China runs into a wall at sea.
Secretary Austin and President Marcos reaffirmed the United States and the Philippines’ ironclad alliance commitments under the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty and their shared resolve to defend against armed attacks on their aircraft, public vessels, and armed forces – to include their respective Coast Guards – in the Pacific, including anywhere in the South China Sea.
You may recall Sierra Madre.
Will China risk winning a tiny war with the Philippines to maintain the illegal blockades? As time goes on the answer may increasingly be "yes" if China's forces improve and America's rebuilding of naval power in the Pacific falters.
But I think we have an option before we have to back a Filipino run at China's sea blockade.
The Philippines had found itself in – or maneuvered itself into – the tension between China and the United States.
But when one elephant seemingly rejects productive talks because it wants to take territory from you and the other only wants access to bases--which America proved it will leave when asked--the choice is clear.
China took the L on this effort to find a gap out into the Pacific, as Friedman notes:
Xi’s Philippines gambit appears to have failed, or rather backfired, creating another major block between the South China Sea and the Pacific for Beijing.
The logical follow-up to making it too hard for China to expand out to sea against America and its allies is to divert China's attention and interests inland.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
