Are we on the cusp of a wave of prosperity that we cannot see in the middle of the churn that is propelling us toward an Information Revolution that improves all of our human systems that so obviously no longer cope?
My disgust with the lack of competence of our ruling elites and institutions depresses me about our future. But at the same time, I've never relied on the competence of the vast majority of people who run our systems. I've had far more faith in our systems to operate despite fallible humans rather than because of the humans staffing them. That has been the foundation of my basic optimism about life.
Before I started this post I had added to a Weekend Date Dump this entry (edited for paragraph breaks when I moved it here instead):
I have confidence that our country will muddle through based on two observations.
One, despite the news media amplifying political differences (call it blue and red journalism rather than yellow journalism), most legislative issues actually receive broad support. That's what I saw in my career at the state level. Nobody sees that cooperation, however.
And two, the bitter hatred is mostly on the news media reporting on small, vocal activist groups; and in social media, where a tiny minority of fanatical users generate the most hate in a medium that only a minority of people actually use.
At some point, I believe the policies based on those two mirages will collapse. Not before doing serious damage to America. But I think America will recover and prosper.
Your personal outcome will of course vary greatly as this damage passes through our system. I know I'm worried personally.
And then I read an article that seems to address my contradictory feelings about the future.
That article asks if we are we in the middle of an information revolution that propels prosperity by reordering our industrial age systems?
Oral traditions were written down, forming the basis of organized religion. Scientific enquiries and philosophical debates could transcend the limits of space and time, as scholars could read the words of their predecessors.
I've read others discussing shorter cycles that indicate renewed prosperity based on adjustments.
That quoted illustration highlights something I've observed: how difficult it is to collect all the information that has been written or spoken about a subject I wish to study.
On more than one occasion I've noted that my article on an issue isn't mentioned in someone else's article or study. Of course, I've also noticed articles too late to do me any good when writing about something. My apologies to those authors.
Will this information revolution unfolding elevate enquiries and
debates by enabling us to find the best and most relevant information we
need using AI?
I admit one of my first efforts to use AI was to find information on a particular topic I was working on. I failed. I probably didn't try hard enough to use search terms well enough. I certainly know from mere Google and its predecessors that searching is a learning process as you discover the proper terms, concepts, and names to search with after the first nearly ignorant queries are made.
Perhaps AI--real AI, and not the leftist-programmed early models of AI that we are now seeing--will do all that iterative learning and searching in a blink of an eye to find the needed information.
Will this Information Revolution reorder so much of our society in enabling something better that the dislocations so many of us feel hides the advances that are coming? After all, my unease quoted above is--amazingly given the article I read--centered around mirages based on the false nature of the information we are so sure is true.
Maybe the human brain is incapable of even using good information if it conflicts with biases. Maybe biases are built on an evolutionary need to use incomplete information to identify patterns good enough to survive. But maybe just as the Neolithic and Industrial Revolutions did, the Information Revolution will drive changes to our systems to rely on and use better information despite the flawed humans who run the systems:
This is both a wonderful and a terrifying thing.These are still early days, but the Information Revolution seems fated to be more dramatic still. A cascade of interlocking, interrelated social and technological change is driving global upheaval at an unprecedented speed. Before its work is done, the Information Revolution is likely to drive social, political, cultural, economic, and geopolitical transformations more sweeping and profound than anything the Industrial Revolution produced.
Perhaps my current unease coexisting with hope will be resolved with the hopeful path, after all. Perhaps my nature feels--or, in an explanation more favorable to my ego, my brain is pulling together inputs that lead me to subconsciously judge--the optimistic outcome even as my eyes cannot see the source of hope.
Maybe in the midst of the churn that signifies creative destruction, we fail to see the creation as we focus on the destruction.
Or I'm whistling past the graveyard as America and the Anglosphere choose to decline.
Even if that decline "only" means I--and people like me--will be collateral damage trampled on the way to humanity's--and more importantly, America's--better future. I guess as long as my children prosper in that better American future, I will be able to reconcile myself to my fate. Hey, I've had a good run.
Do read all of the articles. And a tip to Instapundit for both.
UPDATE: Are we too pessimistic about the so-called decline of the West?
China’s assertions about the decline of the West reveal an underlying anxiety. After all, if liberal democracy is failing, why do Chinese officials consistently express their fear of it? The fact that leaders of the Communist Party of China have instructed rank-and-file members to engage in an “intense struggle” against liberal-democratic values indicates that they view open societies as an existential threat.
I remain hopeful about the long run but concerned about the short run.
UPDATE: If you prefer your speculation dark (tip to Instapundit):
First of all, a bit like communist China, America and Europe are – let’s be honest – increasingly totalitarian societies, in which it is no longer enough even to refrain from speaking out against Big Sister; no, you must love and affirm Big Sister, and all her values and beliefs, and all her progressive works, and you must say so constantly and at high volume or be instantly suspected as a dangerous, hateful, reactionary threat not only to the regime but to all humanity.
I retain hope that American exceptionalism, federal system, and sheer size will finally overcome the bout of Wilsonian totalitarian madness gripping our country.
And I hope that a renewed American commitment to freedom will once again infect Europe with freedom.
Hey, at heart I'm an optimist despite a strong steak of cynicism about actual people.
NOTE: The illustration was made by DALL-E using the query "a photograph of a man torn between fear of economic ruin and hope that artificial intelligence will unleash an information revolution".
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
