody needs to review their oath to uphold and defend the Constitution.

China's anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) forces try to keep enemies away from its coast. America's will try to keep China's navy from leaving its ports: "Next year, U.S. Army Forces Pacific will deploy new intermediate-range missiles to the region as part of its efforts to deter China from invading Taiwan, its commander said Saturday."

And now for something completely different, President Biden celebrated his 81st birthday:

Sudan: "Foreign military support—which is crossing borders from neighboring Chad, Libya, Egypt, and Central African Republic, and originating from allies as far afield as Russia and United Arab Emirates—is proving sufficient to prolong the war but has not been enough to give either side a sufficient upper hand that could force a definitive end to the fighting." What about the role of humanitarian NGOs?

Rule of law requires responsible leaders who don't mis-use laws with technically allowable measures: "In a joint announcement with the White House, the Department of Energy (DOE) said the federal government would award a 'historic' $169 million for nine projects across 15 sites nationwide in an effort to accelerate electric heat pump manufacturing. The significant level of funding was made possible after Biden utilized the 1950 Defense Production Act (DPA) to increase domestic production of green energy technologies." There is no relation between the act and the action. Shame on the government. Tip to PJ Media.

Via Instapundit, California's largest marijuana distributor has collapsed. California's progressive government could ef up a wet dream.

But no mention of China's slow genocide of Moslem Uighurs in Xinjiang province: "The world must (sic) 'must act urgently' to stem the conflict in Gaza, China’s top diplomat said Monday during a meeting with officials from Arab and Muslim majority nations, as Beijing steps up its efforts to play a role in establishing ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas conflict."

Making friends and influencing people: "Australia’s prime minister has accused the Chinese navy of 'dangerous, unsafe and unprofessional' conduct after an incident in international waters near Japan[.]"

Russia is going to extreme measures to get recruits--including from former republics--and tangible contributions to the war effort rather than admit Russia is at war and go to a full war footing. I assume this expensive effort is just to buy time until Putin is "reelected" in early 2024, after which he can mobilize civilians and raise taxes to fund the war.

Ukraine is facing problems putting new troops into the field: "In a recent essay, Ukraine’s top military commander, Valery Zaluzhny acknowledged that training and recruiting troops was becoming a serious challenge." Western economies can outproduce Russia if the effort is made. But Ukraine hasn't been able to recruit foreigners at scale to counter Russia's larger population. Ukraine, too, will have to go to full conscription to cope.

The war on terror continues: "U.S. troops and partner forces have conducted 387 operations against the Islamic State group in Iraq and Syria so far in 2023, far more than they did in all of 2022, according to U.S. Central Command, or CENTCOM. " But apparently we aren't killing nearly as many. Is that Biden policy? Is this a faux war on terror designed to pump up strike statistics while not angering the jihadis too much? Because that would be futile.

Challenging China's subliminal offensive: "The militaries of the Philippines and the United States launched joint patrols on Tuesday in waters near Taiwan, officials of the Southeast Asian nation said, a move likely to fan further tension with China." Will China escalate to keep pushing?

Island hopping: "Soldiers with the 25th Infantry Division in Hawaii recently wrapped a two-week exercise that included simultaneous offensive attacks and defensive maneuvers for a brigade stretched across multiple islands and hundreds of miles of ocean." As long as the Army doesn't forget that sometimes one island requires multiple brigades on a single island for a protracted fight.

Sure looks like Media Matters conspired against X (a.k.a. Twitter) to defame Musk. More.

Russia's Karakurt-class corvette. Ukraine severely damaged one under construction in eastern Russia-occupied Crimea.

Maneuver warfare is not dead. 

I'd round up the usual Iranian suspects: "Commercial air crews are reporting something 'unthinkable' in the skies above the Middle East: novel 'spoofing' attacks have caused navigation systems to fail in dozens of incidents since September." Additional chaos will be cited to push for a ceasefire before Israel can destroy Hamas. To be fair to Iran, this might be primarily a defensive effort to degrade a missile attack (with potentially beneficial collateral damage), which is what Israel appears to be doing around itself. Tip to Instapundit.

In unfortunate P-8 news: "A Navy plane flying in rainy weather overshot a runway Monday at a military base in Hawaii and splashed into Kaneohe Bay, but all nine aboard were uninjured, authorities said."

More ammunition for Ukraine, but the packages are getting small until Congress authorizes more military aid.

Yes: "Over the last two decades, China has aimed to reduce the American presence in Asia and eventually ease the United States out of the region entirely. To accomplish this, Beijing has focused on weakening U.S. alliances and isolating countries such as Australia and Japan." Herding the cats is America's response to deny China its objective. I think America's approach has been defeating China's approach. But I agree that American economic ties have to rival China's ties to regional states to strengthen our web of bilateral alliances.

Huh, somebody took the "let the Wookie win" strategy and applied it to Israel's war against Hamas.

Via Instapundit, why our troops fight. But do our senior leadership share that?

The Army wants troops to pay for the equipment they were ordered to leave behind in the Afghanistan Skedaddle Debacle. The supply clerks must balance the books. I experienced that mindset although not on that scale and obviously not in war. When I turned in my equipment near the end of basic training, the supply clerk rejected my rucksack straps as too worn. That they were no more worn than when I was issued them was not an issue. My choice was to pay the high price of replacing them, appeal and stay in the military longer for that (hey the clerk wouldn't pay my salary), or replace them. I went to the PX, bought two new right-side straps (that's all they had) and returned to the clerk's window. The clerk spent some time examining them, I suppose debating whether two new right-side straps were good enough. They were. And so I would get out on time. Luckily the clerk didn't notice the helmet strap that was broken when I got it and which I had to MaGuyver to work during basic. Small or large, the clerks will balance their ledgers.

Protests in Russia over young men left at the front.

For the upcoming Army-Navy football game, the Army team's uniform will pay tribute to the 3rd Infantry Division's setting of the Middle East land speed record in 2003. The Navy team will honor the submarine service. Go Army! Beat Navy!

Good: "Northrop Grumman expects the US government to finalize a sale of its Integrated Air and Missile Defense Battle Command System (IBCS) to Poland, potentially worth $4 billion, “very, very soon,” according to a company official." American and other NATO forces flowing through Poland need to be protected.

Consequences: "Seoul is restarting aerial reconnaissance operations at the North Korean border, suspended since 2018, after Pyongyang launched a rocket carrying a spy satellite late Tuesday."

Yes: "'We are seeing some of the benefits of having [US Central Command] CENTCOM looking both at defense of Israel issues and the overall picture in the region,' Hicks said at a Defense Writers Group breakfast in Washington." I did mention it was a good idea. 

Biden may reverse his reversal of a Trump decision about that Iranian proxy: "The White House says it is considering redesignating Yemen’s Houthi rebels as a “terrorist” group after they claimed the seizure of a commercial ship in the Red Sea." Democratic Party love for mullah-run Iran is unrequited. The clue bat hurts, doesn't it?

I've wondered if our new SSBN production run would be extended to replace our soon-to-retire force of 4 old converted (after the Cold War) SSBNs that now carry up to 154 long-range conventional cruise missiles (and able to deploy SEALs). Sure looks like the Navy will stick with its virtual replacement of converted Virginia SSNs that each can carry about a quarter of what each old SSGN carry. Which is a shame, because now the Virginia boats have two missions--hunting enemy subs/ships and land attack. Can we afford less than full attention to sea control these days?

It's blackmail to force the UN and a new national Libyan government to validate illegal agreements made with factions: "Russia and Turkey continue to keep troops in Libya despite agreeing to withdraw their troops. Both nations want to protect their interests in Libya with sufficient guarantees that their economic agreements will be respected."

But Trump is the dictator? "Unlike prior and subsequent presidents, he obeyed court decisions and followed the law scrupulously. Take a look at the Biden era and you can easily find examples where Biden thumbed his nose at the courts whenever he wanted, and he certainly has ignored federal laws with impunity. Think, say, following federal immigration laws, or his disobeying the court on student loan forgiveness." As I've noted, Trump didn't seize power from 2017 to 2021. But next time he will? This is insanity. Get a grip. And look at Biden. Tip to Instapundit.

That this relationship wasn't clear before law enforcement was hamstrung is just stunning: "The two-decade-high level of homicides in the nation since President Joe Biden took charge of the White House has apparently helped to boost those who believe that the criminal justice system is not tough enough on criminals." Tip to Instapundit.

I mentioned this shortly after October 7th: "American warships are likely maintaining a healthy distance from the Mediterranean coastline. Hezbollah—a Shiite militia and major player in the region—is known to operate anti-ship missiles, and in 2006 used them to heavily damage an Israeli corvette off the coast of Lebanon." 

Men who are dead or who have fled don't have children for the Motherland: "Russia has moved in recent weeks to push for the adoption of a number of measures to avert a severe demographic crisis that has been compounded by President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine." Ukraine has a similar problem, of course. As does the West in general, from Asia to Europe.

America responded with an AC-130 gunship strike that killed some of the enemy militia: "Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said Iran-backed militias used close-range ballistic missiles against U.S. and coalition forces, resulting in 'several non-serious injuries and some minor damage to infrastructure.'"

I'm sure Russia is trying to set the region aflame to distract NATO from helping Ukraine: "NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Monday the alliance was concerned by secessionist rhetoric in Bosnia, as well as by Russian influence in the country[.]"

The Western girls who try to kill for Hamas in America. Am I wrong?

Let's hope Elon Musk can prove in court what the technical analysis makes clear about the Media Matters for America part of the covert Bureaucracy-Media Censorship Complex. And note that Musk's "suppression" of some users (i.e., Substack links) is based on perceived business needs and not ideology.

I don't know if this is true or just part of the pressure on Taiwan to feel too doomed to resist: "'The Taiwan question is a matter of national sovereignty, territorial integrity and national unity. So this is something like a life-or-death question for China...there's no room for concession,' said Cui, [the once long-serving PRC ambassador to America] now officially retired." But as Putin showed with his long propaganda against NATO, it can take on a life of its own. Written after Russia seized Crimea from Ukraine, was this prescient about Russia's current dilemma, or what? "The problem for Russia is that by the time they feel secure enough to recognize that China is the real threat to Mother Russia, NATO and the West will be so disgusted with Russia that Moscow won't be able to even hope for our help should China decide that Russia's Far East is really a Core Interest of China that should return to the loving embrace of the Han Empire."

So Capitol Police went undercover at the January 6th protest/riot as Antifa people? Huh. How hard did they sell their faux identities? Tip to Instapundit.

Via Instapundit, Xi Jinping has abandoned economic growth as the foundation of CCP legitimacy for monopoly rule: "Perhaps the greatest threat to China’s economic growth and development is Xi himself. Xi has spent the last few years tightening government control over all aspects of life in the country, including the economy. The regulatory crackdown on large tech companies like Alibaba, which began in late 2020, is a case in point." Is the new foundation repression and control or conquest-based nationalism?

I'm not going to miss that orbital mobile home sitting on cinder blocks. At best it kept NASA's ground infrastructure alive until we can have a real program to get people living off the Earth. Tip to The Morning Briefing.

Ouch: "The White House on Tuesday said Iran may be considering providing Russia with ballistic missiles for use in Ukraine." It hurts because Obama enabled Iran's missile program. Because the Obama-Biden gang loooves mullah-run Iran. Chickens. Meet roost. How much more pain will we endure from that horrible deal?

Decades ago I read that in full-scale conventional war that you need to keep 40% of your troops as a rotation reserve to allow units fighting to rotate out to rest and rebuild. I wonder how Russia and Ukraine fare with that standard? This is a different standard than the COIN standard of having two units for every unit in the field (one fighting, one preparing to fight, and one recovering from the fight). 

Happy Thanksgiving! Although my wishes are belated. It's that time of year for a meme I'm pretty pleased with:

 

Uh oh: "Back in September representatives from Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso met in Bamako to work out details for forming AES (Alliance of Sahel States). The alliance is meant to improve security for all these nations. Currently Islamic terror groups are attacking all AES members. Burkina Faso is the worst hit, with about 40 percent of its territory controlled by Islamic terrorists. Mali and Niger fear the same fate will befall them. " As I said, AFRICOM is still needed.

Norway getting three new Arctic-capable coast guard ships.

Yeah, I've certainly noticed the British media bizarrely panicking about Trump. I just don't see the threat they think they see. Let's just consider the "he'll surrender to Putin by withdrawing from NATO" notion. And consider what the people who opposed his NATO efforts were thinking. Trump didn't cause trans-Atlantic friction. And Europeans wet their pants "screeeing" like 12-year old girls about Obama in contrast to Trump's efforts to resist Russia that I summarized. Still, as Europeans look across the Atlantic and get their panties in a twist--Squirrel!

I sure hope Iran isn't having the Houthi drain the ship's missiles prior to making a serious effort to hit the ship: "A U.S. warship shot down "multiple one-way attack drones" launched from Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen on Thursday morning local time, according to the United States Central Command." [LATER: I heard from a friend that Phalanx is being used, so I'm calm again.]

I've long been a fan of the A-10. But I think the author's claim the plane can survive in a modern air defense environment is based on his assumption that the recent deployment of A-10s to CENTCOM is intended to fly and fight into the teeth of such defenses. Nor do I buy that data which is based on leisurely bombardment campaigns rather than close air support under intense ground attack. That's pretty thin evidence of the A-10's ability to fly and fight in that environment. I worry about the people and procedures we are losing. 

That's been my impression: "The Economist created a useful chart which indicates that it is not. The chart shows that the military equipment the U.S. has supplied to Ukraine is redundant stock that is on the way to being replaced with new advanced equipment. The three main systems that are at a low point are Javelins, Stingers and ATACMs. Ukraine has been a useful testing ground for all of them." 

The Army's navy to cross water barriers, whether seas, rivers, or the gap between ships and piers.

Learning the unique skills to survive and win in trench warfare.

There's a strong case to be made for this: "'The next fight against our major adversary will be like no other,' the 14-page document begins. 'The use of non-kinetic effects and defense against those effects prior to and during kinetic exchanges will likely be the deciding factor in who prevails.'" I don't worry unless someone thinks non-kinetics are replacements for the exploding things rather than the necessary foundation to blow things up and avoid getting blown up. Oh.

How will Russians react to the militarization of its society?

That Rainbow Bridge crash is weird. Did the driver have drugs in the car and suddenly got panicked over the thought of a secondary search that would discover that? Lord knows I've had my adventures with border security over the years (although I seem to have aged out of whatever profile inspired that attention). But I've never thought of running for it.

The T-7 trainer can easily be converted to the F-7 fighter-bomber.

The A2/AD game: "The United States of America (USA) is all set to mount a 'missile wall' in the Pacific Ocean, based largely out of Islands in Japan, Taiwan and Philippines in 2024 to counteract an ever-aggressive China." I mentioned the wall. 

A ship unable to leave port because of lack of maintenance is just waiting to be sunk:  "Keeping the ballistic missile submarines, aircraft carriers and attack submarines operational is a priority, with the surface fleet coming in behind, former U.S. Navy Surface Warfare Captain Bradley Martin, now a senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation think tank, told Newsweek." Yes.

Hezbollah is firing at Israel more. But they still aren't using the "big guns" to risk a full war. 

A French think tank says the Winter War of 2022 has wrecked Russia's advantage in the Baltic states: "With the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO, the Baltic theater is reconfigured so profoundly to Russia’s disadvantage that no amount of effort could make "Fortress Kaliningrad" defensible,' the report said." Russia will rebuild eventually. But the advantage over Kaliningrad is vital in the long run.

A call to withdraw American troops from Syria: "Why drawdown completely?  The answer is simple.  The small contingent of U.S. forces in Syria, especially, are sitting ducks for further attacks in support of missions where the costs of continuing those missions now far outstrip their strategic benefits." I'm certainly concerned about America supporting the mission. But don't pretend we don't have missions there, including screening Iraq. How do we make up for pulling out of Syria to continue that mission? With our troops in Iraq still targets. And doesn't the Syria withdrawal logic mean we have to pull out of Iraq, too? The author sneaks that in at the end. That didn't work out too well the last time we did. Even Obama recognized that and re-engaged.

Interesting: "Russian military officers have offered a bleak overview of Moscow's prospects in the ongoing war in Ukraine, bemoaning a lack of strategy from leadership."

The Middle East is not a "quagmire" for American forces. America has enduring interests there and stubborn enemies who would win if we left. Saying it is a quagmire ignores how much our forces have been drawn down from peaks to much lower levels of fighting. And don't you have to say Europe and Asia are American "quagmires" because our military can't seem to leave those areas?  

The European Union voted to strengthen the powers of the EU over member nation states, and isn't even trying to hide its imperial aspirations. Shocking, I know. A united Europe is not in America's interest. The proto-imperial EU is a threat to America and to European freedom. But now, with Europeans focused on the external Russian threat, the EU will use yet another crisis to strip away the prefix. Macron smiles. And Germany knows its place. Don't believe the EU will create a kinder and gentler empire. Watch for the EU to reduce the ability of the nation members to survive ever closer union and so prevent a future peaceful Brexit on the continent.

Maddow thinks she is showing us the Nazi sympathizers in 1930s America as a warning of what MAGA might do. In reality she is showing what progressives and their Hamas allies are doing right now. And now for something completely different:


 

It seems to me that those who claim Western sanctions on Russia have "failed" rely on the notion that sanctions that don't crush an enemy don't work. It's no silver bullet, but Russia is worse off than it would be without sanctions. That's all we can expect.

The divided European defense economies have not been able to match American war production capabilities. I'm sure the EU will use that fact to justify giving it more power. Still, I don't understand why European countries with a GDP larger than Russia couldn't match Russian production.

Four decades of South Korean frigate development.

You think you hate and distrust the media enough. You do not. Tip to Instapundit.

I was at the game:

Gotta say Ohio State has a good football team. While I was tense and occasionally flirted with being "concerned", I was strangely confident Michigan would win. I was way more tense and concerned watching the Penn State and Maryland games. Don't know why. I was not tempted to storm the field after the game. That had post-event "It seemed like a good idea at the time" written all over it. A man's got to know his limitations, eh?

Russia continues to make progress toward a stealth fighter. And always will?

Russia is working to adapt to sanctions even as the West works to tighten them. But: "Economic sanctions have been increasingly popular during the last century, even though they rarely work as intended. A current example of this is what happened to Russia after they invaded Ukraine. Russia continues to suffer high economic costs caused by the economic sanctions imposed by most Western nations. Russian leaders realize even now that, if the cost of continuing the war against Ukraine reaches the point where more and more Russians experience declining living standards, they might lose. A growing number of Russians see the Ukraine War as something they can’t afford and can justify getting out of."

You think you hate and distrust our media enough. You do not.

China continues to illegally claim the bulk of the waters of the South China Sea: "The Chinese military said on Saturday that American naval destroyer USS Hopper entered China's territorial waters without the approval of the Chinese government." I hope we provide robust overwatch. One day the Chinese will challenge a warship lawfull traversing the sea without unneeded and unlawful Chinese permission.

Again, not shocked: "Who could have predicted that within 24 hours of [the October 7th Hamas] pogrom, crowds would appear in New York, Ft. Lauderdale, Toronto, London, and Sydney denouncing Jews and calling for an end to the Jewish State? Who might have anticipated that the message from academe would be, in so many words, that Israel had it coming?" These people just didn't have the modern Internet megaphone to draw support from each other back on September 12, 2001. And these people existed in the pre-Internet age where they were even more atomized. Tip to Instapundit.

Kopek Wise and Ruble Foolish

Putin says he wants to restore Russia's Soviet-level glory. Will Russian elites decide to save Russia from the China threat despite Putin's insane crusade against NATO that should be a source of support against the real threat and not an enemy of Russia?

Behold the stupid:

Beijing is increasing its political influence in Siberia and the Russian Far East to better support its expanding economic activities. These efforts are directed at the political and business elites who are the major stakeholders in deciding which firms can operate in their respective regions (Kommersant, May 20; Vybor Naroda, October 25). This pattern follows the Chinese playbook from Central Asia, where Beijing has used a wide range of tools to promote its “soft power” and even opened the way for deploying elements of “hard power,” including private security companies (see “The Role of PSCs in Securing Chinese Interests in Central Asia,” February 22). China has done so by providing funds and opportunities that Moscow can no longer offer to support the authoritarian tendencies of regional elites.

I've noted Russia's need to end their invasion of Ukraine in order to pay attention to the real threats to Mother Russia.

There was little notice of China's sudden claim of a small amount of Russian territory and calling Russia-controlled territory by their Chinese names in their newly released official map. But Russians surely paid attention to that very dangerous precedent for future claims to reverse Russia's contribution to the Century of Humiliation that China fixates on.

But Putin remains fixated on imaginary NATO threats in the west while outside of the cone of his tunnel vision a gathering storm builds in the east. He has lost his gamble of buying time to face that threat.

In one sense, getting China focused inland rather than to the sea where America and our allies are is what I've long wanted America to achieve. But the point was to get Russia to flip to siding with the West. Putin's bloody and destructive war on Ukraine is wrecking the ability to easily accept Russia into the free West to make a Russian reaction to China's threat work out. 

The West may get the worst of both worlds by having an outcast Russia being the first line of defense against China's inland front that does too little to divert China from the sea front.

Still, having a Russia isolated from the West but focused on China is better than what we have now.

Honestly, I've considered the overthrow of Putin as a low odds source of ending the Winter War of 2022.

But the way China is exploiting Russia's flailing and costly war in Ukraine, the odds of paranoid Russian elites wondering if China sent Putin to Russia the way Germany sent Lenin there may begin to grow in enough minds to lead them to save Russia by ending the war against Ukraine and the insane crusade against NATO.

The bottom line is that I once speculated that Russia had to pivot to Asia and be set by July 2026 before a treaty with China expired, freeing China to claim territory in Russia's Far East. Unless the treaty is extended again--and a faltering China just might do that--Putin is watching the clock tick on his war in Ukraine. 

We speak of Russia being able to overwhelm smaller Ukraine. But Russia needs to preserve its power for a much larger enemy. Don't assume time is on Putin's side. Because of Putin's brutal war on Ukraine, the degree of difficulty for having a moment of clarity on real threats to Russia has gone up.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NATO in Asia?

Common fear of China is no basis for a geographically broad alliance without a common vision of a common battlefield to collectively resist China.

Does the success of NATO (even as critics want it disbanded) mean we need an Indo-Pacific version? 

A collective defense arrangement for the Indo-Pacific is the most effective deterrent to Beijing’s hegemonic designs. It is time to give serious thought to an Indo-Pacific Treaty Organization. This IPTO would draw on lessons from NATO, whose relevance has been renewed and whose strength is now bolstered by Finland and soon Sweden.

Right now America mostly has bilateral agreements that it weaves together into a kind of theater-wide alliance (Australia, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand) Some countries are reaching out to each other in addition to the ties with America. The author dismisses this as a "patchwork of bilateral defense agreements".

On the surface it seems appealing to create an Asian version of the NATO alliance. One could reasonably ask why such a good idea hasn't been tried before.

Well, there was CENTO. And SEATO. A common front was elusive for those, eh?

But NATO has had a center of gravity that members can focus on defending. In the Cold War it was defending West Germany. Now it is defending the Baltic Sea region. Yes, there were and are other fronts. But the main front is clear.

What would be the focus that all countries across the Indian and Pacific Oceans could agree on defending? Well, there isn't one. Taiwan is as close as we have gotten to that. But Taiwan won't be in that alliance. Which is a major flaw in the concept. 

All those bilateral ties the author highlights which America is strengthening give an indication of the breadth of our allies and their different defense interests. 

But this doesn't mean that cross alliances won't strengthen security against Chinese aggression apart from America's web of mostly bilateral ties:

The Chinese have been intruding on the margins of the Philippines. The Japanese have publicly stated that they will work to strengthen Philippine defenses and help by sending warships in the event China attacks. Japan has also announced that it is increasing cooperation with Malaysia. In addition, China and India have been fighting an off-and-on border war. Japan told India that it was prepared to offer unspecified support.

I don't think it is possible to have more than a debating society masquerading as a unified military alliance in INDOPACOM. That might be a reason that an idea good on the surface hasn't shown up already.

Another bilateral tie to oppose China (tip to Instapundit):

Vietnam and Japan on Monday officially upgraded their relations to a "comprehensive strategic partnership" during a visit by Vietnamese president Vo Van Thuong to Tokyo. ...

Vietnam has designated five other countries as comprehensive strategic partners, including China, India, Russia, South Korea and the United States.

NOTE: The image was made from DALL-E. I requested "an abstract painting that illustrates the NATO alliance in Asia".

Again, there is a common enemy. But not a common battlefield.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

Fortess Taiwan and Summer Camp Troops

As America frets that it can spare weapons to Taiwan after supplying Ukraine and Israel, America should admit that training the Taiwanese to use whatever they have is the important first step before shipping in the advanced weapons.

Congress wants to help Taiwan deter China: 

Those recommendations included fixing the $19 billion Taiwan arms sale backlog, establishing the Taiwan reserves stockpile, implementing multiyear munitions procurement, passing cybersecurity legislation for Taiwan and more.

The U.S. is "quietly arming Taiwan to the teeth," the BBC says. But providing weapons--even high tech wonder weapons--is the least of Taiwan's defense problems: 

In 2013 Taiwan reduced military service from one year to just four months, before reinstating it back to 12 months, a move that takes effect next year. But there are bigger challenges. It's jokingly referred to as a 'summer camp' by the young men who go through it.

I don't have confidence in Taiwan's army if the PLA invaders get past the anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles and get ashore. 

As I wrote about the U.S. Army a quarter century ago:

Although there appears to be a consensus among military strategists and policy-makers that the United States must maintain its technological edge, the troops must be trained and motivated to take advantage of that technology. The critical advantages provided by highly trained soldiers with good morale are not easily quantifiable in peacetime. The lack of quality becomes quantifiable, indirectly, when one counts the burned-out armored vehicles of an army whose troops did not know how to use their equipment and who lacked the will to fight on in adversity.

Further, from the initial article: 

"Under intense pressure from Washington, Taipei is switching to a "fortress Taiwan" strategy that would make the island extremely difficult for China to conquer.

The focus will switch to ground troops, infantry and artillery - repelling an invasion on the beaches and, if necessary, fighting the People's Liberation Army (PLA) in the towns and cities, and from bases deep in the island's jungle-covered mountains. But this puts the responsibility for defending Taiwan back on its outdated army."

But even if we manage to help Taiwan build its small ground forces so they are able and willing to fight from the beaches to the cities to the mountains, who drives the PLA off the island?

A top Taiwanese legislator said (back to the first article) that "Taiwan is preparing to send two battalions of ground troops to the US for training, the first time this has happened since the 1970s."

That's not enough. We should get the Philippines to allow us to train Taiwanese troops in the Philippines on a larger scale.

NOTE: The image was made from DALL-E.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

Just War Theory Means Just Enemies Can Choose War

The Left is going all in on defending Hamas and condemning Israel's military effort to prevent Hamas from slaughtering Jews again. Why do progressives believe our enemies can do no wrong?

I'm hearing "just war" points being brought up to condemn Israel's counteroffensive into Gaza. A prominent point on the list is that war has to be the "last resort":

The criterion of last resort is key to all just-war considerations. Force should be used only when all other means have failed or would be clearly ineffective. Israel sees no other way to neutralize Hamas and rescue the hostages. But it has forsworn direct negotiations out of hand, and it is not considering a peace process for Gaza. Mr. Netanyahu has dismissed Hamas’s proposed deals for the release of hostages. He has said that he does not want to negotiate with Hamas, though we know that negotiation with adversaries, however distasteful, has often proven successful.

"Often" successful. As in rarely. As in, not with "adversaries" who rape, and murder, and torture.

I've rejected that notion of insisting on the "last resort" standard in the past:

When you believe that any path, no matter how unlikely to bear fruit, keeps you from that "last" resort, then military force is practically speaking never an option.

Indeed, in regard to Iran's nuclear ambitions, striking as a last resort makes the job much harder when all other options fail. 

Also, about his proportionality nonsense.

But I have a question for today. Why doesn't that "last resort" standard apply to what Hamas started on October 7th? Or does Hamas get a pass because on a technicality Hamas didn't wage war--organized violence for a political purpose--but instead carried out organized slaughter and rape on a large scale? Which is completely different, I admit. Oh who am I kidding? For our enemies, war is always justified, right?

Our enemies--like Russia in 2022 or Hamas right now or even al Qaeda in 2001--never get the "how dare you go to war when it isn't the last resort" treatment. 

Professor Dorn, who penned that essay above, is (charitably) a moron who essentially defends monsters. Pray tell, what would the basis of negotiations between Israel and Hamas look like? Calculating the acceptable number of Israelis that Hamas is allowed to murder, torture, rape, and kidnap each year? 

Face it, if Israel only fights when and how Dorn approves, Israel's place in history will be a footnote that reminds us when the state of Israel was destroyed by monsters who were defended by progressives. Because on October 7th, much of the world publicly and enthusiastically cheered the slaughter and rape invasion before Israel even began to fight back. What's just about that?

Hamas must be destroyed. Let's make sure this is truly the Last Hamas War.

UPDATE: Who exploits this more?

Israel and Hamas have agreed to a four-day ceasefire to take effect Thursday, while the Palestinians release between 50 and 80 Israeli hostages, and Israel lets up to 300 prisoners, mostly women and children, out of its jails, mediators said Wednesday.

Hamas probably figures it has hostages to spare. Keep doing this--nicely spread out--and the clock runs out for Israel.

I wonder if Israel felt compelled by allies or Israelis to do this? Hopefully, Israel can use this time and debriefings to resume the offensive more effectively.

UPDATE: If al Shifa Hospital wasn't the Hamas fortress it was thought to be, it was still illegally used by Hamas as a shield to kill Israeli troops. The media dismisses the latter because of the former: 

This is not healthy scepticism of ‘war propaganda’ – it’s a dogmatic refusal to accept a single thing the Jewish State says.

As I've noted all along, I doubt the extent and sophistication of the tunnels. If my skepticism is correct, that doesn't negate Hamas war crimes of using human shields. 

Besides, Amnesty International and PBS verified long ago how the hospital is used by Hamas. But never mind. Nothing to see. Move along.

UPDATE: ISW released an update on the war on November 21st.

FLASH OVERRIDE UPDATE: Has Hamas terrorism come to our shores?

The FBI is investigating a vehicle explosion Wednesday at the Rainbow Bridge border crossing between the U.S. and Canada in what sources tell Fox News was an attempted terrorist attack.

Explosives were in the vehicle at the time and two people who were in the car are dead, the sources told Fox News. A border officer was injured.

I've been worried. But the car bomb apparently was coming from the Canada side.

Hopefully Michigan bridges and tunnel are on high alert.

UPDATE: A report that the attack was launched from the U.S. side but security foiled it.

UPDATE: More:

Canadian officials told ABC News the car did not originate on the Canadian side of the border. As investigators work to determine the car's path, it appears the incident started and ended on the U.S. side of bridge.

Surveillance video showed the vehicle stopped at an initial security checkpoint, according to sources briefed on the investigation. The vehicle was then directed to a secondary security checkpoint, and at that point the vehicle sped up and crashed into the secondary screening location, sources said.

UPDATE: I heard a report from an eye witness that there was no explosion after the very high-speed crash. An accident? 

But what about report of explosives? Early erroneous reporting in the fog of war?

UPDATE: It seems like the early reports of a terror attack are starting to be walked back. Was this just a couple criminals who made a stupid effort to evade capture after a thorough vehicle search?

UPDATE: It's weirder, with video:

The deadly fireball crash at the Rainbow Bridge is now believed to have involved a local New York man and his wife who had ill-fated plans to attend a KISS concert over the border in Canada[.]

Did the driver have a medical emergency that led to pressing the accelerator to the floor? Seriously weird. But weird beats terrorism. 

Still, this is so odd that I expect a thousand conspiracy theories to bloom. And the government and media will share part of the blame for ruining their own credibility. 

UPDATE: Strategypage looks at the Last Hamas War and related background information.

UPDATE: I'm seeing more references to Israel controlling Gaza for a couple generations--or more. But I don't think that is sufficient. After 50 years, Israel's enemies will simply say that Gaza would have been even more glorious if not for those meddlesome Jews. You know that is true. That's why I think there needs to be a contrast at the end of those 50 years.

UPDATE: What will the next phase look like?

As it prepares for the imminent release of hostages by Hamas, the Israeli government has reiterated that the current truce is only a "short pause" after which it will resume its bombardment with "full military power".

And how much will the Israelis learn from the pause in fighting? From hostages, signals intelligence, watching where humanitarian aid goes, etc. 

UPDATE: The latest ISW update on the war.

UPDATE: Hamas appears to be using the "pause" to push civilian human shields back into northeastern Gaza. Who knows how many terrorists are trying to slip in, too.

UPDATE: Could there be unintended escalation of the Last Hamas War into a regional war--or even broader? 

Maybe. But neither Hezbollah nor Iran seem to want escalation. But things change. 

And a broader war would really just be linking a war involving Iran (which is already an ongoing proxy and quasi-war) with its ally Russia's ongoing war against Ukraine rather than a true escalation. Real escalation would mean China starting a war. Is that likely? I doubt it. 

But yeah, unlikely bad things can happen the longer Israel's campaign continues. Like I've said, tick tock, Israel.

UPDATE: Israel has limits to how much it can go it alone without American support. Does Biden have limits to how much it can effectively side with Hamas?

Israel craves — even needs — America in its corner. Yet, it is well aware that existence in the Mideast depends on obliterating Hamas. It will do what it has to do even if the Jerusalem-Washington rift widens further. 

Even aside from American support levels, Israel can't remain mobilized indefinitely without seriously harming their economy. Tick tock. 

UPDATE: Delenda est Hamas:

A truce that leaves Hamas in control of Gaza will not be a permanent solution but merely a temporary pause in which Gazans remain controlled by a terrorist group that will abuse civilian infrastructure and resources to rebuild, rearm and return to its stated objective of destroying Israel.

That is the reality despite delusions that a ceasefire is the best path. Israel must destroy Hamas. 

But an Israeli sense of urgency is needed.

NOTE: The image was made from DALL-E.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.