The Paranoid Can Never Feel Secure

In a magical world where Russia wasn't brutally attacking a sovereign member of the international community, violating pledges to respect Ukraine's borders with a war with heavy casualties, committing rampant war crimes and inflicting widespread damage, and making delusional justifications for attacking Ukraine, I could accept a need to understand Russia's need to feel secure.

In theory, this is reasonable: 

As the international community mulls how to jump-start this [negotiations] process, it is important to remember that peace can only be achieved by making both Ukraine and Russia feel secure. Both of them. Not one of them.

In reality, not so much:

Russia watched NATO disarm but still believed it was marching toward Moscow because former Soviet vassal states didn't want Russia to take back what the Soviets lost. If America had provided zero security assistance aid to Ukraine, Russia still would have feared a NATO plot. If NATO had disbanded, Russia would have convinced itself that it was a clever American plot to remove the restraints the alliance placed on American plots to destroy Russia. 

There is no geographical advance that would calm Russian paranoia.

So I disregard Russian paranoia as something America must consider when deciding policy because Russian paranoia is an internal issue beyond our control. Describing American policy toward Russia in public should consider Russian paranoia. But not the basic policy.

I have long believed that no territorial concession can sate Russia's endless appetite for that precious feeling of security.

Face it, Russia will eventually call our effort to make them feel secure a giant trap to stab them in the back. Only when Russia is clearly defeated can the West intervene to reassure them that Ukraine only wants Russia out of Ukraine.

I once thought a more balanced approach could work to resolve the Russia-Ukraine dispute. But Russia's brutal war has changed my mind. It astounds me that a view that was completely reasonable before this latest invasion and even perhaps early in the war can still be embraced as if nothing has changed. Making Russia feel secure isn't a high priority.

I want Russia to first feel defeated in Ukraine. Then, because Russia has nukes, we can spare a thought for Russian feelings of security.

But somehow, Putin isn't paranoid about China. Go figure.

NOTE: The image was made with DALL-E.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

Hope Amidst the Late-Stage Industrial Age Ruins?

Are we on the cusp of a wave of prosperity that we cannot see in the middle of the churn that is propelling us toward an Information Revolution that improves all of our human systems that so obviously no longer cope?

My disgust with the lack of competence of our ruling elites and institutions depresses me about our future. But at the same time, I've never relied on the competence of the vast majority of people who run our systems. I've had far more faith in our systems to operate despite fallible humans rather than because of the humans staffing them. That has been the foundation of my basic optimism about life.

Before I started this post I had added to a Weekend Date Dump this entry (edited for paragraph breaks when I moved it here instead):

I have confidence that our country will muddle through based on two observations. 

One, despite the news media amplifying political differences (call it blue and red journalism rather than yellow journalism), most legislative issues actually receive broad support. That's what I saw in my career at the state level. Nobody sees that cooperation, however. 

And two, the bitter hatred is mostly on the news media reporting on small, vocal activist groups; and in social media, where a tiny minority of fanatical users generate the most hate in a medium that only a minority of people actually use. 

At some point, I believe the policies based on those two mirages will collapse. Not before doing serious damage to America. But I think America will recover and prosper. 

Your personal outcome will of course vary greatly as this damage passes through our system. I know I'm worried personally.

And then I read an article that seems to address my contradictory feelings about the future. 

That article asks if we are we in the middle of an information revolution that propels prosperity by reordering our industrial age systems? 

Oral traditions were written down, forming the basis of organized religion. Scientific enquiries and philosophical debates could transcend the limits of space and time, as scholars could read the words of their predecessors.

I've read others discussing shorter cycles that indicate renewed prosperity based on adjustments. 

That quoted illustration highlights something I've observed: how difficult it is to collect all the information that has been written or spoken about a subject I wish to study. 

On more than one occasion I've noted that my article on an issue isn't mentioned in someone else's article or study. Of course, I've also noticed articles too late to do me any good when writing about something. My apologies to those authors. 

Will this information revolution unfolding elevate enquiries and debates by enabling us to find the best and most relevant information we need using AI? 

I admit one of my first efforts to use AI was to find information on a particular topic I was working on. I failed. I probably didn't try hard enough to use search terms well enough. I certainly know from mere Google and its predecessors that searching is a learning process as you discover the proper terms, concepts, and names to search with after the first nearly ignorant queries are made. 

Perhaps AI--real AI, and not the leftist-programmed early models of AI that we are now seeing--will do all that iterative learning and searching in a blink of an eye to find the needed information. 

Will this Information Revolution reorder so much of our society in enabling something better that the dislocations so many of us feel hides the advances that are coming? After all, my unease quoted above is--amazingly given the article I read--centered around mirages based on the false nature of the information we are so sure is true.

Maybe the human brain is incapable of even using good information if it conflicts with biases. Maybe biases are built on an evolutionary need to use incomplete information to identify patterns good enough to survive. But maybe just as the Neolithic and Industrial Revolutions did, the Information Revolution will drive changes to our systems to rely on and use better information despite the flawed humans who run the systems:

These are still early days, but the Information Revolution seems fated to be more dramatic still. A cascade of interlocking, interrelated social and technological change is driving global upheaval at an unprecedented speed. Before its work is done, the Information Revolution is likely to drive social, political, cultural, economic, and geopolitical transformations more sweeping and profound than anything the Industrial Revolution produced.

This is both a wonderful and a terrifying thing.

Perhaps my current unease coexisting with hope will be resolved with the hopeful path, after all. Perhaps my nature feels--or, in an explanation more favorable to my ego, my brain is pulling together inputs that lead me to subconsciously judge--the optimistic outcome even as my eyes cannot see the source of hope.

Maybe in the midst of the churn that signifies creative destruction, we fail to see the creation as we focus on the destruction.

Or I'm whistling past the graveyard as America and the Anglosphere choose to decline.

Even if that decline "only" means I--and people like me--will be collateral damage trampled on the way to humanity's--and more importantly, America's--better future. I guess as long as my children prosper in that better American future, I will be able to reconcile myself to my fate. Hey, I've had a good run.

Do read all of the articles. And a tip to Instapundit for both. 

UPDATE: Are we too pessimistic about the so-called decline of the West?

China’s assertions about the decline of the West reveal an underlying anxiety. After all, if liberal democracy is failing, why do Chinese officials consistently express their fear of it? The fact that leaders of the Communist Party of China have instructed rank-and-file members to engage in an “intense struggle” against liberal-democratic values indicates that they view open societies as an existential threat.

I remain hopeful about the long run but concerned about the short run. 

UPDATE: If you prefer your speculation dark (tip to Instapundit):

First of all, a bit like communist China, America and Europe are – let’s be honest – increasingly totalitarian societies, in which it is no longer enough even to refrain from speaking out against Big Sister; no, you must love and affirm Big Sister, and all her values and beliefs, and all her progressive works, and you must say so constantly and at high volume or be instantly suspected as a dangerous, hateful, reactionary threat not only to the regime but to all humanity.

I retain hope that American exceptionalism, federal system, and sheer size will finally overcome the bout of Wilsonian totalitarian madness gripping our country. 

And I hope that a renewed American commitment to freedom will once again infect Europe with freedom.

Hey, at heart I'm an optimist despite a strong steak of cynicism about actual people.

NOTE: The illustration was made by DALL-E using the query "a photograph of a man torn between fear of economic ruin and hope that artificial intelligence will unleash an information revolution".

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

The Winter War of 2022 Has an Air Power Question

Russia's air power hasn't impressed Western observers. But is Russian air power actually doing its job even if Western observers don't appreciate it? 

Russia continues to carry out small-scale and intermittently successful attacks across the Donbas front. Where is Russia's vaunted air power that looms menacingly over the battlefield? Only suicide drones/missiles seem to darken Ukrainian skies in attacks on cities.

Assessing Russian air power at war against Ukraine: 

Although Russia’s military capabilities have turned out to be less impressive than many in the West thought before this war, the Russian armed forces are neither an operetta-type outfit nor a pushover.  As already noted, they can put whole provinces and cities to waste and make up in ruthless brutality much of what they lack in professionalism and prowess.  They wage war in an old-fashioned manner, so old-fashioned that we are talking about the Old Testament or the Thirty Year’s War, but unless stopped, that can be terrifyingly effective, as shown in Chechnya.

The old fashioned manner relies on ground-based firepower (including ship-based firepower). Whether artillery close to the front or ballistic missiles and drones for deeper strikes.

Note this: 

A significant conclusion from this war is that the well-developed GBAD [NOTE: Ground-Based Air Defense] of both sides has been very effective in limiting the enemy’s freedom of action in the air domain and that the importance of ground-based air defence has been underestimated in the West.

As I briefly explained recently: 

I think air superiority isn't as important for ground combat in an age of precision, long-range ground artillery. With a caveat that you at least have to nullify enemy air superiority.

The Russians had it right, I believed--if Russia can nullify enemy air power. 

I've wondered if Russia's air force will intervene in force during the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Now I wonder if it can even if it wants to. Especially if it gets into maneuver warfare. 

But I wonder if even that is the right question. Ultimately Russia doesn't rely on its air power for that ground combat support role. We'll see if Russia's large artillery force is the real mobile firepower that is rushed to the point of Ukraine's counteroffensive to blunt and defeat it.

And as long as Russia can nullify Ukraine's air power to keep that artillery safe, it could be good enough for this war.

Although the form of the Ukrainian counteroffensive may determine what Russia's air power can do. There need to be targets that stand still long enough for Russia's air power to strike.

Ukraine regained large chunks of territory with three methods. 

First, Russia faltered in an offensive on Kiev and ordered a withdrawal from territory conquered in northeastern Ukraine. Ukrainian forces largely followed the Russians out rather than push them out. 

Then Ukraine rapidly captured a large chunk of territory with a rapid blitzkrieg with a small force in Kharkiv province against Russian resistance that collapsed when hit. 

Finally, Ukraine used firepower and small attacks over a long period to compel a Russian withdrawal from the west bank of the Dnieper River in Kherson province when the Russians feared for their lines of communication and supply.

The Ukrainians themselves say they are ready to strike now. Which type of advance will the next Ukrainian advance follow? And will the Ukrainians expose their units to decisive Russian air attack? 

That question could be key to whether Ukraine will maintain Western support to eject the Russian invaders.

But back to the general air power issue.

I hold open the possibility that Russia's approach could collapse under attack by stealth aircraft that take apart Russian GBAD and intervene in the ground battles on a large scale. 

Mind you, I'm not saying close air support isn't great if you can provide it. But given how low a priority the U. S. Air Force has for providing that, is it any wonder the Army wants its own fire support? 

And if the Army had the power to provide its own close fires support, what fire support would it pay for? Would the Army accept Air Force air superiority in the high blue skies (the brown skies where drones roam are a different problem) and use ground-based fires to support troops in combat?

In this light, it will be interesting to see what missions NATO's Air Defender 23 exercise practices. And, of course, we shall see what Russia's air force does when the Ukrainian counteroffensive hits the fan.

UPDATE (Tuesday): It really does seem like Ukraine is trying to bring the war to Russia nominally to spread Russian resources ahead of their counteroffensive:

Russian air defenses stopped eight drones converging on Moscow, officials said Tuesday, in an attack that authorities blamed on Ukraine

UPDATE (Tuesday): Strategypage has a lot of interesting information on the Russians.

One:

When Russia declared victory in Bakhmut, Ukrainian forces were still holding western portions of the city. As Russia began moving most of its troops from the city after the victory announcement, Ukrainian forces advanced and reoccupied the territory Russians had recently captured. 

It seemed like Russia captured all of the city. But even if the Russians did not literally it was true for all practical purposes. But it is fascinating that the Russians then gave up some. The announcement of victory was more important than literal complete control. And the cost was high for Russia. Much higher than for Ukraine.

Two, the Ukrainians would like 50 F-16s:

The Ukrainian F-16s will put the Russian air force on the defensive and expose Russian targets to more effective airstrikes. 

Well, it would help nullify Russian efforts to operate over Ukraine, I think. And air strikes would have to use stand-off weapons to avoid Russian air defenses. 

Three, Russia has been stymied by a layered air defense system Ukraine has built. This seemingly contradicts the talk of doom from the Discord Leaks.

Four, Russian artillery has been hammered:

After two weeks of dedicated and persistent Ukrainian artillery attacks on Russian artillery, rocket launchers and large (120mm and up) caliber mortars the artillery systems available to Russian forces has been reduced by nearly 2,700 along the 1,500 kilometer front line in southeastern and southern Ukraine.

Wow.

Five, Ukraine is incorporating Western tanks into their counteroffensive:

This mobile attack force can move to portions of the front line the Russians were not able to fortify with tank obstacles and landmines. This is what the Russians feared the Ukrainians might do and it means the elaborate defenses Russia has built will be bypassed and the Ukrainian mobile units will capture large portions of Russian occupied Ukraine.

Strategypage also reports that Russian troops are "largely demoralized". This speaks to my hopes, so I'm wary of embracing it.

Six. Russia had to get 300,000 shells from Iran and the same from North Korea:

Russian reserves of 152mm artillery munitions are exhausted and production facilities in Russia are unable to supply additional shells quickly enough to refill the depleted war reserve.

The latter might be because North Korea fears South Korea's large stockpile of 155mm shells.

Do read it all.

UPDATE (Tuesday): This is exactly why I worry about embracing my hopes:

Trusting in the common perception of the state of the Russian military can be designed to be fatal. I have long wondered about the chaotic structure of Russian forces in Ukraine and about the amount of time and resources Russia devotes to secondary targets. It’s tempting to assume that Moscow is foundering or that it was fated to defeat, but the fact that maskirovka is embedded so deeply in the Russian military psyche makes it necessary to periodically rethink Russian plans and resources.

Not that Friedman thinks the exact maskirova outlined is likely. But my worries don't go away about something hidden even though my instinct is to inflict worries on Russia rather than take counsel from my fears.

UPDATE (Tuesday): The most straightforward way to look at Russia's performance is that we are seeing what Russia's military is--and not that Russia has a deep plan hidden by the body count.

For decades, I've read that the North Vietnamese siege of the Marines at Khe Sahn in 1968 was really just a diversion bolstered by heavy NVA losses. It was an "Asiatic" approach to war alien to the West.

But recently, I read that North Vietnamese sources say that the North Vietnamese were absolutely trying to overrun Khe Sahn. It was no deep feint built on mounds of NVA troop casualties.

NOTE: The image was made with DALL-E.

NOTE: ISW coverage of the war continues here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

Weekend Data Dump

They aren't a magic wand: "Here come more sanctions: How effective are they are stopping Russia's invasion of Ukraine?" They can't stop the invasion. Before the war I was skeptical that sanctions could stop Russia. Experts were so sure they would that my confidence was shaken. But my skepticism was correct. They do impose a cost on the invader. Which is good enough.  

It's a big job: "The Royal Australian Navy faces the greatest challenge of the Australian Defense Force as it pursues a nuclear-powered submarine fleet, according to the nation’s latest defense blueprint."

Even if Australia never operates its own SSNs, this will be useful: "As part of the AUKUS agreement, US and British subs will operate out of western Australia by 2027."

The fighting in Sudan continues: "Sudan's army is resisting an attempt by paramilitaries to advance towards its main airbase near the capital Khartoum, residents have said." Is this a wider civil war or primarily a fight for the capital? The article mentions two other cities. I don't know and haven't looked.

Another authority undermined by the left's insatiable desire to score political points no matter the damage it does to institutions. Tip to Instapundit.

Additional American aid package for Ukraine. Ammo, equipment for crossing obstacles, and medical and transportation support, mostly.

North Korea moves half the distance to the goal line collapse--again.

The Navy will start life extension programs for some of our SSBNs to bridge the gap to the new Columbia-class SSBN.

Philippines: "Whenever we fly in our own territorial waters, we are challenged by the Chinese, challenged because they say we are in their territory, when in fact it is our territory." The contest is afoot.

That seems like a thinly manned trench line: "Russia has approximately 200,000 troops along a 1,000-kilometer (620-mile) battle line[.]" That's 200 combat, combat support, and combat service support troops per kilometer--assuming all are on the line. Which they shouldn't be. If the Ukrainians can punch through the defenses and break through without experiencing what the Russians experienced in their initial parade ground plunge into Ukraine, Ukraine might get the Russians running.

I call it a sign of hope that the Pentagon is resisting a full witch hunt when it knows that witches aren't running amok in the ranks as their civilian bosses claim.

Observation (tip to Instapundit): "Global warming hysteria is politics or religion, not science. This conclusion follows from the fact that the global warming models have generated many predictions that turned out to be wrong. A single wrong prediction is enough to disprove a model. Numerous, consistently repeated failures mean that the model is a joke." Well, yeah. Now go and emit no more.

Be afraid: "The U.S. Air Force on May 2 released rare images of the weapon, the GBU-57, known as the 'Massive Ordnance Penetrator.' Then it took the photos down[.]" In theory, Iran's peaceful nuclear energy research infrastructure is the target of this information operation. But Putin "knows" it is directed at him in his deepest lair, should he use nukes.

I think Russia is worried about the consequences of using nuclear weapons. But I think Russia would love to engineer an "accident" at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant under Russian control. Would a release of radioactivity essentially create at least a wide temporary zone that shields Russia's troops from a counteroffensive?

I keep saying that the heavy lifting for Ukraine's counteroffensive will be the old Soviet equipment rather than the new Western equipment still flowing in. And I think that Soviet stuff will be the first wave. I'd rather save the Western stuff for the exploitation of a breakthrough. And also, I wouldn't want to telegraph the counteroffensive with Western-equipped brigades hitting the line. Unless that's how the Russians will be diverted from the main effort, of course.

I keep hearing about how China is running rings around America in the Third World: "A dozen poor countries are facing economic instability and even collapse under the weight of hundreds of billions of dollars in foreign loans, much of them from the world’s biggest and most unforgiving government lender, China." Is this a debt trap for borrowers or a credit trap for China? How many indebted people love bill collectors when they come calling? Exit question: Is Pakistan enjoying their new Chinese friends after screwing America in Afghanistan and alienating us? Tip to Instapundit.

I don't think getting rid of HR and DEI staff is gutting "generalists" in companies. I think this trend--if it is one--is getting rid of very focused Red Guards that hinder rather than promote a successful business culture. Honestly, are you really going to take advice from a "chief people and culture officer"? Tip to Instapundit.

Exciting new discoveries from powerful Scamming Ewoketron Microsopes! Tip to Instapundit.

Biden is pushing Israeli-Saudi normalization of relations: "In return for normalization, Riyadh is reportedly seeking to take the US-Saudi security partnership to the next level — access to the most advanced weapons systems (on a par with Israel), a defense treaty and a US-Saudi civil nuclear cooperation agreement." Wow. The Abraham Accord is not dead? Big if true. And also, as I wrote about the Saudi so-called defection to China, the Saudis just want America to take their security concerns seriously. I won't say I necessarily agree with the full Saudi goals. But they have some points.

The European Union has entered the fray in the Caucasus: "Time will tell how the conflict will end. But for now, there appears to be progress between Armenia and Azerbaijan with assistance from leadership in the EU." Just remember, the EU has no particular interest in ending the conflict. The proto-imperial EU really wants the political authority to be the actor leading negotiations in order to cut that troublesome prefix. 

The Israel-Iran Quasi War rages inside Syria: "Israel's defense minister Monday said that Israel's new government has greatly increased the number of strikes on Iranian targets since taking office late last year."  

Russian fortifications.  The fortifications in western Crimea are fascinating. Just what do the Russians think the Ukrainians can do?

Yeah, the Ukrainians may have pulled off a 1943 Kursk-style defense that bled the Russians: "Russian forces proudly claimed over the weekend to have captured the battered eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, the site of the longest and bloodiest battle of the war, but the cost Russia paid at the expense of its troops undermines its claims of victory." Of course, released convicts, artillery ammunition, and gun barrels paid most of the price instead of the cream of their tank force as the Germans paid in 1943.

"Subway rider?" "NYC subway rider choked to death is mourned at Manhattan church[.]" Note how the media minimizes the threat of a "predatory crazy man" with that description. Poor random guy riding the subway killed--not that he died because other subway riders defended his potential victims. Bias? What bias?

Yeah: "A new survey of about 1,000 veterans found no evidence that the population harbors more extreme beliefs than the rest of the American public[.]" About that witch hunt, as we observe Memorial Day this week:

Oil thievery in Nigeria.

The Russian air force ordered their Su-25s to be updated. Also, a review of the A-10.

Ukrainian special forces may still be operating in Bakhmut, giving Ukraine a flimsy reason to say Russia doesn't have 100% control of the city.

Ominous? "Members of the U.S. Senate were recently offered satellite phones that will allow them to communicate in the case of a “man-made” or natural disaster, according to a report." Half accepted the phones. If I have to choose between presciently anticipating a phone disruption or the company providing the phones having political connections, I'll go with the latter. Tip to Instapundit.

Even if you can find studies showing this to happen, I am not persuaded: "In the United States, giving aid and comfort to the enemy is a serious offense, but America’s armed drone program, while it kills a lot of bad guys, also helps generate new recruits to replace them." This line of argument keeps popping up since 9/11. Why am I not persuaded? Because what the Hell doesn't set off the Islamist nutballs?  But most narrowly, I admit fighting back angers jihadis. And that killing jihadis isn't enough. But killing them is absolutely necessary to defeat them.

Six years out of action: "USS George Washington (CVN-73) has left HIII’s Newport News Shipbuilding for sea trials after almost six years at the shipyard undergoing a mid-life refueling and overhaul, USNI News has learned." As I've said, a mission kill is as good as sinking a carrier for any likely war duration.

If it keeps those who remain "special" I have no problem cutting 10-20% of the total Special Operations Command, which includes a lot more than the elite operators. If keeping numbers reduces the quality, we will be lulled into thinking we have quality because the numbers remain the same.

I've been warning about this repeatedly:

She's the Rasputin of American politics.

A number of stories hype the value of Russian fortifications. Even if good--and they may be poorly sited and constructed, for all I know--will Russians resolutely defend them? I recall post-Desert Storm commentary on the good Iraqi fortifications in Kuwait. An American officer commented that he was glad they weren't defended by North Vietnamese soldiers.

And now for something completely different from Hollywood, a gender-reversed re-boot:

Hard for me to judge: "The Israeli government’s national security adviser on Tuesday said a new nuclear facility being built by Iran would not be immune from attack, despite assessments by experts it will be beyond the reach of last-ditch U.S. bunker-busting bombs." I have no doubt the Israelis are thinking outside the box--even for deeply buried boxes.

I never mocked or dismissed the value of old tanks for infantry support. Also, the T80BV is not an old tank. But at least the Russians aren't using those "radical new tactics" perfected in Syria for tanks!

Funny, I blocked out the memory of pledging to vote for Trump in 2016. By the time the election arrived I didn't think Hillary! could be stopped, and couldn't bring myself to vote for Trump. I did in 2020 despite thinking he'd lose. 

Sure, just like Putin would welcome a ceasefire with Ukraine right about now. Tip to Instapundit.

Okay: "To be led by seven different member states, the 11 new projects will boost Europe’s ability to wage a high-intensity war, said European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, who claimed over 50 PESCO efforts are due to reach 'delivery phase' by 2025." As long as it actually supports NATO and isn't a step toward EU "strategic autonomy."

The B-1 will be able to externally carry hypersonic missiles or many more conventional bombs. When every sortie counts.

Lot's of cheap, low-flying drones is the Army is bringing back old-fashioned anti-aircraft gun capabilities. Will Navy ships bristle with these again, too?

Um, isn't that obviously an Air Force responsibility?

The Russian navy quickly shrank to irrelevance in Putin's invasion of Ukraine: "While some might wonder just how much Russia can rebuild its Navy following the war with Ukraine, the Russian Navy was not much of a threat to begin with." Yes, rebuild it. Let the fleet flow through you!

DeSantis to announce presidential candidacy. And now for something completely different standard operating procedure for Democrats:

Bravo. Really. Bravo. Tip to Instapundit. 

A decision to fight for a city is a decision to destroy it. So, yes--but no rules will reduce that reality.

A-10: "A U.S. attack aircraft known for close air support in wars in Iraq and Afghanistan is seeing action in maritime patrols amid recent tensions between the U.S. and Iran, according to the Navy." Sending the A-10 to the Navy is the latest Air Force plan to get rid of the plane (and mission) it hates.

Russia's photographic evidence of repelling the Belgorod raiders looks staged. Not that I doubt the Russians reclaimed their territory. But the evidence seems sad. They scooped out a trench, carefully placed a couple Humvees in it, and scattered some random tree debris:

Russia does have a "lost and found" bin, if needed.

Yeah, in the long run I tend to be optimistic about even illegal immigrants. But in the short run this is a problem. Both of direct effects and the bizarre refusal of one major political party that values politics over rule of law to defend our borders. Controlling the border would blend long-term optimism with short-term problem avoidance. Add in affordable (in market price--not taxpayer subsidized) housing, energy, and water, and California can be made great again. Tip to Instapundit.

It's bad enough it's a missile magnet: "M​uch of the United States territory island of Guam was in the dark as Typhoon Mawar struck its more than 150,000 American citizens directly Wednesday night local time." I wonder how China's artificial islands in the South China Sea would fare from such a hit?

Theater Sustainment Command: "The Europe-based unit in charge of shipping weapons to Ukraine has sped up deliveries by 30 percent compared to the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion last year[.]" Fortunately the work to do this started a while ago in reaction to Russia's first invasion of Ukraine.

They're nuts, to be sure. But they're not suicidal! "It’s impossible not to bring up the fact that an LGBTQ+ group that was devoted to mocking Islam wouldn’t be getting an invitation to Pride Night. They don’t exist, of course, because none of the progressive freak flag-flying fringe groups are as brave as the media would have us believe."

It's reassuring to hear that China recognizes its military limitations: "There is an interesting tendency to overestimate potential offensive powers over those with a strong defensive base. Russia in Ukraine is a case in point, but so is China, where an attack on Taiwan has been imminent for years. Russia did not recognize its position, but China does." But does China recognize that?

Exhibit X for why I don't trust--and now actively despise--much of American news media. Via Instapundit. 

How green is your war on an eco-system? An on indigenous culture? On a natural carbon sink? And on real people? Well, you have to break some eggs to save the planet, right? Tip to Instapundit.

How our media--not the police or dwindling racism--is the real source of modern American racial divisions. What would an enemy do differently to weaken America? Via Instapundit.

Russia effed up: "Special forces are highly-trained troops reserved for high-value missions. But using them as assault infantry? That's a wasteful way to use a scarce and precious resource." I mentioned this.

In 2020, China waged economic war on Australia to get it to submit. China failed: "Australia is now emerging from three years of Chinese bullying in remarkably good shape." China thought it had the power to prevail. Can other nations learn lessons from Australia's successful resistance?

Obviously a South Asian neo-Nazi insurrectionist who attacked the White House gets charges downgraded. Or maybe the FBI infiltrated this one-man attack five months ago, and so prosecution is problematic. Tip to Instapundit.

ISW's review of the long battle for Bakhmut.

What's up with Prigozhin? "Prigozhin’s somewhat subtle and purposefully obscure threats of violence represent an inflection in his longstanding feuds with the Russian military establishment and select elite figures." I don't pretend to understand Russia'a internal political situation. But does Prigozhin have powerful allies in the government? Is he suicidal? Crazy? Or just in possession of big, clanking balls?

Robots versus jihadis--at sea. Do jihadis get the virgins in Paradise if an AI toaster frieps them?

The Storm Shadow in Ukraine.

Prigozhin said his forces have begun turning over Wagner frontage at Bakhmut to Russian regular formations.

The problem is that anything on Taiwan must be protected to keep the Chinese from destroying the weapons before they can be issued to troops: "The[House committee's] 10 recommendations [to deter China from attacking Taiwan] include establishing a war reserve stockpile of weapons in Taiwan, prioritizing weapons delivery for Taipei and authorizing multiyear munitions procurement contracts."

Ukraine may not be using F-16s in this war: "'It’s not about delivery just now,' said retired Gen. Philip M. Breedlove, the former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe. 'Ukraine is going to need an air force to defend itself because Russia will be back.'" If we'd acted back then they might be fighting now.

War is being waged: "A Chinese government espionage group has hacked into critical infrastructure in multiple locations, including the island territory of Guam[.]" A shaping operation. But disrupting communications would be useful at H-Hour.

Stories like this saying "default" would have a "catastrophic" effect on veterans are scare tactics that don't reflect what failing to raise the debt ceiling means. It's not an automatic disaster. If America can't borrow more money it means America must prioritize what it spends money on--you know, what it should be doing. We can pay our actual debts to avoid default. And we can pay to take care of veterans before we subsidize wealthy electric vehicle buyers and other green initiatives, for example. And if the administration chooses to pay the latter at the expense of veterans, the catastrophe is all on the administration. The worst only happens if the government engineers the worst to score political points.

Via Instapundit, two senators reintroduced legislation to "create a federal agency specifically empowered to regulate the internet, including online speech." I used to respect Democrats for their commitment to free speech and blue collar workers. I may have disagreed with means, but their intent was good. What is left to admire about the party today?

Russians may not support the invasion of Ukraine as much as we think. Sure. But fear of the government keeps them quiet. Only battlefield defeat will motivate opponents of sending their men to die in a losing war to take action. There was no revolution in 1945 despite eye-watering Russian casualties in the previous four years. But if defeats can't be hidden? Think 1905. Or 1917. That's when the West can offer Putin a negotiated "off ramp" to securely withdraw from Ukraine to deal with actual or potential civil unrest at home.

The bad news is that the dollar is vulnerable to a replacement global currency. The good news is no other currency can replace the dollar.

Macron struggles to reconnect with France. No doubt. Macron has been using France as a stepping stone for higher ambitions by connecting with the people he really values. But that platform is shaky now.

My school district got screwed by their religious faith. On the bright side, non-working electric school buses emit nothing! On the stupid side, the district wants even more electric buses. Now go and emit no more. Tip to Instapundit.

This seems like a reasonable Indian foreign policy: "engage America, manage China, cultivate Europe, reassure Russia." Can India maneuver between these forces? Clearly, managing China is the key. Without that success, engaging America without seeking active help is hard. Cultivating Europe gets tricky depending on whether or not Europe values trade with China over India when push comes to shove. And Russia might not be able to arm India if China demands its vassal cut off India.

I keep reading that because Russia has three times the population of Ukraine that Russia can just keep throwing men at Ukraine until Ukraine is overwhelmed. This is not true. First of all, it assumes Ukraine can't get a 3:1 casualty ratio. So far I don't think Ukraine has done that. But one big encirclement could achieve that with surrenders. But more to the point, people are not widgets to be expended. They are people with other people who love them. And who might not like being treated as expendable widgets. As I explained, Iran had a 3:1 edge in people over Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War. And had a big edge in fanaticism. But despite losing "only" twice as many troops as Iraq, Iran's troops stopped being willing to be part of human wave attacks.

France is reacting to Russia's threat to Europe by *checks notes* preparing for threats around the globe. France will not increase its land forces. It will have two divisions of 3 large brigades each. So, yeah: "Le Président’s grand design is boosting defence spending on space, cyber and oceans, while living for several years with less not more of the hardware and ordnance currently deciding the fate of Europe’s Eastern flank."

An American base in Turkey: "Referred to by the military as Site K, it has a high-powered radar that is key to NATO’s missile defense architecture, which also involves U.S. Navy missile defense missions based out of Romania and Spain." Romania has land-based Navy anti-missile missiles. Spain is where six American destroyers with anti-missile missiles are based. Well, I think four are, but now Spain will allow six.

Reusable space vehicles get better. The cost of getting into space keeps going down.

From conspiracy to regulatory framework. And now for something completely different:

 

Mali's bet on Wagner isn't working out. As if securing Mali is Wagner's objective in Mali!

Long Covid hits 10% of Omicron cases in the U.S. I wonder if this is common for all similar viruses. But only post-Covid has gotten the attention. And what about other countries?

Huh, I ran across an old post from back when Ukraine's army was still shaken from the anti-Russian revolution. I speculated about how Ukraine could resist a Russian invasion. Considering the situation at the time, I think it holds up pretty well.

Enemies of the state. And law enforcement isn't the only weapon to attack such enemies. We need tar and feathers to reverse weaponization of our institutions. But I'd settle for prison time. Saving our democracy and rule of law requires it. Tips to Instapundit. 

One way the left gets its policies enforced is by filing suit "against" a federal government fully on the plaintiff's side. The government then settles the suit with an agreement that pays money and/or implements policies that the government-plaintiff cabal wants. I think Congress should require all such agreements to take the form of a bill that then has to be debated, passed, and signed by the president to become law. I don't like bypassing and undermining the legislative process. But this won't happen until conservative plaintiff's follow the odious trail set by the left.

Finally a limit on legalized government theft of property? Tip to Instapundit.

Russia is making Ukraine's case for F-16s to attack the planes dropping the bombs: "The Russian military has resorted to dropping massive Soviet-era bombs in an effort to circumvent Ukrainian air defenses that have proven more than a match for long range missiles and drones." Tip to Instapundit.

Has the British civil servant "blob" won?

Yes, Minister.

With America visibly standing with it, the Philippines is looking for regional allies: "In particular, Vietnam has emerged as a pivotal player in the Philippines’ emerging regional strategy to constrain and roll back China’s ambitions in the hotly contested and geostrategically crucial maritime area."

From T-50 to A-50 to FA-50. 

Eager to be subjects of the proto-empire: "Left-wing Europhiles are already strategising the means by which a Labour government might take Britain back into the EU. They talk of using a first term to blame all of Britain’s ills on Brexit, softening up the public for what is to come, then using a second term to begin the process of rejoining." I've already noticed the blaming of everything bad on Brexit. Perhaps Britain will need a bureaucratic War of 1812 to finally convince the empire to stay away and make the best of their former territory's independence.

Don't worry about Russia putting nukes in Belarus. It adds nothing to Russia's nuclear ability. It's mostly bluster to frighten the West into letting Russia defeat Ukraine. At best for Russia, the move deters a NATO invasion of Belarus. Which was highly unlikely anyway. At worst, if Belarus revolts against Russian domination, Belarus will have a nuclear arsenal of its own to deter Russia. Belarus would not make the same mistake former Soviet states like Ukraine made when they gave up Soviet nukes for Russian promises to leave them alone.

Ukraine apparently attacked Russian amphibious ships in the port of Berdiansk, on the Sea of Azov.

Target: "Vietnam on Thursday accused a Chinese survey vessel and its escorts of violating its sovereignty, and demanded that Beijing remove the ships from its waters."

The Times of London ended my email access to their site. I signed up for it a quarter century ago when the Internet was still fairly young. At some point I forgot about it. Then when I wanted to read a paywalled article I somehow remembered my password after figuring out the correct email to use. So I started using it occasionally when I'd see a link on the Real Clear sites to an article of interest. No more. It seems like a final nail in the coffin for the end of an era.

This is not how rule of law works. Not even close: "We now have multiple whistleblowers alleging interference from the Justice Department to slow-walk investigations or shield the president’s son." Can't have "the Big Guy" getting caught as collateral damage, eh? And it is the flip side of why I knew Trump hadn't cheated on his taxes as Democrats constantly claimed. Who believes the IRS wouldn't have either nailed him for it or leaked the information to a friendly media if he had? Tip to Instapundit.

LOL

 

I wasn't worried about the Taliban using anything complex we left behind: "While the Taliban has shown it can make use of helicopters and some leftover planes in response to humanitarian disasters or for show, it is seen as being far from re-creating a functional air force capable of securing the skies in the event of foreign incursions or domestic insurgencies." And not much captured was terribly complex. Not that I'm happy with our own-goal defeat there.

Russian ground forces are being stretched by the need to replace Wagner forces on the Bakhmut front and Ukraine's perceived threats to the Russia-Ukraine border.

Is the European Union serious about defense capabilities since Russia re-invaded Ukraine in 2022? Seemingly. But there's a catch: "This will certainly require a clearer understanding of the EU’s and its member states’ joint goals, the division of labor with NATO, and a stronger EU-level coordination in terms of procurement and defense industrial cooperation." I don't think the EU accepts a division of labor. I think the EU wants to destroy NATO in order to eject America from Europe. But I admit I'm biased.

The right stuff. Tip to Instapundit.

Biden's EPA is waging war on a robust electric network. Is this going to be a brownout (and blackout) summer across America? If this is deliberate, officials should go to prison and their bosses, too. If incompetence, officials should be fired and their bosses thrown out of office. It's a cabal of hateful morons. They seemingly believe that America is so robust that no amount of this faith-based nonsense is too much for America to absorb and continue on. It has been true for decades. But the margin of morons has gotten pretty thin. Now go and emit no more.

The North Korean military has many substitutes for victory: "There are many reasons why the Inmun Gun (North Korean armed forces), despite its large size (about a million troops) is considered ineffective. One of the least talked about (in the media) problem is the growing use of bribes within the North Korean armed forces. ... The North Korean armed forces has lots of other, and older, problems. " Don't think our military is immune to losing focus. I mean, when the vice president essentially tells West Point cadets to shrug off that whole Afghanistan Skedaddle Debacle and to keep their eyes on climate change, we're truly effed, aren't we?

The EU loyalists in Britain are a persistent lot: "Apparently, it is fine to trumpet when 'Brexit Britain' is doing badly, but unacceptable to point out when other major economies are faring worse." 

Will Sultan Erdogan win? "Voters in Turkey returned to the polls Sunday to decide whether the country’s longtime leader stretches his increasingly authoritarian rule into a third decade, or is unseated by a challenger who has promised to restore a more democratic society."

Nigeria, where there are mounting deaths in "continuing clashes between nomadic cattle herders and farming communities in northwest and central regions of the West African nation, including more than 100 this month in Plateau state." The article mentions that the herders are largely Moslem and farmers largely Christian. But fails to note that the herders are the aggressors. Also, the fight hasn't recently become sectarian. It's long been that way. It's ugly.

Enriched Red Herring?

We are focused on Iran's level of uranium enrichment. After all this time raising the issue and warning the Iranian mullah-run government, the Iranians know that. But somehow we believe Iran has taken no steps to account for that focus.

Israel claims Iran has enough enriched uranium--if further enriched--for five nukes:

On a visit to Athens on Thursday, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told his Greek counterpart Nikos Panagiotopoulos that Iran has enriched enough uranium for five nuclear bombs, warning that the Islamic Republic intends to continue the enrichment process.

“Make no mistake: Iran will not be satisfied by a single nuclear bomb. So far, Iran has gained material enriched to 20% and 60% for five nuclear bombs. Iranian progress and enrichment to 90% would be a grave mistake on Iran’s part and could ignite the region,” said Gallant. 

US officials have maintained that Iran has accelerated its enrichment but that it remains unclear if Tehran has decided to cross the weaponization line.

Sigh. Iran has been running massively costly nuclear and missile programs, counting the direct costs, the lost opportunities for investments in productive areas, and the costs of sanctions.

But it is somehow unclear if Iran wants nuclear missiles? Well, no. US officials often say it is unclear if Iran intends to cross the weaponization line. But that's different than saying Iran doesn't want nukes.

Yes, crossing the weaponization line is dangerous. Iran may think that because Democrats love mullah-run Iran, persistently believing Iran a close friend we haven't tried hard enough to make, that their nuclear weapons infrastructure is safe from America.

But the Iranians can't afford to assume that Israel can be restrained by America.

My old speculation is that Iran knows uranium enriched enough for warheads is a red line for Israel. So enriched uranium may be a red herring and long-range program that hides the initial Iranian nuclear arsenal:

If Iran can announce both the ability to make nuclear bomb material and the possession of actual nuclear weapons--perhaps by detonating one in a test on their own territory--Tehran would quite possibly deter an attack on Iran's nuclear infrastructure.

We're not dealing with idiots. If the Iranian mullahs believe there are red lines that trigger Israeli or American action, why wouldn't they take counter-actions rather than just blindly cross those lines and provide a pretext for military action against them?

I do wonder if North Korea has an export market for their nukes in mind. That's a big lacuna in our approach, no?

And I wonder if those "US officials" know damn well that an Iranian decision to cross the weaponization line is a red herring masking the obvious goal of buying nuclear missiles first. 

I really think there are US officials who believe Iranian nukes will be a stabilizing factor in the Middle East that will promote everybody to just sit down and resolve all their disputes like reasonable people.

Which is another lacuna in our approach. A deliberate one. But a gaping hole in our logic nonetheless.

Have a super sparkly day.

UPDATE: I really don't think international pressure is keeping Iran from crossing the nuclear weapons threshold. 

Announcing nuclear warheads before having reliable missiles to carry them is a more likely explanation:

Iran on Thursday unveiled a new ballistic missile that can reportedly strike targets within 2,000 kilometers, or 1,240 miles, according to media reports.

Missiles are a key portion of my speculation above.

NOTE: The illustration was made with DALL-E.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

Thrust and Parry in INDOPACOM

China runs into a wall at sea.

A line in the sea is drawn: 

Secretary Austin and President Marcos reaffirmed the United States and the Philippines’ ironclad alliance commitments under the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty and their shared resolve to defend against armed attacks on their aircraft, public vessels, and armed forces – to include their respective Coast Guards – in the Pacific, including anywhere in the South China Sea. 

You may recall Sierra Madre. 

Will China risk winning a tiny war with the Philippines to maintain the illegal blockades? As time goes on the answer may increasingly be "yes" if China's forces improve and America's rebuilding of naval power in the Pacific falters. 

But I think we have an option before we have to back a Filipino run at China's sea blockade.  

George Friedman judges the Philippines may not have wanted to be stuck in the middle when two giant elephants stomp around:

The Philippines had found itself in – or maneuvered itself into – the tension between China and the United States. 

But when one elephant seemingly rejects productive talks because it wants to take territory from you and the other only wants access to bases--which America proved it will leave when asked--the choice is clear. 

China took the L on this effort to find a gap out into the Pacific, as Friedman notes: 

Xi’s Philippines gambit appears to have failed, or rather backfired, creating another major block between the South China Sea and the Pacific for Beijing.

The logical follow-up to making it too hard for China to expand out to sea against America and its allies is to divert China's attention and interests inland.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

Navy Leadership. What is It?

The Navy's admirals don't seem to realize that they need to get serious about preparing their service for a war in which American control of the seas is not assured.

Will we run out of ships to reload before we run out of missiles? 

Defense Department comptroller Mike McCord told United States Naval Institute News that shipyards can’t even produce two warships a year, making Congress’ request for three unrealistic.

Yeah. 

But to be fair to the shipyards, the Navy as a whole has problems: 

The Navy is the most hobbled by readiness failures among the four US military service branches, according to congressional auditors, a worrisome assessment given the crucial role it would play in any potential conflict with China.

The Marines aren't pleased:

The [Navy's]  inability to keep ships running is also having serious effects on the operations of the Marine Corps, which relies on Navy ships to transport and position them near mission areas, to the frustration of officials in that branch.

Unfortunately for the Marines, the Navy is focused like a laser on other "problems".* So good luck at the ass end of nowhere. And good luck to America, too.

Also from the first article: 

"We would love to live in a world where the yards could make three a year, or three submarines a year, but we don’t live in that world," McCord said.

We may not live in a world where we can make three subs per year. But we live in a world where we need to make three per year.

But no worries! We have Navy leadership with a long history of fighting for naval superiority. They'll right the listing ship!

Wait. What? (Tip to Instapundit) Batting .333 is great in baseball. But when the Naval War College is indistinguishable from any woke civilian college, we have a major national security problem. Do read it all. We have massive numbers of colleges eager to do that kind of stuff  and only a handful of service academies to prepare for war.

The Navy sure is focused like a laser on its real missions, eh? I mean, come on Navy. FFS! (tip to Instapundit)

This has to change. Because woke lips sink ships.

UPDATE: Priorities:

Navy officials dismissed critics of its promotion of LGBTQ+ Pride as "bigots" and "a**holes," according to emails obtained by Fox News Digital.

How many groups within the Navy get this kind of special treatment? The Irish? Furries? S & M fetishists? Lights-out-and-missionary-position-only-and-when-married types? Left-handers?

And yes, two of those apply to me. Haters.

Mission readiness should be the only mission. If some sailors are mistreating other sailors in a unit, the unit leadership should deal with those mistreating fellow sailors. I'm of course not in favor of anybody who is serving our country getting unfairly mistreated.

*My harshness toward Navy leadership isn't motivated by Army bias. When push comes to shove I believe the Navy has priority over the Army given our basic geography. Without naval superiority, our shores will become our first line of defense. I'm harsh because of the high stakes. And because I expect much better.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

The China Threat is Good Enough for Government Work

Don't panic about China's growing military. But don't whistle past the graveyard assuming all is well. Work the problem.

Is the Chinese military over-rated? 

The commissioning of vast quantities of new aircraft and seacraft in China’s armed forces in recent years is certainly impressive. It commands the greatest attention at home and abroad and is straightforward to identify and quantify. But system specifications and inventories do not by themselves ensure success in battle. Other “soft” factors, such as quality of personnel, effectiveness of training, morale, and command-and-control culture are also extremely important, yet difficult to measure. Moreover, meaningful combat effectiveness is the result of multiple elements all combining as a whole. To be effective, a military not only needs sound doctrine, organization, weaponry, personnel training, logistics and culture, but also needs each of these components to blend together. 

I assume China's military isn't as scary as its shiny new weapons look. I don't hide from that issue.

Although I'm reticent to underestimate them as Americans underestimated Japanese capabilities before Pearl Harbor. 

And yes, I wonder if accurate information reaches the top in China. Which makes me worry their leaders may over-estimate what the PLA can achieve. 

But China's military only has to be better than its opponent. I'm not confident America has the margin of superiority to defeat the Chinese in a limited local Chinese operation. As that initial author advises:

The specter of a Potemkin military being exposed during a military attack on Taiwan is neither a safe assumption nor a reason for reassurance. 

And if China's objective for victory in its primary operation is smaller in scope than we've assumed, that margin may be narrow enough for China. And that kind of "local" victory could have global impacts.

The bottom line? Don't worry that the Chinese can run rings around us, as Grant advised his skittish subordinates:

Oh, I am heartily tired of hearing about what Lee is going to do. Some of you always seem to think he is suddenly going to turn a double somersault, and land in our rear and on both of our flanks at the same time. Go back to your command, and try to think what we are going to do ourselves, instead of what Lee is going to do.

But do have a healthy respect for the PLA and build a margin for error in our own forces and plans should the campaign turn out longer and tougher than we hope. 

Victory is not America's birthright.

UPDATE: China's drive to develop a Western-style military. Impressive so far. But with the PLA having the defense of the Chinese Communist Party its primary job, can it achieve that? I worry Western military's are politicizing, closing the gap for China.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.