Don't panic about China's growing military. But don't whistle past the graveyard assuming all is well. Work the problem.
Is the Chinese military over-rated?
The commissioning of vast quantities of new aircraft and seacraft in China’s armed forces in recent years is certainly impressive. It commands the greatest attention at home and abroad and is straightforward to identify and quantify. But system specifications and inventories do not by themselves ensure success in battle. Other “soft” factors, such as quality of personnel, effectiveness of training, morale, and command-and-control culture are also extremely important, yet difficult to measure. Moreover, meaningful combat effectiveness is the result of multiple elements all combining as a whole. To be effective, a military not only needs sound doctrine, organization, weaponry, personnel training, logistics and culture, but also needs each of these components to blend together.
I assume China's military isn't as scary as its shiny new weapons look. I don't hide from that issue.
Although I'm reticent to underestimate them as Americans underestimated Japanese capabilities before Pearl Harbor.
And yes, I wonder if accurate information reaches the top in China. Which makes me worry their leaders may over-estimate what the PLA can achieve.
But China's military only has to be better than its opponent. I'm not confident America has the margin of superiority to defeat the Chinese in a limited local Chinese operation. As that initial author advises:
The specter of a Potemkin military being exposed during a military attack on Taiwan is neither a safe assumption nor a reason for reassurance.
And if China's objective for
victory in its primary operation is smaller in scope than we've assumed, that margin may be narrow enough for China. And that kind of "local" victory could have global impacts.
The bottom line? Don't worry that the Chinese can run rings around us, as Grant advised his skittish subordinates:
Oh, I am heartily tired of hearing about what Lee is going to do. Some of you always seem to think he is suddenly going to turn a double somersault, and land in our rear and on both of our flanks at the same time. Go back to your command, and try to think what we are going to do ourselves, instead of what Lee is going to do.
But do have a healthy respect for the PLA and build a margin for error in our own forces and plans should the campaign turn out longer and tougher than we hope.
Victory is not America's birthright.
UPDATE: China's drive to develop a Western-style military. Impressive so far. But with the PLA having the defense of the Chinese Communist Party its primary job, can it achieve that? I worry Western military's are politicizing, closing the gap for China.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
